Ian Allan

Are the Lions supposed to select Matthew Stafford with the first pick of the draft?

I’ve never been a big fan of selecting quarterbacks early. You have to commit a lot of money to them, they don’t help right away, and the bust rate is awfully high. Particularly the way the league is structured right now, it’s a killer to tie up a bunch of money in a Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Andre Ware or Heath Shuler.

But after 2008, I’m softening on that stance a little bit. Both of last year’s first-round quarterbacks – Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco – now look like steals. Ryan definitely should have been the first pick of the draft. And look at that quarterback class of 2004 – Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. All of those teams are now set at the hardest to fill and most valuable positions.

And if you get the right guy at the position, it can set up your franchise to be a contender for years. Elway, Bradshaw, Marino, McNabb, Roethlisberger and the Mannings. Those guys win games.

I ran some numbers on this, comparing quarterbacks to running backs. Running backs are much easier to project – the bust rate is far lower. But the upside isn’t nearly as high, since it’s easier to find adequate runners in other areas.

Since the 1970 merger, 50 quarterbacks have been selected with top-10 picks. Of that group, 13 started in Super Bowl games. Ten of those quarterbacks won at least one Super Bowl (as a starting quarterback), and eight of those were for the teams that drafted the player (Jim Plunkett and Trent Dilfer were top-10 picks, but won Super Bowls for other teams).

Compare that to the running back position. (And I’ll concede that it isn’t the best year for this comparison, since there aren’t any running backs who are going to be selected with top-10 picks – there’s no Adrian Peterson-type runner in this year’s draft). Nevertheless, there have been 55 running backs selected with top 10 picks since 1970. Of that group, only 10 went on to start in Super Bowl games, and only half of those guys were starting for the team that drafted them (Walter Payton, Tony Dorsett, Marcus Allen, Otis Armstrong and Jamal Lewis).

Only four of those 55 running backs won Super Bowls for the teams that used the top-10 pick to select them.

The league belongs to the quarterbacks; that’s the position you need to fill.

I’m not saying this means the Lions should select Stafford. He’s not a can’t-miss gem like John Elway or Peyton Manning. He didn’t win as many games as he should have – he came up small in a lot of big games. Some scouts think he’s not even as good as Mark Sanchez, the other top quarterback in this draft. Sanchez started only one year in college and was surrounded by a stellar supporting cast – looks like he could go anywhere from 5th to 25th in the draft.

But with the long-term upside these quarterbacks carry, the Lions will have to take a long, hard look at Stafford (and at Sanchez). If they feel there’s a good chance they could get another Carson Palmer or Philip Rivers, that’s probably the way they’ll have to go with the No. 1 overall pick.

The safer route – the one I’d probably take if I were in their shoes – would be to trade the 20th pick of the draft for Jay Cutler (if they can get that deal; the Broncos were willing to do that deal if they could get Matt Cassel) and then use the No. 1 selection on a solid, safe player that they know won’t bust. When the Dolphins had the first pick last year, they selected tackle Jake Long, and it worked out pretty well. But if Miami knew how good Matt Ryan was going to be, he – not Long – would have been the choice at No. 1 last year.

—Ian Allan

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