Fantasy News
I don’t want to spoil it for you, but I’ve figured out how things are going to end this year, based on team’s current records and what they’ve got left in the final five weeks of the season.
AFC
Titans and Jets will have first-round byes. Steelers and Broncos (with an 8-8 record) will be the other division winners, and Colts and Patriots will be the wildcards. I don’t want to also ruin the postseason for you, but the Colts will be a shoo-in to win at Denver in the first round of the playoffs.
NFC
Giants and Bucs will have the first-round byes. Arizona and Chicago will be the other division winners (though to be fair, the NFC North is essentially too close to call – I’ve got the Bears, Packers and Vikings all finishing within a tenth of 8.8 wins (they might all finish at 9-7). Wild cards will be Carolina and Dallas.
The ranking of the 32 teams below is not a “Power Poll” like you see in other publications. Rather, it’s the expected win total for each team, using its current win-loss record and the projection of how the team will do in its remaining five games.
Wins TEAM (remaining wins)
13.5 NY Giants (3.5)
13.1 Tennessee (3.1)
11.8 NY Jets (3.8)
11.2 Indianapolis (4.2)
10.9 Tampa Bay (2.9)
10.8 Pittsburgh (2.8)
10.6 New England (3.6)
10.4 Carolina (2.4)
10.4 Arizona (3.4)
10.2 Baltimore (3.2)
10.1 Dallas (3.1)
9.8 Washington (2.8)
9.7 Atlanta (2.7)
8.9 New Orleans (2.9)
8.9 Chicago (2.9)
8.8 Green Bay (3.8)
8.7 Miami (2.7)
8.7 Minnesota (2.7)
8.3 Buffalo (2.3)
7.9 Philadelphia (2.9)
7.7 Denver (1.7)
7.1 San Diego (3.1)
6.2 Houston (2.2)
5.2 Jacksonville (1.2)
5.1 Cleveland (1.1)
4.5 San Francisco (1.5)
4.5 Oakland (1.5)
3.5 St. Louis (1.5)
3.4 Kansas City (2.4)
3.1 Seattle (1.1)
2.9 Cincinnati (1.9)
.7 Detroit (.7)
—Ian Allan
SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
A look at each team’s schedule. For remaining games:
90% = almost certain to win
65% = most likely will win
50% = game could go either way
35% = most likely will lose
10% = almost certain to lose
Arizona
win San Francisco (A)
win Miami (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win Dallas (H)
loss Carolina (A)
win St. Louis (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Seattle (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
45% Philadelphia (A)
95% St. Louis (H)
60% Minnesota (H)
40% New England (A)
95% Seattle (H)
Atlanta
win Detroit (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win Kansas City (H)
loss Carolina (A)
win Green Bay (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
win Oakland (A)
win New Orleans (H)
loss Denver (H)
win Carolina (H)
40% San Diego (A)
35% New Orleans (A)
60% Tampa Bay (H)
40% Minnesota (A)
95% St. Louis (H)
Baltimore
win Cincinnati (H)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Miami (A)
win Oakland (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Houston (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
80% Cincinnati (A)
60% Washington (H)
55% Pittsburgh (H)
30% Dallas (A)
90% Jacksonville (H)
Buffalo
win Seattle (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
win Oakland (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Arizona (A)
win San Diego (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
win Kansas City (A)
77% San Francisco (H)
55% Miami (H)
25% NY Jets (A)
45% Denver (A)
25% New England (H)
Carolina
win San Diego (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Kansas City (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win New Orleans (H)
win Arizona (H)
win Oakland (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
35% Green Bay (A)
65% Tampa Bay (H)
85% Denver (H)
15% NY Giants (A)
40% New Orleans (A)
Chicago
win Indianapolis (A)
loss Carolina (A)
loss Tampa Bay (H)
win Philadelphia (H)
win Detroit (A)
loss Atlanta (A)
win Minnesota (H)
win Detroit (H)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
win St. Louis (A)
45% Minnesota (A)
80% Jacksonville (H)
55% New Orleans (H)
50% Green Bay (H)
55% Houston (A)
Cincinnati
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
loss Dallas (A)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Houston (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
tie Philadelphia (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
20% Baltimore (H)
2% Indianapolis (A)
25% Washington (H)
45% Cleveland (A)
50% Kansas City (H)
Cleveland
loss Dallas (H)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Baltimore (A)
