Ian Allan

Most seem to agree that it’s a below-average draft for quarterbacks and running backs. Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells. These aren’t knockout-type prospects. Some may go on to have good careers, but none of these guys would be considered to be the best at their position in most drafts.

But I find myself wondering why there hasn’t been more questioning in regards to the wide receivers as well. Michael Crabtree seems to be regarded as the consensus No. 1 receiver. And I’ve read and heard some call him a safe pick – a guy who without a doubt should be going in the top 5 overall.

I don’t see it.

Check out his highlights package on YouTube.

Clearly, he’s not bringing anything special to the table in terms of speed and size. In the four-minute clip on him, there are multiple plays where he’s either caught from behind or fails to get around an edge that seems to be there (for a difference-maker type athlete). And while Texas Tech listed him at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, it’s apparent that he’s not a big guy – he’s really more of a 6-foot-1 and 205- or 210-pounder.

Watching Crabtree, I wonder if he might be just another Troy Edwards. Edwards, recall, put up historic numbers at Louisiana Tech. Most notably, he caught 21 passes for 405 yards in a game at Nebraska. That helped convince the Steelers to select Edwards in the middle of the first round, but he did absolutely nothing for them.

We’ve all seen, with guys like Robbie Bosco, David Klingler, David Ware and Tim Couch, that putting up huge numbers in college doesn’t necessarily translate into being a good pro at the quarterback position. Those guys were just benefitting from playing in wide-open college systems.

But that same line of reasoning also applies to wide receivers. Just because a player catches 100 passes doesn’t mean he’s going to be a great pro. Some of those offenses are designed to get a lot of cheap throws into the hands of receivers – almost like handoffs to running backs. And when you watch the Crabtree highlights, I think you’ll agree that the vast majority of his highlight receptions are, in fact, actually very ordinary.

I would be very nervous about selecting Crabtree. I don’t think there’s any way he’s ever going to be another Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson. He doesn’t have that kind of physical ability. At best, maybe he can develop into another T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Hines Ward. But I’m not promising he’ll even be that kind of a player. There are some questions about Crabtree’s character. The Browns reportedly were turned off by Crabtree’s attitude at a recent visit and have taken him off their board.

Without question, a lot of other highly regarded receivers simply haven’t panned out. In this decade, less than half of the receivers selected with top-10 picks have gone on to be good pros. On our card, we’re counting as “hits” Plaxico Burress, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Braylon Edwards, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. The miss list is longer: Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Charles Rogers, Reggie Williams, Troy Williamson and Mike Williams. Ted Ginn was selected 9th overall on 2007 and has made little impact so far.

Crabtree’s fantasy value, of course, will be affected by where he lands. Does he wind up on a team with a good system and a good quarterback? And what else do they have at wide receiver. But right now, I don’t see him as an elite-type prospect.

Below, by the way, is the list of the college receivers who’ve caught the most passes in a season. Of this group, only Nate Burleson so far has made much of an impact in the pros.

Single-season college receptions leaders

  No
  142  Manning Hazard, Houston (1989)
  140  Troy Edwards, Louisiana Tech (1998)
  138  Nate Burleson, Nevada (2002)
  134  Howard Twilley, Tulsa (1965)
  134  Trevor Insley, Nevada (1999)
  134  Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (2007)
  129  Alex Van Dyke, Nevada (1995)
  128  J.R. Tolver, San Diego State (2002)
  122  Jordy Nelson, Kansas State (2007)
  114  Damond Wilkins, Nevada (1996)
  113  Casey Fitzgerald, North Texas (2008)
  111  James Casey, Rice (2008)
  111  Casey Fitzgerald, North Texas (2007)
  109  Marcus Harris, Wyoming (1996)
  109  Chris Daniels, Purdue (1999)
  109  James Jordan, Louisiana Tech (2000)
  109  Danny Amendola, Texas Tech (2007)

—Ian Allan

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