Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Do teams with bad defenses score more points? Strategies for best-ball leagues. Isiah Pacheco and Tyreek Hill looking to put together comeback seasons. And more.

Question 1

We keep 5 players in my league. My first 4 are Hurts, King Henry, Montgomery and Chuba, but I’m having trouble deciding between Pacheco and Tyreek for the fifth spot. We award 10 points for rushing TDs, 6 for receiving TDs, 0.5 points for each 10 yards rushing/receiving. If I went solely by the customized rankings, I’d keep Pacheco. He’s #29 overall, Tyreek #52. Tyreek is getting old, and he disappointed last year. But we can start 3 RBs max, so Pacheco wouldn’t necessarily be a starter, and he may be in a committee. On the other hand, RBs do get hurt. Thoughts?

Eric Pryne (Vashon, WA)

Let’s see what those guys look like the August. I saw Andy Reid was saying something a week or so back about Pacheco looking really good. I’m not sure he was really healthy last year, coming back from the broken leg. He’s in a contract year, with this being a huge season for him. In the last eight games of the 2023 season, Pacheco averaged 79 rushing and 18 receiving yards, with 8 TDs – top-5 numbers for a running back. If you were guaranteed those numbers, you would slot him ahead of your other three backs. Similarly, I would not be comfortable ruling out Hill right now. He was pretty ordinary last year, but I think that was fueled in part by playing all year with a wrist injury that required multiple offseason surgeries. That might have contributed to the team dialing his role way back last year. Now they’ve traded away Jonnu Smith, making me think they’ll probably be returning to a much busier Hill. He averaged 7.2 catches for 106 yards in the two seasons prior to last year, with 21 touchdowns in 33 games. He’s 31, but I’m thinking he’s got another big season left in him.

Add Comment

Question 2

I received your magazine in the mail and just finished reading it cover to cover. I want to thank you and your team for continuing to produce such a high quality product. I've reading reading annually since 1992. Just having a magazine is great for us old timers; not everyone wants to be on their phone 24/7. A couple random observations, 1) teams with awful defenses are looked at as a negative (Carolina/Cincinnati for example) when I want my players in high-scoring contests and I want them to have horrible teammates on the other side of the ball. 2) No mention of Andrei Iosivas in the WR or Cincinnati sections? I think he'll have a surprisingly good season as Higgins can't stay healthy and every meaningful stat for him improved dramatically from 2023 to 2024.

CURT THOMPSON (Castle Rock, CO)

I will concede that a team like Cincinnati should be involved in more shootouts, but I don’t see a bad defense as a big selling point. If we look at the 20 bottom-5 defenses of the last four seasons, only seven of those teams had above-average offenses. I see eight with bottom-10 offenses (black dots) but only four with top-10 offenses (in bold). (In the chart below, the rankings were determined using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards gained rushing or passing).

With Iosivas, he’s been unusually good around the goal line. In his first two seasons, they’ve thrown 14 passes his way when they’ve been inside the 10-yard line, and he’s caught 11 of them, including 10 touchdowns. But he’s just not fast enough, and there are other players there that muddy the waters when trying to go down the “what about when Higgins gets hurt?” road. Mike Gesicki can step up and play a much bigger role. And Jermaine Burton (I think) is their preferred third receiver if he can grow up. When Higgins was hurt for the first three weeks last year, Iosivas caught 10 passes for 85 yards and 3 TDs. But in the other three games Higgins was hurt, Iosivas caught 3 passes for 39 yards, with one touchdown. (I wouldn’t roster him).

1 Comment | Add Comment

Question 3

Would you review your differences in strategy when drafting for a best-ball league rather than a league with a weekly starting line-up?

