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Experts draft: 40 picks in, good runners abound

Posted Jul. 14 at 10:45 PM

Participating in an extended-format experts draft for Fantasy Football Indepth, which includes point-per-reception scoring and also utilizes individual defensive players (IDPs). The poll I put up yesterday indicates about 1 out of 5 of you use IDPs, so where those players are selected should have some value.

We're into the middle of the 4th round, and I think the most interesting thing about the draft is probably that an equal number of running backs and non-running backs have been selected. I'm currently one of six owners -- half the league -- with only one running back, which is pretty unusual in experts leagues. The PPR format increases the popularity of wideouts, of course, but it's still pretty rare.

If you follow Fantasy Index's rankings, it's almost difficult NOT to draft Colts No. 2 Anthony Gonzalez. He's definitely a make-or-break player for us this year. Using our rankings I could have selected him in the 3rd, but I was confident he'd be there in the 4th (and he was). I took Tom Brady at 3.09; I'm not a big fan of taking quarterbacks early but I felt he had more value than the runners or receivers I could have selected there, using our rankings, and was the only one who definitely wouldn't be there a round or two later.

By the way, I realize your drafts may not go like this one, and placing too much value in one random experts draft is a mistake. Still, I thought it might be interesting to see how a dozen experts value players, especially given the PPR scoring is different than the draft in our magazine.

Draft can be seen at this link; results so far are presented below.

Pick      Franchise                                  Selection
1.01      Fantasy Sports Publications    Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
1.02      TheFantasyConsultant.com      Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
1.03      FootballDiehards      Johnson, Andre HOU WR
1.04      FFIndepth.com - James      Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
1.05      CBSSports.com      Forte, Matt CHI RB
1.06      USA Today      Slaton, Steve HOU RB
1.07      KFFL      Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC RB
1.08      DraftSharks      Johnson, Chris TEN RB
1.09      Fantasy Index      Jackson, Steven STL RB
1.10      Ultimate FF Strategy      Barber, Marion DAL RB
1.11      FFIndepth.com - James      Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
1.12      FFIndepth.com - Justin      Gore, Frank SFO RB
2.01      DraftSharks      Moss, Randy NEP WR
2.02      FFIndepth.com - James      Johnson, Calvin DET WR
2.03      FootballDiehards      Turner, Michael ATL RB
2.04      Fantasy Index      Smith, Steve CAR WR
2.05      FFIndepth.com - Justin      Portis, Clinton WAS RB
2.06      KFFL      Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB
2.07      USA Today      Wayne, Reggie IND WR
2.08      CBSSports.com      Jennings, Greg GBP WR
2.09      FFIndepth.com - James      Brown, Ronnie MIA RB
2.10      FootballDiehards      Brees, Drew NOS QB
2.11      TheFantasyConsultant.com      Bush, Reggie NOS RB
2.12      Fantasy Sports Publications    Smith, Kevin DET RB
3.01      Fantasy Sports Publications    Colston, Marques NOS WR
3.02      TheFantasyConsultant.com      Welker, Wes NEP WR
3.03      Ultimate FF Strategy      Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB
3.04      Fantasy Football Trader      McFadden, Darren OAK RB
3.05      CBSSports.com      White, Roddy ATL WR
3.06      USA Today      Boldin, Anquan ARI WR
3.07      KFFL      Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR
3.08      FFIndepth.com - Justin      Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR
3.09      Fantasy Index      Brady, Tom NEP QB
3.10      Ultimate FF Strategy      Thomas, Pierre NOS RB
3.11      Fantasy Football Trader      Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB
3.12      FFIndepth.com - Justin      Witten, Jason DAL TE
4.01      DraftSharks      Williams, Roy DAL WR
4.02      FFIndepth.com - James      Houshmandzadeh, T.J. SEA WR
4.03      Ultimate FF Strategy      Owens, Terrell BUF WR
4.04      Fantasy Index      Gonzalez, Anthony IND WR

--Andy Richardson

Readers' Comments

Posted by Miguel Tames | Jul. 15 at 04:43 AM

Now I know why I've never heard of Fantasy Sports Publications. Looks like they tried to be cute and cost themselves a few points in the process. I know Ian is probably waiting til the draft is over to comment, but I wonder what everyone else thinks about that first pick...

Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Jul. 15 at 05:48 AM

Miguel -- look at the Fantasy Index Magazine cheatsheets, especially the one for a PPR league. You might be surprised (and could be able to gauge Ian's reaction!).

Posted by Farhan Hassan | Jul. 15 at 05:52 AM

I can only speculate that the thinking behind taking Fitzgerald at number 1 (besides not believing in the jinx of being on the cover) is that he is less likely to get hurt than AP or the other top runners. MJD has never had a full-time role so we cannot say for sure that he will be durable either. Matt Forte no longer has Orton to throw him the short passess. I guess I would not have taken Fitzgerald at number 1 but I can appreciate the thought process of making this a safe pick. I am actually more perplexed by the third pick (AJ has not been that durable and more importantly, his current quarterback is definitely injury-prone).

Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jul. 15 at 09:38 AM

The Fitzgerald pick was surprising, although Ian ranked him No. 1 overall in the PPR format in the magazine, so at least he has some company. I agree that Johnson at No. 3 overall is even more surprising. I was pretty surprised that DeAngelo Williams slid as far as he did; I considered him briefly when I took Steve Smith.

Posted by Miguel Tames | Jul. 15 at 10:17 AM

Haven't gotten the magazine yet. Ordered it Monday, should be here tomorrow. No idea Ian had Fitzgerald at number 1. look forward to reading his take on it.

Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jul. 15 at 12:17 PM

Guys: remember that this is a point per reception league. When you add in that dynamic and crunch the numbers, it actually makes sense to move those wide receivers up there, particularly if its a league that starts three receivers or has a flex position. Considering the way others tend to overvalue running backs, the guy probably would have been smarter to trade down and pick up extra picks (and still get Fitzgerald), but I'm not going to knock him. Two years in a row, I have won the Fanex Analysis Draft (which is a PPR format) by emphasizing receivers early. So as much as I like the trash other fantasy analysts any chance I get, I will not pile on in this case against Fantasy Sports Publications.

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