win Cincinnati (A)
win NY Giants (H)
loss Washington (A)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
loss Denver (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Houston (H)
15% Indianapolis (H)
10% Tennessee (A)
20% Philadelphia (A)
55% Cincinnati (H)
10% Pittsburgh (A)
Dallas
win Cleveland (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
win Green Bay (A)
loss Washington (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Arizona (A)
loss St. Louis (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Washington (A)
win San Francisco (H)
95% Seattle (H)
45% Pittsburgh (A)
45% NY Giants (H)
70% Baltimore (H)
55% Philadelphia (A)
Denver
win Oakland (A)
win San Diego (H)
win New Orleans (H)
loss Kansas City (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Jacksonville (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Miami (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Atlanta (A)
loss Oakland (H)
25% NY Jets (A)
60% Kansas City (H)
15% Carolina (A)
55% Buffalo (H)
15% San Diego (A)
Detroit
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Chicago (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
loss Houston (A)
loss Washington (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss Tampa Bay (H)
10% Tennessee (H)
25% Minnesota (H)
2% Indianapolis (A)
25% New Orleans (H)
3% Green Bay (A)
Green Bay
win Minnesota (H)
win Detroit (A)
loss Dallas (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
loss Atlanta (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Indianapolis (H)
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
65% Carolina (H)
90% Houston (H)
75% Jacksonville (A)
50% Chicago (A)
97% Detroit (H)
Houston
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Miami (H)
win Detroit (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Cleveland (A)
65% Jacksonville (H)
10% Green Bay (A)
50% Tennessee (H)
50% Oakland (A)
45% Chicago (H)
Indianapolis
loss Chicago (H)
win Minnesota (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
win Houston (A)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
loss Tennessee (A)
win New England (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
win Houston (H)
win San Diego (A)
85% Cleveland (A)
98% Cincinnati (H)
98% Detroit (H)
70% Jacksonville (A)
70% Tennessee (H)
Jacksonville
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Indianapolis (A)
win Houston (H)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
win Denver (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Detroit (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Minnesota (H)
35% Houston (A)
20% Chicago (A)
25% Green Bay (H)
30% Indianapolis (H)
10% Baltimore (A)
Kansas City
loss New England (A)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
win Denver (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Tampa Bay (H)
loss San Diego (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Buffalo (H)
50% Oakland (A)
40% Denver (A)
48% San Diego (H)
48% Miami (H)
50% Cincinnati (A)
Miami
loss NY Jets (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win New England (A)
win San Diego (H)
loss Houston (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
win Buffalo (H)
win Denver (A)
win Seattle (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss New England (H)
75% St. Louis (A)
45% Buffalo (A)
75% San Francisco (H)
52% Kansas City (A)
25% NY Jets (A)
Minnesota
loss Green Bay (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Tennessee (A)
win New Orleans (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss Chicago (A)
win Houston (H)
win Green Bay (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win Jacksonville (A)
55% Chicago (H)
75% Detroit (A)
40% Arizona (A)
60% Atlanta (H)
35% NY Giants (H)
New England
win Kansas City (H)
win NY Jets (A)
loss Miami (H)
win San Francisco (A)
loss San Diego (A)
win Denver (H)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Buffalo (H)
loss NY Jets (H)
win Miami (A)
60% Pittsburgh (H)
75% Seattle (A)
90% Oakland (A)
60% Arizona (H)
75% Buffalo (A)
New Orleans
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss Denver (A)
win San Francisco (H)
loss Minnesota (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss Carolina (A)
win San Diego (N)
loss Atlanta (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Green Bay (H)
45% Tampa Bay (A)
65% Atlanta (H)
45% Chicago (A)
