Viva Murillo!

Fantasy owners often debate the prevalence of luck and skill in our game. Is it a game dominated by random chance, or is it something controlled by individual skill? If it's mostly skill, how do we account for injuries, penalties that wipe out touchdowns or goal-line vultures? If it's just luck, why do the same teams seem to be at the top year after year?

Well, here are the exact percentages: Fantasy football is 50 percent preparedness, 35 percent luck and 15 percent skill. These are real figures and actual numbers compiled by me. They are authentic statistics you're reading on the Internet, so there's no reason to dispute them whatsoever. It would be like doubting something you read on Wikipedia, which we know is infallible. But in case you were wondering, I think being prepared is exactly half the battle. Using important resources (like this site) keeps you informed and able to avoid some obstacles that could impede your weekly score. But while being prepared is critical, it isn't a skill. Luck is good for a third or more of the game, and the rest is skill. I mean actual skill-- negotiating trades, reading owners when it's time for your draft or auction and managing off-season duties in dynasty leagues. Even though it's technically a small part of the equation, it's often what usually separates perennial winners and losers. That little bit pushes teams ahead of prepared owners, but can't necessarily overcome a string of bad luck (or someone else's good luck). That's why you have to be prepared and you want to be lucky, and if you have that skill you're often toward the top at the end of the year.

But this isn't the end of the year, is it? It's playoff time, and the percentages change drastically. I'm sorry to tell you that, for the next two weeks, luck will certainly be the dominant factor. If it's not 90 percent (maybe more) of what goes into choosing a champion from the playoff pool, it's pretty close. Preparedness won't matter, because every remaining owner will be up-to-date on injuries, trends, team practices, weather, the waiver wire and anything else you can think of that might influence a team's performance. There are no more trades and little influence you can wield on your opponents, so true skill won't play a big role now.

That leaves one variable: Lady Luck. Will a quarterback throw a short touchdown because the running back got stuffed at the one-yard-line, or a false start penalty changed the original play? Will a running back gain a few extra yards on a simple draw to end the half? Will a receiver take advantage of another guy's drop to register one of his own? Will a strong gust of wind push a kicker's field-goal attempt wide? Any of those things could help you (or your opponent) advance this week, and there's nothing you can do about it.

This is the time of year when fantasy owners fret over their lineups, no matter how casually they treat the hobby. When you're this close to your goal, it's hard not to push yourself to make the right decisions. But really, you should be putting less pressure on yourself right now. You were prepared, you were lucky, and you displayed some skill. That's what got you here. Now it all depends on how your guys perform in an hour of football. If enough of them do well, they all get another hour. That's it. There's no more pressure. Just enjoy your success, invite Lady Luck along for the ride and hope she comes along.

In fact, luck may have played a huge role in you being there in the first place. In one league, I got lucky and grabbed the last seed thanks to playing a good team on a bad week. In another, I thought I had a great team but won't come close to the post-season. Luck is going to carry plenty of teams over the next couple of weeks. You just have to hope that yours is one of them. Good luck this week.

Youtube Clip of the Week: If you watched the game Monday night, you know this play was skill: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xfbytyrw8ak

You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.

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