Ian Allan
A reader sent in an interesting e-mail last summer. I don't recall the guy's name, but he asked if all of the talk about more teams using a committee approach with their running backs was a bunch of baloney. As far as he could see, teams weren’t using any more committee than they ever had. It’s something I filed away and was meaning to look into.
Well, I looked at some of the numbers, and I would have to say I tend to agree. The concept of going with a committee approach isn’t new. Dave Meggett and Joe Washington were nice third-down backs in the ‘80s. Pete Banaszak was a good goal-line runner for the Raiders in the ‘70s, and Robb Riddick filled that role for the Bills in the late ‘80s. Rocky Bleier and Franco Harris both ran for over 1,000 yards for the same team in the ‘70s, and Kevin Mack and Earnest Byner did it out of the same backfield in the ‘80s.
If we were to go along with the assumption that teams are, in fact, rotating their backs more than they used to, then why isn’t it more reflected in the overall numbers. There were 22 1,000-yard rushers in 2006, the 2nd-highest total ever. And there were 16 of those runners last year. In the first 20 years of the 16-game schedule, there was never a season with more than 16 1,000-yard rushers.
I’ve put together a few charts below. The first shows plain 1,000-yard rushers. The second shows the number of running backs who both ran for over 1,000 yards and caught at least 40 passes – guys who weren’t getting pulled on third downs. And the final chart shows players who ran for over 1,000 yards and also scored at least 10 TDs – players tending not to be pulled at the goal line.
For all of these charts, the overall numbers supporting the premise that the workhorse runner is a dying breed just aren’t there. The sky isn’t falling. There will be plenty of adequate running backs available in your fantasy drafts this summer.
1000-yard rushers, 1978-2008
The number of players (each year) who’ve gone over 1000 rushing yards since the league went to a 16-game season in 1978:
1978 11
1979 12
1980 8
1981 15
1982 0 (strike)
1983 16
1984 13
1985 16
1986 8
1987 2 (strike)
1988 12
1989 11
1990 8
1991 7
1992 13
1993 11
1994 10
1995 16
1996 13
1997 16
1998 20
1999 14
2000 23
2001 15
2002 17
2003 18
2004 18
2005 16
2006 22
2007 17
2008 16
RBs with 1000-plus rushing yards and 40-plus recs
The number of running backs who've had both 1000 rushing yards and 40 receptions since the league went to a 16-game season in 1978:
1978 2
1979 5
1980 5
1981 10
1982 0 (strike)
1983 9
1984 7
1985 8
1986 2
1987 0 (strike)
1988 3
1989 4
1990 2
1991 4
1992 7
1993 2
1994 5
1995 7
1996 4
1997 7
1998 7
1999 8
2000 11
2001 8
2002 14
2003 11
2004 7
2005 5
2006 10
2007 6
2008 8
RBs with 1000-plus rushing yards and 10-plus TD
The number of running backs who've had both 1000 rushing yards and scored at least 10 TDs since the league went to a 16-game season in 1978:
1978 4
1979 9
1980 4
1981 9
1982 0 (strike)
1983 9
1984 6
1985 11
1986 5
1987 1 (strike)
1988 7
1989 7
1990 3
1991 4
1992 9
1993 1
1994 4
1995 10
1996 8
1997 6
1998 7
1999 6
2000 13
2001 9
2002 9
2003 9
2004 8
2005 10
2006 7
2007 6
2008 9
- Comments [4]
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Posted by ADAM HOLTZ | Jun. 07 at 11:56 PM
Would it also be pertinent to examine the number of RBs in the league who had at least (arbitrary guess here) 60% of their team's rushing yards? If that figure generally declines year after year, I would think it points to a rise in RBBC, though without factoring in TDs and catches, the fantasy significance of such a stat would be markedly decreased.
Posted by Travis Billman | Jun. 08 at 12:13 AM
To follow up with Adams comment: You could just look at the % of total rushing yards that the leader had. The assumption would be that in general, team's leading rushers would have 80-85% of total rushing yards (10-15 years ago) and only 60-65% recently. For instance both Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs rushed for 1,000 yards last year, but I would likely say that was a RBBC.
Posted by ADAM HOLTZ | Jun. 08 at 01:09 AM
Travis's comment on Ward/Jacobs sums up my thoughts perfectly! :-)
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jun. 08 at 03:47 AM
I don't think it's something that can be looked at in purely numerical terms. If you have a pair of 1,000-yard rushers, for example, was that with one guy running for 1,000 yards in the first half of the season, blowing out his knee, and then the other guy stepping in? Or did they share time all year. But if you take a brief look at the overall numbers, the idea that a lot more teams are now using the RBBC approach just doesn't seem to hold water. I'll get more specific numbers out on this -- I'll try to do it later today.