Viva Murillo!
I don't normally make a lot of predictions in this column; I leave that stuff to Ian Allan. He's the guy who had Jay Cutler as a top five quarterback in the magazine, and he kept bumping Steve Slaton up his list in the pre-season updates. I'd rather find amusing Youtube videos and try to analyze the more political aspects of managing and participating in a fantasy football league.
But sometimes I do a little forecasting, and this year I made three predictions. I'll revisit them now to determine whether I was right or wrong.
Prediction #1: LaDainian Tomlinson won't be the top fantasy back this year. Right. I pretty much hit this one on the head. I said this was the year he slows down and loses the flash that made him a fantasy staple for years. I said Norv Turner would work his poisonous magic and plunge the team further into mediocrity. I said not only would he not be the best, but he'd be several steps short. This was, as predicted, the year we'd look back and say LaDainian Tomlinson slowed down. I also said I'd be happy to be wrong because I really like the guy. He can still play at an NFL-caliber level, but simply he's not the production machine fans have come to expect. I can't help but wonder what would've happened if that 14-2 squad had beaten the Patriots in the playoffs after the 2006 season. I hope he gets another shot at a ring. Maybe this year's 8-8 squad will make a playoff run.
Prediction # 2. Josh Brown will be a difference-maker at kicker. Wrong. Can we go back to the Tomlinson thing again? Not only was I out on a limb with this prediction, but Ian personally challenged me on it, stating Brown wouldn't even be top 10. It almost seemed like he was mocking me by ranking Brown ridiculously low each week, behind guys like Al Del Greco and Pete Stoyanovich, who haven't been in the league in years. Okay, that's an exaggeration but Brown was ranked very low each week. The frustrating thing was that for many leagues, he kept justifying that ranking. I'm still not faulting Brown, though. He was booming 50+ yarders even while the team was getting throttled. If the team had scored any touchdowns, I'm confident he would have nailed the extra points. Counting just field-goals, Brown actually finished fifth with 31, and he kicked quite a few long ones. Only Rob Bironas had more from 40 yards and longer, and only Jason Hanson kicked more from 50 yards and beyond. Also, during the traditional fantasy playoffs, Brown punched in five field-goals and three extra points. But the team scored a paltry 19 touchdowns for the season, which crushed Brown's value. I was wrong.
3. Randy Moss wouldn't be the top receiver in fantasy football. Half credit. Yes, I'm giving myself half on this one. Technically I was right since Moss clearly wasn't the top receiver, but let's be honest. I had this one in the bag in the first half of the first game when Brady went down for the year. I'm actually impressed that Moss remained a solid contributor and team player, finishing with 11 touchdowns on 69 receptions. But even if Brady was behind center all season, I still think Moss would have been out-produced by guys like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, at least from a receptions and yardage standpoint. Moss was slowing down in last year's playoffs and Wes Welker was emerging as the team's reliable pass-catcher. He continued that this year as well with 111 receptions, four behind league-leader Andre Johnson. I guess we'll never know for sure how it would have turned out, but I think I get something for calling Moss' decline. Just like in fantasy football, you need a little luck to score points.
So that's 1.5 out of three, which wouldn't sound too good on an exam. But .500 is a great baseball average, so I'm happy with the result. But I doubt I'll spend a lot more time making predictions, especially when I can find the time to find educational videos, like this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8J8GIGczyJA
You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.
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