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Final strength of schedule analysis

Posted Dec. 30 at 01:27 PM

Below are the final strength of schedule numbers for the 2008 season.

Looks like the AFC North, as we expected in the magazine, was saddled with tough schedules. According to our numbers, the four teams from that division played the hardest schedules in the league – Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Baltimore.

According to the NFL’s official numbers, Detroit and Kansas City projected to play two of the hardest four schedules in the league, but that data is slightly skewed (in our opinion). Those teams lost plenty of games, so it’s only natural that their schedules appeared to be hard. The Lions, for example, went 0-16, making a 127-113 (a difficult schedule) look like a 143-113 whopper.

The 49ers, Bills and Broncos appear to have played the easiest schedules. We were wrong there. We expected the Chargers and Patriots to benefit from easy schedules, but neither of those teams were in the elite group.

The playoff teams with the easiest schedules were the Falcons and Dolphins. Atlanta is a bit of surprise, considering it played in the NFC South (where every team went at least 8-8); but the Falcons also played 2-14 Kansas City, 2-14 St. Louis, 5-11 Oakland and 0-16 Detroit.

The complete number appear below -- the NFL numbers, followed by our own numbers (which we feel are more telling).


STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Standard NFL version)

   W   L   T  Pct.  
  114  141  1  .447  San Francisco
  116  140  0  .453  Buffalo
  117  139  0  .457  Denver
  117  138  1  .459  Atlanta
  117  138  1  .459  Tennessee
  118  138  0  .461  Miami
  120  135  1  .471  NY Jets
  121  134  1  .475  Chicago
  121  132  3  .479  Washington
  123  133  0  .480  New England
  123  133  0  .480  Tampa Bay
  124  131  1  .486  Arizona
  125  131  0  .488  Carolina
  127  129  0  .496  New Orleans
  126  127  3  .498  Dallas
  127  128  1  .498  Indianapolis
  127  128  1  .498  Seattle
  127  126  3  .502  NY Giants
  129  127  0  .504  Green Bay
  129  127  0  .504  Minnesota
  131  124  1  .514  Philadelphia
  132  124  0  .516  San Diego
  132  123  1  .518  Houston
  133  123  0  .520  Oakland
  132  121  3  .521  Baltimore
  133  120  3  .525  Pittsburgh
  136  119  1  .533  St. Louis
  137  118  1  .537  Jacksonville
  137  118  1  .537  Kansas City
  141  114  1  .553  Cincinnati
  143  113  0  .559  Detroit
  145  108  3  .572  Cleveland

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (customized Fantasy Index version)

   W   L   T  Pct.  
  105  134  1  .440  San Francisco
  107  133  0  .446  Buffalo
  109  131  0  .454  Denver
  112  127  1  .469  Atlanta
  113  127  0  .471  Miami
  113  126  1  .473  NY Jets
  114  125  1  .477  Chicago
  114  125  1  .477  Tennessee
  113  124  3  .477  Washington
  115  124  1  .481  Seattle
  116  124  0  .483  Tampa Bay
  117  122  1  .490  Arizona
  118  122  0  .492  New England
  119  121  0  .496  Green Bay
  119  121  0  .496  New Orleans
  119  118  3  .502  Dallas
  121  119  0  .504  Carolina
  122  118  0  .508  Oakland
  122  117  1  .510  St. Louis
  123  117  0  .513  Minnesota
  123  116  1  .515  Indianapolis
  123  116  1  .515  Kansas City
  124  116  0  .517  San Diego
  124  115  1  .519  Houston
  123  114  3  .519  NY Giants
  125  115  0  .521  Philadelphia
  126  113  1  .527  Jacksonville
  127  113  0  .529  Detroit
  127  110  3  .535  Baltimore
  130  110  0  .542  Cincinnati
  129  108  3  .544  Pittsburgh
  133  104  3  .560  Cleveland

—Ian Allan

Readers' Comments

Posted by MATT SHEDOR | Dec. 31 at 02:02 AM

i remember going through strength of schedules in the Index before draft day.. we had some Browns and Bengals ranked pretty high, but your strength of schedule chart scared us off. on the other hand, we drafted Cutler BECAUSE of his schedule. this was a valuable tool.

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