Fantasy News
I’ve mentioned this a couple of times in the past, but it’s worth pointing out again:
I think the notion/theory that you have to load up on “stud running backs” in the early rounds is flawed.
Guys like Steve Smith, Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall help fantasy teams. You can count on them. And they add significant value to a fantasy value – particularly in a format with PPR and starting three wide receivers (or even better, a “flex” position that can be a fourth wide receiver). And they’re far less likely to get hurt or bust out than the running backs who get selected in the similar range of a draft.
Consider the experts league hosted by the guys at www.fanexfootball.com. They host a league each May/June. 12 teams. Each guy has to start a QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, Def and one “float” player, who can be a WR, TE or RB. You select 20 players, and your lineup is automatically calculated each week in a best-ball format. No head-to-head matchups. At the end of 17 weeks, high scorer wins.
In 2007, I participated in this league for the first time and won it easily. Drafted Reggie Bush with the 4th pick (missed on that one – he got hurt), but then assembled a solid corps of four good wide receivers – Steve Smith, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Jerricho Cotchery and Greg Jennings. With those guys catching 5-plus balls every week, I won that league easily.
I came back for the same Fanex League in May and decided to use a similar strategy. I selected Steven Jackson in the first round (like Bush, he wound up being a first-round mistake), then loaded up on wide receivers. This time, I actually engineered a series of trades, moving down a few times and actually moving out of the second round entirely. I let many of the other owners overcompete for lesser-type running backs that never amounted to anything and wound up with with an even better group of receivers – Andre Johnson (3.02), Steve Smith (3.08), Wes Welker (4.05) and Calvin Johnson (5.08).
And just because you don’t select a running back in the second round doesn’t mean that you’ll be taking a goose egg at that position all year. At the front end of the fifth round, I just missed out on Thomas Jones and wound up selecting Matt Forte (5.02). I added Kevin Smith (6.05) as a depth guy, and in the last round of the draft selected two more tailbacks who’ve wound up starting games – Chris Perry and Pierre Thomas. The quarterbacking on this team (Cutler/Garrard) has been fine, and I’m more than a week ahead of every other team, score-wise, with four weeks left in the competition.
The Fanex guys also run a different competition – similar, but with head-to-head games, roster moves and lineups each week. In that one, they have two separate conferences of 12 teams each. Otherwise, the rules are indentical.
I used a similar draft approach in that one, only without any trade-downs. Brian Westbrook (1.02) in the first round, then three real good pass catchers – Fitzgerald (2.11), Welker (3.02) and Marshall (4.11). Again waited on that second running back spot, but we’re fine there – Kevin Smith (5.02) and Chris Johnson (7.02).
I’m not sure that team will even make the playoffs – it’s 8-5 and needs a win this week against a good opponent – but that’s more a reflection of the chance involved with head-to-head scheduling. With a week left, that team is No. 1 in scoring out of the 24 teams.
Three leagues do not constitute a scientific study, of course, but my belief is that a whole bunch of fantasy teams out there across the land are tending to select running backs way too early in fantasy drafts. Rather, I believe collecting a good group of pass catchers is the way to build a solid fantasy franchise.
—Ian Allan
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Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 03 at 03:52 PM
I agree, and it's a similar story with my teams. Most are doing very well, and most were built by selecting WRs in the second, third, and fifth rounds, then a second running back later (or something similar to that). I do think this year is a little unusual in that so many rookie backs panned out. I liked Chris Johnson a lot and have him on almost all my teams (you'll recall I actually drafted your 8-5 FanEx team there, albeit mostly off your rankings), but even I didn't think he'd be as good as he's been. Matt Forte, also: we thought he'd be good, but not this good. Steve Slaton is a guy we noticed in the preseason and thought was worth a flier, but he's definitely exceeded everyone's expectations. I remember last year there were a bunch of running backs selected in the second round: Chris Henry, Brandon Jackson, a couple of other guys. But the only rookies who were really any good (and I might be forgetting someone) were the ones everyone knew about: Peterson and Lynch, who were taken in the top dozen picks. So this might be a rare year where it was easier to pull very good starting running backs out of the middle and late rounds of drafts than it will be in future years.
Posted by donnie schemetti | Dec. 03 at 07:04 PM
There's no question this is true. In my 16 team conference, I held the 5th pick in the draft. There were only about 5 RB's I felt were worth early picks, so I was thrilled to draft here. I took Marion Barber, then watched Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall slide to me in the 2nd and 3rd due to their suspensions. I confidently drafted DeAngelo Williams at the bottom of the 4th and nabbed Steve Slaton all the way at the 9th round. (Not to mention waiting around to grab Aaron Rodgers in the 8th as my starting QB). Going into this year, I felt like the RB's in the 6 to 20 range had too many issues and uncertainty. There were plenty of young runners with tons of upside (like DeAngelo, Slaton, Chris Johnson) all hanging around at tier below those guys. I can't imagine the situation plays out quite as fortunately in future years for those of us who were so patient with the position, as many of these unknowns will become the more popular players in 2009.
Posted by Frederick Buescher | Dec. 04 at 06:17 AM
I tried this approach for the first time this year, I was drafting at the end of each round and figured the RB pickings would be slim so why not give it a shot? 12 teams, 2 keepers each. Took McGahee as best available RB w/ the #12 pick based on the Index's cheat sheet - ouch. Followed with Colston, Marshall, and Houshmandzadeh. The guy I play in the playoffs took Forte and Tom Jones while I was loading up on WRs. Not gonna take this approach next year. On another note, is there a more overrated player in FF than B. Marshall?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 04 at 06:42 AM
I dunno, I think Index was higher on Forte and Thomas Jones than pretty much anyone else. Definitely guys you could get in the middle rounds after taking wide receivers early (although I guess Forte would go earlier in a keeper format).
Posted by Brian Barrett | Dec. 04 at 09:03 AM
Good piece. The FI cheatsheet was very contrarian this yr. I like it that way. Going straight off the sheet in a 12 team league with a 4/9 snake draft position I ended up with Brady, B Marshall, C Johnson, Witten. Holding out until the 5th round for a RB took a great leap of faith. 5,6,7,8,9 went Graham, Forte, DeAngelo Williams, C Perry, R Williams and A Rodgers in 10. I was able to scrape out a few legit weeks from Rhodes when Addai went down and I'm #2 in scoring after the guy that drafted Warner/Fitzgerald. Pretty amazing considering the Brady debacle. The first yr I used the FF cheatsheet was 95 when I drafted Jerry Rice/Herman Moore 1/2. Ended up with Scott Mitchell as well and I ran away with the league. One note of caution: I shared this insight with a friend who joined our league this year and he drafted Moss/B Edwards/Carson Palmer 1,2,3. Needless to say, he won't be joining me in the playoffs this weekend.