75% Detroit (A)
60% Carolina (H)
NY Giants
win Washington (H)
win St. Louis (A)
win Cincinnati (H)
win Seattle (H)
loss Cleveland (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
win Dallas (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Baltimore (H)
win Arizona (A)
60% Washington (A)
85% Philadelphia (H)
55% Dallas (A)
85% Carolina (H)
65% Minnesota (A)
NY Jets
win Miami (A)
loss New England (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Arizona (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Oakland (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win Buffalo (A)
win St. Louis (H)
win New England (A)
win Tennessee (A)
75% Denver (H)
80% San Francisco (A)
75% Buffalo (H)
75% Seattle (A)
75% Miami (H)
Oakland
loss Denver (H)
win Kansas City (A)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss San Diego (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
win NY Jets (H)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Atlanta (H)
loss Carolina (H)
loss Miami (A)
win Denver (A)
50% Kansas City (H)
15% San Diego (A)
10% New England (H)
50% Houston (H)
20% Tampa Bay (A)
Philadelphia
win St. Louis (H)
loss Dallas (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Washington (H)
win San Francisco (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Seattle (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
tie Cincinnati (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
55% Arizona (H)
15% NY Giants (A)
80% Cleveland (H)
40% Washington (A)
45% Dallas (H)
Pittsburgh
win Houston (H)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
win Baltimore (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
win Cincinnati (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
win Washington (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win San Diego (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
40% New England (A)
55% Dallas (H)
45% Baltimore (A)
48% Tennessee (A)
90% Cleveland (H)
San Diego
loss Carolina (H)
loss Denver (A)
win NY Jets (H)
win Oakland (A)
loss Miami (A)
win New England (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss New Orleans (N)
win Kansas City (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
60% Atlanta (H)
85% Oakland (H)
52% Kansas City (A)
25% Tampa Bay (A)
85% Denver (H)
San Francisco
loss Arizona (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss New England (H)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
loss Seattle (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Dallas (A)
23% Buffalo (A)
20% NY Jets (H)
25% Miami (A)
45% St. Louis (A)
35% Washington (H)
Seattle
loss Buffalo (A)
loss San Francisco (H)
win St. Louis (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win San Francisco (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss Arizona (H)
loss Washington (H)
5% Dallas (A)
25% New England (H)
45% St. Louis (A)
25% NY Jets (H)
5% Arizona (A)
St. Louis
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Seattle (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Washington (A)
win Dallas (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Arizona (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Chicago (H)
25% Miami (H)
5% Arizona (A)
55% Seattle (H)
55% San Francisco (H)
5% Atlanta (A)
Tampa Bay
loss New Orleans (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Chicago (A)
win Green Bay (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Carolina (H)
win Seattle (H)
loss Dallas (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Minnesota (H)
win Detroit (A)
55% New Orleans (H)
35% Carolina (A)
40% Atlanta (A)
75% San Diego (H)
80% Oakland (H)
Tennessee
win Jacksonville (H)
win Cincinnati (A)
win Houston (H)
win Minnesota (H)
win Baltimore (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Indianapolis (H)
win Green Bay (H)
win Chicago (A)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss NY Jets (H)
90% Detroit (A)
90% Cleveland (H)
50% Houston (A)
52% Pittsburgh (H)
30% Indianapolis (A)
Washington
loss NY Giants (A)
win New Orleans (H)
win Arizona (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Philadelphia (A)
loss St. Louis (H)
win Cleveland (H)
win Detroit (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Dallas (H)
win Seattle (A)
40% NY Giants (H)
40% Baltimore (A)
75% Cincinnati (A)
60% Philadelphia (H)
65% San Francisco (A)
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