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Below, see the preliminary numbers for strength of schedule for 2009. It appears (based on 2008 win-loss records) that the Dolphins, Panthers, Patriots and Falcons will play the hardest schedules.
The easiest schedules (and teams will change a lot in the offseason) project to below to the Bears, Vikings, Packers, Steelers and Ravens.
The complete list ...
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE FOR 2009 SEASON
W L T Pct.
105 149 2 .414 Chicago
107 148 1 .420 Minnesota
109 146 1 .428 Green Bay
110 144 2 .434 Pittsburgh
111 143 2 .438 Baltimore
113 143 0 .441 Arizona
113 142 1 .443 San Francisco
114 140 2 .449 Cleveland
117 139 0 .457 Seattle
119 137 0 .465 Cincinnati
119 137 0 .465 St. Louis
119 136 1 .467 Detroit
122 132 2 .480 Denver
122 132 2 .480 Oakland
123 131 2 .484 Kansas City
123 131 2 .484 San Diego
125 129 2 .492 Washington
129 126 1 .506 Houston
130 126 0 .508 Tennessee
131 125 0 .512 Indianapolis
132 124 0 .516 Jacksonville
131 123 2 .516 Dallas
134 120 2 .527 NY Giants
137 119 0 .535 Philadelphia
142 113 1 .557 New Orleans
145 110 1 .568 NY Jets
146 110 0 .570 Buffalo
148 107 1 .580 Tampa Bay
150 105 1 .588 Atlanta
151 105 0 .590 New England
151 104 1 .592 Carolina
152 104 0 .594 Miami
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Posted by Brian Grzybowski | Feb. 21 at 01:41 AM
At a glance it appears that having Detroit on the schedule twice greatly diminishes the usefulness of this information. What happens when you remove the two worst teams from everyone's schedule?
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Feb. 21 at 02:36 AM
I don't think you're onto anything. Saying that, "It may look like Chicago's playing the easiest schedule, but that's just because they're playing Detroit twice," doesn't make sense to me. Those games against the Lions, in my opinion, are the key items you're looking for -- just like you wouldn't want to be a team like the Browns that has to play four games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore's defenses. To me, the more meaningful way to tweak strength of schedule is to go through each of the 32 teams and tweak their wins and losses to what you think they should be in 2009, then calculate the strength of schedule from there. Detroit, for example, would be moved up to 2-14 or 3-13. The 11-5 Dolphins might be rolled down to 8-8, and so on. I did spend 5-10 minutes to calculate a Grzybowski Chart, removing the best two and worst two teams from each schedule -- 25 percent of each team's schedule. It didn't make much difference. Chicago and Minnesota are still Nos. 1 and 2, followed by Pittsburgh, Arizona and Baltimore. Hardest five would be Saints, Bills, Dolphins, Bucs and Patriots.
Posted by ADAM HOLTZ | Feb. 22 at 01:06 PM
I'd like to see that subjective information: Ian, figure each team's percent chance to win each game on the upcoming schedule, then use those "projected" W/L records in figuring estimated SoS.