Ian Allan
Is it better to use strength of schedule numbers based on points or wins?
I looked into this matter last year during an extensive study for the magazine. My finding was that wins were by far the better barometer. I looked at a lot of numbers and ran my conclusions by a couple of biostatisticians in the family.
I’ll roll out those numbers on either Wednesday or Thursday. I do notice, however, as I look at the 2008 numbers, that the points figures were surprisingly accurate last season. Of the 10 teams that were expected to play the hardest schedules in terms of points, all of them did, in fact, play schedules that were in the hardest 11 in terms of points. And all six of the teams with the easiest schedules (in points) were teams that were expected to have top-10 (easiest) schedules.
It may take you a minute to figure out how the following chart is set up. I’ve got the 32 teams in order by expected schedule strength. The 49ers, Patriots and Bills were expected to have the easiest 2008 schedules (again, in terms of combined points allowed by opponents). And then for each team, I’ve listed how that schedule actually played out. For the 49ers, for example, their opponents allowed an average of 23.6 points in other games, the 4th-most in the league.
For teams expected to play top-10 easy schedules, I put them in bold (so they’d stand out more). For teams expected to play bottom-10 schedules (hardest), I put them in italics and stuck in the double asterisks.
As you can see, the numbers held up pretty well last season.
But again, I maintain that wins are a better forecasting tool that points allowed, and I will illustrate that point on either Wednesday or Thursday.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE COMPARISON CHART, 2008
Teams in order by expected 2008 numbers (which aren’t shown). Numbers shown are the actual 2008 performance – combined points by opponents in their 15 games each against other opponents.
PPG Rank
23.6 4 San Francisco
23.0 9 New England
23.4 5 Buffalo
23.9 1 Tampa Bay
22.8 10 NY Jets
23.6 3 Carolina
21.7 20 Kansas City
22.3 17 Washington
22.6 14 Seattle
22.6 16 Oakland
22.6 15 San Diego
23.4 6 Miami
21.4 22 Philadelphia
23.1 7 Minnesota
21.5 21 St. Louis
23.8 2 Atlanta
22.1 18 Denver
22.7 12 New Orleans
22.0 19 Arizona
23.0 8 Chicago
22.7 13 Green Bay
21.0 25 ** Jacksonville
20.3 29 ** Baltimore
21.3 23 ** NY Giants
22.7 11 Tennessee
20.6 27 ** Dallas
20.4 28 ** Pittsburgh
20.3 30 ** Houston
19.3 31 ** Cleveland
21.3 24 ** Indianapolis
19.2 32 ** Cincinnati
20.6 26 ** Detroit
Bold: Team played top-10 (easy) schedule.
Italics/Asterisks: Team played bottom-10 (hard) schedule.
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