Don Neve (Wisconsin Rapids, WI)

Some like to go after more hit-or-miss players (specifically, big-play receivers) figuring that they’ll be getting some huge games along the way, with the quiet weeks not mattering as much. But I’m not in that camp. For me, I focus less “best ball” and more on “no roster moves.” What you draft is what you’re riding with, so it becomes a battle of attrition. You’re trying to build a seaworthy vessel that will still be floating after 18 weeks. Draft guys that you’re confident will do what you’re expecting them to do. Formats vary, but I typically like to carry two reliable quarterbacks. While three quarterbacks are obviously better, I prefer to use that roster spot to add another field player. That probably will be another wide receiver, and if he scores 5-6 TDs, there he’ll be chipping in some contributing weeks. I’ve done some studies on one vs. two vs. three players at the kicker and defense position. I don’t recall the specifics, but I concluded that two is the correct number. In the best-ball format, I do more pairing with running backs. That is, I make more of an effort to draft the backup who comes from the same NFL team as my starter. If I select James Conner, for example, I definitely want Trey Benson. This way, there’s a much better chance of that backup showing up just when you need him. Mostly, just keep the ball in play. Just keep firing off good, steady picks. No need to be a hero. That’s the approach I always used in the Fanex FAD competition, and it always worked well. Andy and I combined for the winning entry in that league last year. I was in the 12-team FAD 17 times, with 7 championships, 3 second-place finishes and 3 above-average. Just 4 lesser years (9th, 9th, 10th, 11th). (I’ve had more success in best ball than in stand-alone leagues.)

1 Comment | Add Comment

Question 4

I asked this question last year, but I did not receive a detailed answer. Our league also scores half point per carry. You did address it, but I happen to think/know that this makes a huge difference in the early rounds. Can you please revisit this situation?

derek king ()

A bunch of running backs will carry the ball 200 times. They’ll be getting an extra 100 points in your league. Those who carry it 300 times will get an extra 150 points. Those guys who log a bunch of carries – Henry, Kyren, Bijan, Taylor – will be more valuable. Per attempt bonuses can be reasonably approximated using the custom scoring feature at the website. While there’s no mechanism for carries, then can be folded into the yardage area. That is, if a player averages 5 yards per carry, he’s getting 2 points for every 10 rushing yards in your league – 1 for the 10 yards, and 1 for the 2 rushing attempts. But we can just put him down for 2 points for every 10 rushing yards and no points for attempts, and we wind up in the same place. Below see the top 20 running backs from last year. Collectively, these guys averaged 4.7 yards per attempt last year. So let’s use the approximation of an extra 1.1 points for every 10 rushing yards gained. (So in custom scoring, change the 1 point for every 10 yards to 2.1 points). Using this approximation and plugging in last year’s stats, the system adequately handles the players. There are only four backs who come out over 2 percent higher than they actually performed, and all did so by averaging well over 5 yards per carry – Barkley, Henry, Irving. But if you backed up to last August, we wouldn’t have projected any of those backs to gobble up yards at that rate. I think if you use this system in the custom scoring, it will get you where you want to go.

Add Comment

Question 5

This may be a fool’s errand, but I’m trying to identify the candidates who could be this year’s Saquon Barkley - running backs and receivers who surprise with career years and become fantasy difference-makers. I was thinking Josh Jacobs might be one. Who else could fit that profile?

Paul Owers (Boynton Beach, FL)

Jacobs was really good last year, no? He scored 16 touchdowns in his last 12 games. Everybody in San Francisco keeps talking about how good Christian McCaffrey looks. He’s 29, but if they can keep him healthy, he should one of the top few running backs. When I was looking at the running backs, I was surprised how similar Jonathan Taylor looked to the other two big backs in the top 10 (Barkley, Henry). Bijan is very good – the No. 1 back on my board. At wide receiver, there are the obvious candidates – Lamb and the LSU guys – but let’s also think about Nico Collins and Tyreek Hill. Collins is definitely the No. 1 option in Houston, and he’s shown he can be a big-time guy. With Hill, he’s older, but I think there will be a swing back his way this year – he’s healthy, and the Dolphins traded away Jonnu Smith.

Add Comment