Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff
Read last week's column if you haven't already ... and know that, yes, I wish I'd followed Rule 5 instead of Rules 1-4. I figure 17 carries for 9 yards (!) out of Rudi Johnson was God's way of telling me I'd gotten too cute. At least the hamstring injury is meaningless; as I wrote last week, I wouldn't have used Rudi against the Patriots this week anyway.
Whatever, now there's work to be done.
I took a hit in the standings this week after my brilliant solution added to my rushing problem: down to 368-369-370 overall, still better than my usual start but no longer great. The good news is, there are only two categories weighing my rosters down at the moment, and they can be fixed at the same time. Hence the topic of this week's column.
I assume that many of you count rushing yards and rushing average as your main weaknesses for now. It hasn't been much of a season at the top of the RB salary list:
LaDainian Tomlinson ($3590): 130 rushing yards, 2.3 yards per carry, 1 TD.
Larry Johnson ($3440): 140, 2.8, 0.
Frank Gore ($3080): 175, 3.4, 3.
Steven Jackson ($2770): 233, 3.4, 0.
Shaun Alexander ($2970) has been better (275, 4.2, 2), but to make real hay at the position you've had to go down to Brian Westbrook ($2590; 291, 5.7, 2) and Willie Parker ($2300; 368, 5.0, 1).
I have a solution. Or, at least, I have a solution in mind. After last week I'll try to qualify my statements going forward; wouldn't want you mistaking me for an expert or anything.
THE SOLUTION, GENERALLY
One of the hardest things to do in these games is to zag when others are zigging. In challenges that often means letting others beat you over the head, week after week, with the same hot players they own and you don't. Believe me, it's been painful watching F. Willie Parker -- the F. is for Fast in some corners, something else here -- put up his clockwork 100-yard games.
But I decided not to own Parker at the start of the year, decided his salary was in the same No Man's Land I mentioned when discussing Reggie Brown, and here I am. I can zag, and continue to be the only team left trying to contend without Parker, or I can zig, give in and buy him. Same with Randy Moss. Same with every player off to a good start but left off of my rosters.
How to decide?
We're coming now to the part of the season where every owner should be taking stock of every preseason decision that shaped every challenge roster. Every decision. It's more a self-assessment than an assessment of NFL talent. You were either right or wrong. By extension, to a certain point, you're either an expert or not.
Rudi Johnson notwithstanding, what's it gonna be?
I know it's hard to keep the faith when your brains are leaking out of the wounds in your head, but think about this:
Brian Westbrook is already nursing his usual host of injuries. He's two weeks away from when we can start to call them nagging injuries; that's coming.
F. Willie Parker is scorching right now, and he's healthy. But.
But he's scored just once despite the hot start. Najeh Davenport has the other half of the Steelers' rushing TDs, and the team has faced nothing but soft defenses. CLE, BUF and SF, their opponents in order, rank 31st, 32nd and 25th in rushing D, respectively. They're 30th, 31st and 26th in yards per attempt.
There are two lessons here: (1) next year, own the RB who'll start the season against cupcakes and cupcakes; (2) FWP can only slow down. 368 yards over 3 games is 1,963 over a full year. Anyone want the over on that?
I won't tell you I'm not worried. I won't even tell you I'm not panicked, worried enough to burn another purchase in an effort to get this fixed.
I will, however, tell you I'm not buying FWP.
If you want a kind of shorthand rule, an easy addendum to last week's column, go with this:
THE SOLUTION, LESS GENERALLY
At two positions -- tight end and kicker -- you usually want to zig. Find the mix of kickers that's working for everyone, install those kickers and stop thinking about the position. Assuming you haven't fallen behind the field -- and if you started with the very popular Vinatieri / Gostkowski / Folk mix, you haven't -- you're done. Same at TE. Kellen Winslow will become very popular over the next few weeks with Vernon Davis hurt -- Winslow is what Davis was supposed to be, the guy whose athleticism is keeping receiving averages from tanking while teams tack on a few receiving yards at TE. I'm buying Winslow and dropping Davis this week and calling that a season; Winslow and Dallas Clark will start for me most weeks.
At quarterback you can go either way. Zig when one player with a reasonable salary becomes a must-own, as Jon Kitna has this year; if you don't have Kitna already, you obviously have to buy him.
But zag when you see a chance to gain on the field with the right unpopular (in terms of percentage of ownership) player. Jeff Garcia is 12.1% owned in the Football Challenge at present (compare to Kitna at 65.2%), and the Bucs look shockingly competent lately. Meanwhile Jay Cutler shows no real sign of greatness -- 3 TDs, 4 INTs -- but has gotten wildly popular as the game has progressed, up to 48.0% owned this week. Garcia is playing good football, and when the Bucs regress as a team he's going to be throwing a lot. I'm not saying Garcia-over-Cutler is a sure thing (and, really, I'm plenty happy with my pick of Eli Manning, 12.5%); I'm saying it's a zag, an available, potentially solid way to set your team apart.
At running back and wide receiver, though, where there are soooooo many more players in the pool and you own 12 of them total, zag away. This is where your team really distinguishes itself; I've gotten good use to date out of unpopular-at-the-start Brandon Marshall ($580) and Ron Curry ($810), and I may have unwittingly picked up another zag player by not dropping Kevin Curtis a week ago. 87 teams did drop him to avoid his monster game on Sunday; I, the expert, merely taxied him.
And at RB?
At RB I bought Rudi Johnson to begin to set myself apart. It shouldn't be hard to see where I'm going next: I'm buying the man himself.
THE SOLUTION, SPECIFICALLY AND MOST CERTAINLY
LaDainian Tomlinson's schedule has been exactly opposite of Willie Parker's so far: CHI, NE and GB rank 12th, 5th and 10th against the run, respectively, 3rd, 4th and 10th in terms of yards per attempt.
Rule: When the best player in the sport produces at less than half his usual rate for three straight weeks -- 130 yards over 3 games is a full-season pace of 693 -- you do not drop him. You do not taxi him. And when you do not own him? When his next stretch of games is home against KC, at suddenly soft DEN, home against OAK?
You drool.
Zagging this week means not only keeping the faith in yourself, but keeping the faith in an ordered universe and the notion that God, though He may mock the buyers of Rudi Johnson, does not hate anyone.
I'm all over Tomlinson. The very best players get by three of last week's rules by definition, I just told you the schedule is favorable, and I have three candidates for this week's two drops: Vernon Davis goes in favor of Kellen Winslow. Either Matt Leinart or (more likely) the groin-torn Steven Jackson makes way for Tomlinson.
J.J. Hardy hit his 16th home run of 2007 on June 3; now he has 26.
Please -- please -- try to beat me with F.W. Parker the rest of the way.
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