Fantasy News
In the magazine, I wrote the big feature, promising that the Steelers and Colts would be handicapped by unreasonably hard schedules, while the Patriots and Chargers would benefit from playing some of the easiest schedules ever.
Uh … sorry, dude.
Let me now update those numbers.
Colts: Have played a hard schedule so far, but will play the easiest schedule in the league over the next three pivotal weeks. I expect them to close with an average-type schedule.
Steelers: Have played one of the easier schedules so far. They project to play one of the hardest schedules over the next three weeks. Probably will finish the year with a middle-of-the-pack schedule.
Patriots: Probably will finish the season with one of the five easiest schedules. Not a pure “Cakewalk” (as promised on the cover of the magazine), but New England might make the playoffs because of its soft schedule. SOS has been a factor with this team.
Chargers: I expected the Chargers to have one of the real easy schedules as well. And with the AFC West being an awful division, I’m surprised it hasn’t happened. That division has gotten its butt kicked by the NFC South, which might finish with four teams with winning records. San Diego, therefore, might close with a harder-than-average schedule. Oops.
Below, find some of the updated numbers for strength of schedule.
—Ian Allan
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – REMAINING (weeks 14-16)
Based on projections involving opponents’ current win-loss records, four teams from the old AFC East – Colts, Patriots, Jets, Dolphins – will play the easiest schedules during the next three weeks (which are pivotal for fantasy purposes). Indianapolis’ schedule is almost embarrassingly easy, home games against 1-10-1 Cincinnati and 0-12 Detroit, followed by a trip to 4-8 Jacksonville. The hardest four schedules, on the other hand, will all be played by teams in the thick of the playoff race – Dallas, Pittburgh, Carolina and Baltimore.
W L T Pct.
5 30 1 .153 Indianapolis
12 24 0 .333 Miami
12 24 0 .333 New England
12 24 0 .333 NY Jets
13 23 0 .361 St. Louis
14 22 0 .389 New Orleans
14 22 0 .389 San Diego
15 21 0 .417 Green Bay
15 21 0 .417 Chicago
15 21 0 .417 Minnesota
16 20 0 .444 Arizona
15 19 2 .444 Washington
16 20 0 .444 Oakland
17 19 0 .472 Seattle
17 19 0 .472 San Francisco
17 19 0 .472 Denver
18 18 0 .500 Kansas City
18 18 0 .500 Tennessee
19 17 0 .528 Cincinnati
19 17 0 .528 Houston
19 17 0 .528 Jacksonville
18 16 2 .528 Cleveland
21 15 0 .583 Detroit
21 15 0 .583 Tampa Bay
22 14 0 .611 Atlanta
22 14 0 .611 Buffalo
22 14 0 .611 Philadelphia
23 12 1 .653 NY Giants
24 12 0 .667 Baltimore
27 9 0 .750 Carolina
27 9 0 .750 Pittsburgh
28 8 0 .778 Dallas
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – SO FAR (weeks 1-13)
You hear a lot of talk about “this team is going to have an easy schedule” or “this team will be done in by a hard schedule” (and we’re as guilty as anyone). But it’s also useful to look at the schedules teams have already played. There’s a big difference between going 9-3 while punching out a bunch of tomato cans and managing to go 9-3 despite playing a murderer’s row schedule. Those numbers appear below. Most impressive teams: Ravens and Colts (they’ve managed to each go 8-4 despite playing very difficult schedules). Playoff-type teams that have benefitted from playing easy schedules include the Broncos, Jets, Panthers, Bucs, Steelers and Titans. On these numbers, teams’ own wins and losses aren’t included (with Tennessee, for example, its opponents are actually a combined 58-73-1 – 1-11 against the Titans, and 57-62-1 against the rest of the league). We leave those “in-house” numbers out, otherwise the schedules of teams with losing records tend to look harder, while the playoff-type teams incorrectly appear to be playing easier schedules.
W L T Pct.
44 76 0 .367 Buffalo
50 69 1 .421 San Francisco
52 68 0 .433 Denver
53 66 1 .446 NY Jets
57 63 0 .475 Carolina
57 63 0 .475 Tampa Bay
56 61 3 .479 Pittsburgh
57 62 1 .479 Tennessee
58 62 0 .483 Detroit
58 62 0 .483 New England
57 61 2 .483 NY Giants
58 61 1 .488 Atlanta
58 61 1 .488 Seattle
58 61 1 .488 Washington
59 61 0 .492 Miami
59 61 0 .492 New Orleans
59 60 1 .496 Chicago
59 59 2 .500 Dallas
60 59 1 .504 Houston
61 59 0 .508 Philadelphia
61 58 1 .513 Jacksonville
62 57 1 .521 St. Louis
63 57 0 .525 Arizona
63 57 0 .525 Minnesota
63 57 0 .525 Oakland
64 56 0 .533 San Diego
65 55 0 .542 Green Bay
65 53 2 .550 Baltimore
66 53 1 .554 Cleveland
67 53 0 .558 Indianapolis
68 52 0 .567 Kansas City
73 47 0 .608 Cincinnati
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – REMAINING (weeks 14-17)
This chart is similar to the first one shown, except it also includes week 17. While it may be of interest to some readers, we generally omit those final games. Most fantasy leagues have closed up shop by that time, and it can also be hard to attach accurate numbers to those games. Maybe a half dozen teams will be resting players – big difference between playing 11-1 Tennessee in week 15 rather than week 17. Nevertheless, we’ve also got those numbers.
W L T Pct.
15 33 0 .313 Green Bay
16 31 1 .344 Indianapolis
18 30 0 .375 Arizona
18 30 0 .375 New England
19 29 0 .396 NY Jets
19 28 1 .406 Kansas City
20 28 0 .417 Miami
20 28 0 .417 Chicago
19 27 2 .417 Washington
21 27 0 .438 St. Louis
21 27 0 .438 San Diego
21 27 0 .438 Denver
21 27 0 .438 Cincinnati
23 25 0 .479 New Orleans
24 24 0 .500 Seattle
24 24 0 .500 Atlanta
24 24 0 .500 San Francisco
24 24 0 .500 Tampa Bay
25 23 0 .521 Oakland
25 23 0 .521 Houston
26 22 0 .542 Minnesota
26 22 0 .542 Detroit
26 22 0 .542 Tennessee
27 21 0 .563 Jacksonville
28 20 0 .583 Baltimore
27 19 2 .583 Cleveland
29 19 0 .604 Buffalo
30 18 0 .625 Philadelphia
30 17 1 .635 NY Giants
31 17 0 .646 Pittsburgh
33 15 0 .688 Carolina
34 13 1 .719 Dallas
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