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Defensive Notes

We’ve reached that point of the season when it’s a lot clearer which defenses are fantasy worthy, and which are not. Snap judgments made after a week or two had people dropping defenses like Jacksonville (run ragged by the Titans in week 1) while scooping up the Bengals (who harassed the Ravens into 6 turnovers). A month later, one of those defenses is fantasy worthy, and it’s definitely not the Bengals.

Here are now are a few defenses that have turned out to be a little better than many expected – followed by an equal number that are worse.

1. In the magazine we talked about how many of the best fantasy defenses tended to be tough against the run, and that’s held up: Baltimore, New England, Pittsburgh and Minnesota are all tough on the run and solid fantasy starters. What we didn’t anticipate was that Tennessee would be one of those teams. The Titans, however, are No. 1 against the run, which helps explain why only six teams have forced more interceptions (and Tennessee has played one fewer game than four of them). Stop the run, stop the offense – and force lots of turnovers.

2. Washington’s defense looked very impressive in the preseason; it was clear the team would be improved from last year. But would it be a good fantasy defense? This is a team, after all, that was dead last in both sacks and forcing turnovers a year ago. So far, the answer is yes: Washington is top 10 in sacks and top 12 in forced fumbles and interceptions. There will be some games you won’t want to use them – at New England and Dallas in the next month – but still, a far cry from last year’s disaster. Oh yeah, they’re also a couple of plays from being 5-0.

3. Kansas City looked like one of the league’s most hopeless teams in the preseason and even in the season’s first two weeks. But the team’s defense has been top-notch, currently leading the NFL in sacks and No. 7 in interceptions. The schedule has some rough spots, but there’s ample reason to think the sacks, at a minimum, will keep right on coming.

On the flip side….

1. Denver: Presumably no one is actually still starting these guys anymore, but the Broncos were pretty highly rated by a lot of people in the offseason, so they need to be mentioned. They can’t stop the run, they don’t get to the quarterback, they don’t make big plays, and their kick returns are a liability. The bloom, as they say, is off the rose. Denver actually has some attractive games on the schedule, including the often error-prone offenses of the entire NFC North. Some of those teams might be unable to exploit Denver’s 32nd-ranked run defense. Still, until they get that straightened out (and it might not be before next season), they’re not going to be a safe fantasy option.

2. Carolina: The Panthers’ defense is statistically average in a lot of areas, but it’s last in a surprising one: sacks, which is odd seeing as they have Julius Peppers and were No. 6 a year ago. Until they figure out a way to fix their pass rush they’re going to remain one of the league’s bigger disappointments, at least in fantasy terms.

3. Miami: There’s some talent here, still, but some of it is getting long in the tooth and some of it is hurt. And the team’s not winning, which always hurts: Defenses that don’t get to play with leads don’t get many fantasy points. Worst of all is that the easy part of Miami’s schedule, in theory, has already occurred. Trips to both Pennsylvania teams and a pair of games against the Patriots remain.

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