Cam Ward opens his pro career at Denver, and that doesn’t seem great, with the Broncos leading the league in sacks last year and having the league’s best cornerback. But some other numbers suggest the matchup isn’t quite as dire as you might think.
Most notably, Denver’s defense, despite being one of the stronger units in the league, tends to prefer to shut down the run, forcing teams to the air. They ranked 3rd in run defense last year. And with that being the case, teams tended to pass against them.
Despite the pass rush and Patrick Surtain, Denver last year allowed an average of 242 passing yards per game. Only eight teams allowed more. And the Broncos allowed over twice as many touchdowns on passes (22) rather than runs (10). Now, that total of 22 touchdowns is good (it ties for 7th), but Ward seems more likely to throw a touchdown than to simply get shut out.
I’m not suggesting Ward is this week’s sleeper quarterback (I think Joe Flacco is that guy). But Ward seems reasonable enough as a low-level Superflex in a 12-team league.
For the historical numbers, they’re a little better than you might expect. In the last 10 years, 17 rookie quarterbacks have started in Week 1; 11 of them posted top-20 numbers in their first start (in comparison with the other 31 quarterbacks starting in that week). Four put up top-10 numbers (tagged with double dots), while another three made the top 15 (single dots).
Going further back, Cam Newton and Robert Griffin I recall torched opponents in their first games.
I don’t think there’s any chance of Ward being a Newton-Griffin type guy out of the box, but I’ll give him a puncher’s chance at top-20 numbers.
| ROOKIES STARTING IN WEEK 1 (last 10 yrs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Opp | Result | Points | Rk |
| 2015 | •• Marcus Mariota, Ten. | at T.B. | W, 42-14 | 24.96 | 3 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | Ten. | L, 14-42 | 14.20 | 16 |
| 2016 | • Carson Wentz, Phi. | Cle. | W, 29-10 | 19.22 | 11 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | NYG | L, 19-20 | 10.28 | 26 |
| 2017 | •• DeShone Kizer, Cle. | Pitt. | L, 18-21 | 18.58 | 9 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | at Det. | W, 48-17 | 13.82 | 18 |
| 2019 | • Kyler Murray, Ari. | Det. | T, 27-27 | 21.62 | 11 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | LAC | L, 13-16 | 16.32 | 20 |
| 2021 | • Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | at Hou. | L, 21-37 | 19.08 | 15 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | at Car. | L, 14-19 | 18.32 | 19 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | Mia. | L, 16-17 | 15.24 | 23 |
| 2023 | •• Anthony Richardson, Ind. | Jac. | L, 21-31 | 20.92 | 4 |
| 2023 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | at Balt. | L, 9-25 | 9.68 | 21 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | at Atl. | L, 10-24 | 7.54 | 25 |
| 2024 | •• Jayden Daniels, Was. | at T.B. | L, 20-37 | 28.16 | 3 |
| 2024 | Bo Nix, Den. | at Sea. | L, 20-26 | 11.02 | 20 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | Ten. | W, 24-17 | 7.22 | 29 |
| 2025 | Cam Ward, Ten. | at Den. | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan