Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff
Last week I promised a primer on using your first new player purchase(s) of the season. Be honest, though. How many of you waited?
I'm in three Football Challenge leagues – CDM #s 5, 14 and 35. In two of those leagues the 25 teams have already combined to use at least 25 purchases.
This never ceases to amaze me. You spend months putting a team together in your head, right? In your head, in Excel, on scraps of paper you leave lying around everywhere. And then you start to scrap the team after one week's worth of actual games? Granted, there were a couple of challenge-relevant injuries that first week, but did you really have that many decisions wrong? How do you know yet? Some of these teams have burned 5 purchases already; they have 7 left for 15 weeks of our most violent sport.
If you want perspective on that, try this:
Q: What would you pay in salary for a running back who gave you 2,402 rushing yards at 5.18 per carry, 491 receiving yards at 10.22 per catch and 30 combined touchdowns?
A: You wouldn't have to think about it. Those numbers are Larry Johnson's from Weeks 9-17 in 2005, only projected over a full year. L.J. didn't take over as the feature back in KC until Priest Holmes finally went down – and he was priced as a backup. He was an automatic buy by Week 10 at latest, when it was clear that there wasn't anything fluky about him, but many challenge teams had already spent their purchases. Those of you who weren't playing these games then cannot imagine the effect that owning or not owning L.J. had on the final standings. Without him you could not possibly win a league.
So answer another Q: for me, please. What are the chances that Michael Turner is nearly as good a football player as Larry Johnson? See what I'm driving at?
It's all well and good to decide you've made a couple of mistakes and have to correct them. Do that. Buy Travis Henry and Steve Smith right now. Otherwise, though, follow these rules:
1. DO NOT BUY ANY PLAYER UNTIL YOU KNOW YOU WANT HIM.
Duh, right?
Maybe not.
203 FC teams bought Chris Brown after 19 carries and 175 yards in Week 1; they owned 12 and 34 in Week 2.
127 teams bought Ronald Curry after 10 catches and 133 yards; they owned 2 and 12.
Those last two sentences aren't so much a reflection on the players – I like Curry; I own him – as on the scores of challenge owners who picked them up. Why send Curry into Denver to face the best pair of cornerbacks in the league? I taxied him for the week.
So look at that rule again, with emphasis this time: Do not buy any player until you know you want him. Know he's the man to fix what you need him to fix for the rest of the year, or at least a good stretch of it. Otherwise, wait.
2. DO NOT BUY ANY PLAYER UNTIL YOU HAVE A PLAYER TO DROP.
126 teams dropped Matt Leinart after Week 1 (when, as I wrote last week, he did look dreadful) and missed 299 passing yards.
71 teams dropped Deion Branch and missed 122 receiving yards.
Again, not a reflection on the players so much as on the owners. I kept Leinart active on my teams and taxied Branch. I was far more confident in the latter decision.
But the bigger point is, you owned your team (and every player on it) for a reason. Short of dumping Brandon Jacobs after a serious-ish injury, or dumping an expensive Colt you owned to cash in on the cheat game, who were you dropping last week?
3. PEEK AHEAD AT THE SCHEDULE.
Nothing makes these games easier – especially in terms of which players start for you which weeks – than soft schedules. Cedric Benson, I'm now fully convinced, is a lousy player. But I'd run him against Kansas City every week of the season.
So peek ahead, get your new guys going against bad teams. You know: exactly the opposite of buying Curry to use in Denver.
Rudi Johnson shot way up the rankings in this week's Fantasy Index ReDrafter, which I take to mean that I have good company in following this rule – none other than the Index's own Ian Allan. Check the Bengals' slate and you'll see the following defenses coming up: SEA, KC, NYJ, BUF, ARZ, STL, SF, CLE, MIA. That's 9 potentially excellent matchups in 14 remaining games, and in 4 of the others – here's a hidden bonus – you'll know for sure not to run Rudi against the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers (twice).
That kind of clarity makes me very happy as an owner – happy enough, even, to color my perception of other rules. Which leads to another one ...
4. KNOW HOW YOU USUALLY APPROACH THESE DECISIONS? DO THE OPPOSITE.
It's no big secret that most challenge owners buy new players in large part to fit their teams' salaries under the cap. Everything works, say, except that the cheapest WR you have to plug into that last slot is Braylon Edwards at $1260, which puts you $250 over. So you buy Calvin Johnson at $1000, right?
Right. Unless C.J. (we'll call him that; Chad Johnson has moved on to other nicknames) doesn't meet the approval of the other rules.
Think of this the way you want your favorite real team to approach draft day. Drafting for need never seems to work as well as taking the best player available. (Unless you're in Detroit, where the best player available is always a receiver and, until C.J., is never the best player available.)
Buying almost any player to solve this week's salary jam will come back to haunt you. Buying a guy you want anyway, when you have a drop in mind and the schedule looks good – that's the way to go, and if he just happens to fix your salary problems, too, more power to you. Otherwise, keep trying permutations of your own roster with various Guys You Want Anyway sprinkled in. Eventually one will fit.
Without bogging down in too many of the details, let's run the gamut quickly with Rudi, working through all four of the rules above.
Am I sure I want him? My weak categories at the moment – and I'm very solid overall, now sitting at 125-126-127 – are rushing yards and rushing average. I'm confident Rudi is good for the yards; the average worries me. He's a career 4.1-yards-per-carry guy, but last year he posted 3.8. So far this year: 4.1.
OK, but the schedule looks good, and in writing about that a moment ago I hinted at an explanation for the modest averages: CIN plays BAL and PIT twice every season. Last year's averages in those four games, chronologically: 2.5, 4.3, 2.9, 3.6. Without them his full-season average moves from 3.8 to 4.0. Every little bit counts; maybe I'm onto something.
So say Rudi gets by the first rule; do I have a player to drop?
I certainly planned to. As I wrote last week, I owned Dallas Clark just to get that cheat game, figuring Vernon Davis could take over after that. Mind you, I don't love Davis, but I wanted a semi-cheap TE who wouldn't wreck my receiving average.
So far? The guy I wanted is Kellen Winslow. Clark stays put.
But I also have the other situation I mentioned last week, with Ahman Green sharing time with Smelly Ron Dayne. Maybe the timeshare won't last – it almost can't with Green getting 4.6 yards per carry and Dayne just 2.5 – but then I'll be staring at the facts that (a) Green is still 30; and (b) even if Dayne's load gets lighter, he'll almost certainly be the guy scoring the shortest touchdowns.
Green is indeed a drop candidate, maybe my only one. (I may start Benson, albeit begrudgingly, at DET in Week 4 and/or at GB in Week 5.)
Still, though, one is enough. And that means three rules are down – Rudi's schedule is great, Green's not as great. Especially not with Andre Johnson out for at least a week. That one absence should let defenses cheat hard against the HOU run.
So, about that fourth rule ...
I'm as guilty as anyone else, at least occasionally, of using purchases to make the salaries work. But that's not the case here, assuming that I decide to do a Green-for-Rudi swap. It's not the case because I have my lineup planned already, and it works fine with Steven Jackson in what would otherwise be Rudi's slot.
Not that there aren't other benefits.
The planned lineup forces me to use Mason Crosby in a bad matchup (vs. SD) instead of Stephen Gostkowski in a good one (vs. BUF). It would also force me to use Kevin Curtis this week. Come to think of it – and the following pun is absolutely intended – there's another drop candidate.
So Rudi slips past all four rules, and I'm free to buy him by my reckoning.
Let's amend the list, shall we?
5. NOT EVERYTHING THAT CAN BE DONE SHOULD BE DONE.
The idea of buying him just came to me now, as I started to write the column. Let me sleep on it and get back to you. Next week.
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