Andy Richardson
I've been doing a few too many fantasy drafts lately. You know how it is -- you say yes to one thing without knowing for sure if another will come along, and then one you're more interested in comes along and you can't say no, and then it happens again. Suddenly you're in three different leagues and you wish you weren't in at least one of them.
On the bright side, doing a lot of different drafts does enable you to draw a few conclusions about what's to come this season....
Pick your poison. It's true every year, of course, but given what seems (to me) to be the a real gap between the elite players and the merely good players this year, you need to ask yourself which position you're most willing to take a chance on this year. Quarterback? No. 2 running back? No. 2 wideout? You can't have everything. After a few drafts, it's clear to me that using an early pick on a quarterback, any quarterback, is just a waste of time. Why take Drew Brees or Tom Brady in the second round when Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo are available in the sixth or seventh (or later)? It's crazy. There's just not enough difference there for me to make that mistake again.
Bad starting running backs are available late.I'm not excited about players like Larry Johnson or Jamal Lewis. Their best years are behind them, they play for teams that figure to lose a lot of games, and at least one will probably lose his starting job at some point during the season, if not before. Still, it's a little crazy that these guys, along with the likes of Thomas Jones and Willie Parker, are falling to the sixth and seventh rounds. When week 1 rolls around all will probably be starters and getting the vast majority of the carries for their respective teams. None are exciting and none will put up huge numbers, but for owners who just have to have an elite quarterback or wide receiving tandem, you could do a lot worse.
Good tight ends are available even later. Nobody seems to like Brent Celek. Was his playoff performance -- 19 catches, 151 yards, 3 TDs -- so insignificant? Zach Miller, Dustin Keller and several slightly lesser options; easily draftable from the 8th or 9th rounds on. I can just about guarantee that 3rd- or 4th-round tight ends like Jason Witten and Antonio Gates won't be on any of my teams this year. They may be the best, but there are just too many good receiving options to use an early pick on one.
Serviceable wide receivers can also, you guessed it, be taken late. Here are a bunch more boring names: Josh Morgan, Kevin Walter, Muhsin Muhammad, Mark Clayton, Justin Gage, Kevin Curtis. I know, I know: bleh. But to see people using 8th and 9th-round picks on guys like Michael Crabtree, when all of these players, either No. 1 or No. 2s in their offenses, are going three or four rounds later, is a little surprising. I'm not saying build your team around such players, but again, opting for one or two of these guys as your third or fourth starters can save you an earlier pick on players with more upside -- but also more chance of being wasted.
OK, so if you're taking all these players late, who are you taking early? For me I"m loading up on the elite or very good wideouts and running backs, waiting on quarterbacks, tight ends, and No. 3 and 4 wideouts.
As for whether or not it will work, well, I've already got more teams than I'd like to have, and when the season rolls around I'll have plenty of examples to give you the answer.
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