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Know That You Don't Know

Posted Jul. 08 at 07:29 AM

This might be my favorite time of the fantasy season, even though there are no drafts or auctions or games. This is the one point in the year where everyone is on equal footing. Everyone is at the same place. And I don't mean that we're all 0-0, or no fantasy points have been scored. We'll still be able to say that six weeks from now. I mean that we're truly starting out with the same knowledge regarding the 2009 fantasy season. That is, we know almost nothing.

Knowing nothing in July is perfectly acceptable. In fact, I'd say it's mandatory. Even though we make a big deal about current "news," very little has been revealed. We don't know the winner of any training camp battles. We don't know which rookies will earn a starting spot, and we don't know how they'll perform if they do. We don't know which free agents have developed a good rapport with their new teams. The teams haven't started pretending to prepare for the pretend games yet. We don't even know if the Vikings will beg Brett Favre sufficiently enough to get him to sign.

And that's what's so great about this point in the season. Even though nobody knows anything, you can still have an advantage. You see, some folks have been analyzing all the off-season moves. Every draft selection, every free agent signing and every voluntary camp quote has been scrutinized for fantasy relevance. And if there isn't any, they'll find something anyway. And I think that puts them at a disadvantage compared to the person who admits there isn’t much information yet. All you really have are stats from previous seasons and some hunches. Any fantasy owner who thinks that’s enough to provide an advantage will probably congratulate someone else in December.

Look, it's early July. Coaches are liars year-round, but they don't even try to sound authentic over the summer: This free agent looks great in camp; that veteran seems to have turned back the clock. And that rookie -- wow! He's really something. The team sure is coming together. Once the running back sets the obligatory 2,000 yards as his rushing goal, we'll be ready for the preseason. Blah blah blah.

In other words, please don't consider yourself at a disadvantage if you haven't analyzed the long off-season. The few relevant events can be digested in less than an hour, and you won't be putting undue weight on them for lack of anything else to discuss. The “big” events in February aren’t that big when the season starts. The NFL draft isn’t the life-changing event the networks make it out to be. While your league-mates are already inducting Knowshon Moreno in Canton, you'll be taking an objective look at each team's situation.

Now, if you followed everything closely because you love football, great. But don’t let that give you a false sense of security. In fact, you have to work extra hard not to let those events weigh too heavily in your mind. Now is the time to start fresh, embrace what you don’t know and get ready for the upcoming fantasy season.

In fact, the best thing you can do to improve your team is to improve your league. More on that next week.

Youtube Clip of the Week: Not enough Michael Jackson tributes? Enjoy this one in 3D. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOBlWKNyA0o&feature=related

You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.

Readers' Comments

Posted by Duane Stay | Jul. 08 at 08:02 AM

One thing you can bet the house on, is that Favre is going to be a Viking.

Posted by C.J. Strohacker | Jul. 09 at 02:37 AM

Good advice. Talk is cheap in the NFL. It's best to avoid the hype machine until you get a chance to see it for yourself during game action. Last year, McFadden got so much hype even though the Raiders were a lousy team. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson is busting huge plays in the preseason for a team that is built to play good defense and run the ball behind a good line while protecting leads.

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