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Andy Richardson


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Experts' draft roundup

Posted Jul. 01 at 05:53 AM

I've done a few experts drafts lately, some for other magazines and some for experts' leagues. Two were in the last two days, one for Rotoworld's second preseason annual and one for Fantasy Football InDepth's experts league. The latter's draft results can be seen at this link.

No two drafts are the same, but since luck of the draw has had me picking in the top 3 of virtually every draft, and since I haven't drifted terribly far from Fantasy Index's rankings, a certain sameness is cropping up. A few general observations:

If you use Index's rankings, here are some of the players you're likely to have on almost every team.

Drew Brees
Donovan McNabb
Ben Roethlisberger
David Garrard

Derrick Ward
Ray Rice
Cedric Benson
Ahmad Bradshaw

Steve Smith
Anthony Gonzalez
Bernard Berrian
Laveranues Coles

Zach Miller
Brent Celek

Many of these will be determined by draft position, or if you're willing to draft Brees in the second or third round, or other factors. But I can tell you that even if I wait an additional round after where we've ranked them, it's difficult for me not to have Rice, Gonzalez, and Celek, in particular, on my team.

Whatever the reason, we're virtually on an island with those players. I understand the wariness with Rice, but I can't figure out why some aren't believers in Gonzalez and Celek, two guys who did nothing but produce when given the chance a year ago. And now they're starters.

Wide receivers are going fast and furious. In the FFInDepth league, which uses point-per-reception scoring, there were almost as many receivers (11) as running backs (12) drafted in the first two rounds. It was a little different in the non-PPR Rotoworld draft (7 versus 16), but then three more wideouts went before the next runner.

Basically, if you're committed to going running back-running back with your top two picks, your draft position might determine whether you can land even a top-15 wideout in the third round. Well, except for Anthony Gonzalez.

Starting running backs are available later than you'd expect. A few of them are even good. Ryan Grant is going in the third or fourth round; Marshawn Lynch in the fourth; Joseph Addai in the fifth. There are concerns with all these guys, but to my mind most of those worries are overblown. Lynch will miss three games, but it's easy enough to grab Fred Jackson late. Grant is the unquestioned starter in Green Bay. Addai may not lose more than a third of the work to rookie Donald Brown.

Digging deeper, Cedric Benson, Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis are all going anywhere from the sixth to eighth rounds. Granted, there's nothing exciting about any of these players. But for a third running back (or even a second if you load up on wideouts or take Drew Brees early), you could do a lot worse.

No rookies on my teams. Knowshon Moreno is going in the third round. Beanie Wells has gone as high as the fifth. I'm not confident that any of the rookie wideouts will make an immediate impact, but they too are going well above where I'd take them -- Michael Crabtree (8th-9th), Percy Harvin (9th-10th), Hakeem Nicks and Jeremy Maclin (10th-11th). I'm not a big fan of players like Derrick Mason and Muhsin Muhammad, but those are the No. 4 and 5 wideouts I'm drafting; not the rookies.

Readers' Comments

Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Jul. 01 at 06:43 AM

Interestingly, Ian's drafted-too-early-team above isn't so bad... I wonder how it stacks up, as is, against other teams in those leagues. If it is comparable, then it makes trading down in drafts this year for picks NEXT year a very intriguing option.

Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Jul. 01 at 08:42 AM

Just to clarify my post above -- I realize that the list in the post is not an actual team. If it were a team, however, it might not be too bad. Thus the thought of, perhaps, trading down to draft the above team and getting extra picks next year.

Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jul. 01 at 09:31 AM

I guess it's inevitable that a team of most of those players looks good to Fantasy Index staffers and/or believers. For the most part, it's filled with guys we have a higher view of than other experts. In any case, I think that No. 2 running back spot is going to determine the fate of a lot of Index teams. If we're right on Ray Rice and/or Cedric Benson, or if a backup we're high on like Leon Washington (PPR format) or Ahmad Bradshaw comes through, owners will have no problem drafting wideouts early and getting quality production out of a second running back.

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