Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

Hello again, but this time on the heels of a bunch of awful goodbyes. Just a terrible, terribly strange run of news lately.

I lost one of my bigger idols in Michael Jackson a couple of weeks ago. Thriller was my favorite album from 1983 until around 1990 -- my first-ever favorite album -- and though my taste in music now runs in many directions, part of me will always come back to M.J.

But at least he had outward troubles -- some of the sort that could have prepared his fans for an early departure. Nothing tipped us off about Steve McNair. And while McNair may not have been the Michael Jackson of fantasy football, no doubt many of you hold him in the same kind of esteem.

So here’s hoping for better days ahead. It’s always true, but right now the season can’t start soon enough.

Alas ...

Today is July 8. Kickoff Weekend kicks off September 10. For better and worse, that leaves a lot of time for us to talk things through. I figured we’d start with my first-thought views on a number of topics we’ll be kicking around in weeks to come -- one per team, chugging through the AFC this week and NFC next.

Buffalo
Terrell Owens may be getting nearly as old as his shtick, but he isn’t too old to change the way opponents will defend his team. As much as you have to expect him to cry about not getting the ball enough, it’s almost impossible to conceive of the acquisition hurting Lee Evans, whose deep speed would seem to be the perfect complement to the attention T.O. will draw on the other side of the field.

Miami
The Wildcat is apparently here to stay (in Miami and elsewhere), but it’s helping real teams a lot more than ours. The Dolphins totaled 1,897 yards on the ground in 2008 (11th in the NFL), but their top individual rusher was Ronnie Brown down at 916 yards. Easy enough to see Brown getting back over 1,000, I suppose, but it’s hard to see him cracking 1,200 with Pat White and even Ted Ginn stealing away carries.

New England
Tom Brady’s injury discount is a godsend in a year with several other QBs coming off monster seasons. I know, I know -- tell that to Pats fans -- but Brady should be nearly 100 percent owned in most challenge games.

New York Jets
Tough to get a handle on the Jets’ fantasy prospects. It’s tempting to write off 2009 as a building year (not so much re-building), what with a rookie quarterback taking Gotham by storm, but doing so might not be cute enough. Or is the following too cute?

Shonn Greene was underhyped coming into the Draft, but he was nothing if not productive at Iowa in 2008. Now he runs behind a nasty, gnashing line and a still-great blocking fullback, and stands on the depth chart behind a soon-to-be-31-year-old incumbent (Thomas Jones) who didn’t exactly endear himself to his new coaching staff by whining about his contract in the offseason. There are few viable cheapos among the challenge RBs at present. Hmm.

Baltimore
Sometimes it pays to own skill positioners on a team with a promising second-year QB. Not in Baltimore in 2009. The Ravens’ likely continuing strategy of minimizing Joe Flacco’s impact on games leaves their offense in the hands of everyone else -- Willis McGahee, Ray Rice, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton and Todd Heap. (Last year’s leading rusher, Le’Ron McClain, is now a fullback.) Kind of a ragtag bunch; something tells me the league will catch all the way up to Flacco & Co. by Week 2 (at San Diego).

Cincinnati
Ditto the comment about Tom Brady’s injury discount for Carson Palmer, and maybe for Chad Ochocinco as well. One of dozens of key insights from our man Ian Allan in Fantasy Football Index 2009: “In 2007, [Ochocinco] led the league with 27 catches of 20-plus yards; last year, he had only 3.” Ian chalks that up to Palmer’s absence and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s stunning badness -- and all reports have Ochocinco in fantastic shape coming into 2009.

Cleveland
2008’s second-worst passing offense (148.8 yards per game, in a year when five teams were more than 100 yards better) now turns over to Brady Quinn (career completion percentage: 49.5), and the running game rides on the balding tires of Jamal Lewis.

In a word?

No.

Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger averaged 206.3 passing yards for the full regular season, but he was up to 237.4 in games 9 through 16, and he hung there -- at 230.7 -- in the postseason. The team won the Super Bowl. If Mike Tomlin will trust Big Ben to turn it loose a little more often, he should be looking at career-best numbers ... and he may yet make a full-blown fantasy star of Santonio Holmes.

Houston
Doesn’t look like the Triplets thing will happen in Houston -- Matt Schaub is hardly Aikmanlike in his consistency -- but Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson make a nice pair of Twins, and they’re both fairly priced for 2009. But beware of Johnson’s past tendency to shine in even-numbered years (2004, ’06, especially ’08) and hurt himself in odd-numbered years (’05, ’07).

Indianapolis
Donald Brown doesn’t strike me as the sort to save a rushing game, but Anthony Gonzalez might do just that for the passing game. One too many years of loyalty to Marvin Harrison cost the Colts a season of Peyton Manning’s prime -- 27 TD passes were his lowest total since 2002 -- but the more explosive Gonzalez should break way out in 2009. After Tom Brady, in fact, Gonzalez should be among the most widely-owned players in challenges.

Jacksonville
I like Maurice Jones-Drew as much as anyone does, and we sure don’t have many full-time feature backs anymore, but there are red flags here. The line was so bad after several injuries that the Jags used their first two picks in the Draft -- numbers 8 and 39 overall -- on tackles and signed a fast-thickening Tra Thomas as a free agent. The passing game was so bad that the team drafted three WRs and signed a less-quickening Torry Holt. None of this will keep defenses from stacking the box against J-D -- and one of the few feature backs we do have is Larry Johnson, who has struggled mightily under similar circumstances the past two years.

Tennessee
It took a full generation, but we finally have an answer to Mike Mamula, the poster child for Workout Warriors who simply can’t play in the NFL. Chris Johnson turned heads with his 4.24 40-yard dash at the Combine, then turned them again with a rookie campaign worthy of an award or two. (Just ask him.) Reports have LenDale White in career-best shape coming into 2009, but I still see C.J. getting the ball more often in 2009, maybe even enough -- given his receiving ability and the dearth of quality hands on the roster -- to challenge for the league lead in total yards.

Denver
Josh McDaniels is no catastrophe yet. Mark those words. Kyle Orton is hardly a Hall-of-Famer (perhaps unlike Jay Cutler), but I’m comfortable saying he’s better than Chris Simms, and there’s talent all around him on this roster. Knowshon Moreno is a big upgrade at RB; the WRs are obviously top-notch; the line is solid and solidly on-the-come behind Ryans Clady and Harris. There is no dirt-cheap Aaron Rodgers among this year’s challenge QB class, but Orton is the most reasonable facsimile.

Kansas City
I really like Matt Cassel, in no small part because Scott Pioli and Josh McDaniels -- very smart football men -- apparently really like Matt Cassel. I like him enough that I’ll consider owning Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe in 2009. And Cassel himself?

OK, so I don’t like him that much.

Oakland
It’s hard to overstate how incompetent the Raiders seem to be at the moment. Drafting receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey in the first round actually wasn’t so bad -- which they promptly proved by drafting unknown safety Michael Mitchell in the second. Building around quarterback JaMarcus Russell hasn’t begun to work out, as the team seemed to acknowledge by giving a record-breaking contract to punter Shane Lechler. There is some talent here (Darren McFadden, Heyward-Bey, Zach Miller), but I can’t imagine seeing enough from Russell to buy any piece of this offense at any point in the season.

San Diego
Two Chargers played their way past their proper salary range in 2008; Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson no longer bear consideration in most challenges. But two others -- and big names, too: LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates -- are back in play. Tomlinson will have to show us quite a bit in the preseason. In Fanball’s Football Challenge, at least, Gates’ $1010 salary makes him a pick-’em against Tony Gonzalez ($1000) and Jason Witten ($960), with Dallas Clark ($850) perhaps a likelier choice but no certainty to out-earn the others.

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