Factoid
Now that the Lions have officially agreed to make Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford the No. 1 overall pick in the draft later -- way too much later -- today, we can speculate as to how things might work out for him. Based on the history of quarterbacks selected with the No. 1 overall pick, it could be said that there is close to a 50 percent chance that Stafford will start a Super Bowl one day. Those odds, however, appear to be dropping.
Since the merger, there have been 16 quarterbacks selected first overall, and seven of the first 14 went on to start a Super Bowl game. The last two were Alex Smith in 2005 and JaMarcus Russell in 2007. We're not going to write off those guys' chances yet (although we probably could), and maybe Carson Palmer (2003) will manage it, but it seems reasonably safe to exclude David Carr (2002) and Michael Vick (2001). In short, six of the first nine quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall started a Super Bowl, but only one -- Eli Manning -- of the last seven has managed the feat. So while the overall history isn't too bad, recent history doesn't shine favorably on Stafford.
The quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall are presented below.
2007 JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
2005 Alex Smith, 49ers
2004 Eli Manning, Chargers (won Super Bowl)
2003 Carson Palmer, Bengals
2002 David Carr, Texans
2001 Michael Vick, Falcons
1999 Tim Couch, Browns
1998 Peyton Manning, Colts (won Super Bowl)
1993 Drew Bledsoe, Patriots (lost Super Bowl)
1990 Jeff George, Colts
1989 Troy Aikman, Cowboys (won Super Bowl)
1987 Vinny Testaverde, Buccaneers
1983 John Elway, Colts (won Super Bowl)
1975 Steve Bartkowski, Falcons
1971 Jim Plunkett, Patriots (won Super Bowl)
1970 Terry Bradshaw, Steelers (won Super Bowl)
--Andy Richardson
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