Ask the Experts
Posted Jul. 23 at 03:03 AM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
Which training camp battle will you be watching most closely?
MIKE NAZAREK
The lead running back position for the Denver Broncos. Rookie Knowshon Moreno is expected to win that job, but a slow start could alter that team's plans with veterans LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter on the roster.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers an online rookie draft kit, preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, fantasy auction & regular drafting programs, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is the reigning four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at 702-568-7118 or miken@ffmastermind.com.
COLIN DARLINGTON
The starting wide receiver for the Bears alongside Devin Hester! Brandon Marshall was a 4th-round pick 3 years ago for Denver and nobody had heard of him and E. Royal was a rookie 2nd-rounder who wasn’t even drafted in most FF leagues last year. Marshall ended up as a top-10 wide receiver two years in a row and Royal finished in the top-20 wide receivers in most leagues. What made these WRs come out of “nowhere” to be FF stars---JAY CUTLER! Hester is clearly the small, quick, over the middle, first-down WR with lots of YAC (i.e.--Royal), but who will be that big, fast, breakaway speed and strength guy that will start opposite him and be Marshall? I’ll be watching and drafting closely!
Darlington is the owner of MyStartEmSitEm.com and has been an owner, commissioner and consultant in Fantasy Football since 1992. MyStartEmSitEm.com provides weekly advice based on your league, your scoring system, with custom emails about your team, preseason cheat sheets, draft day assistance and much more.
DAVID DOREY
The most interesting situation to me is what will happen between Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in Indianapolis. Addai seems to hold the upper hand by being a veteran but the Colts had a reason for using basically the same pick on Brown that they did a few years ago on Addai. Brown should offer at least relief and support to Addai but could be much more than that with a good camp. The Colts offense is always productive and getting the right guy in the backfield helps any fantasy team.
Dorey is the co-founder and Senior NFL Analyst at The Huddle since 1997. He has produced award winning rankings and has projected the fantasy stats for every game over the last 13 years. David produces the bulk of The Huddle rankings and his “Predictions and Projections” breaks down every single NFL game every week through the Super Bowl. You can find more about David at TheHuddle.com.
RICK HAWES
The Giants’ wide receiver depth chart and the Miles Austin vs. Patrick Crayton battle in Dallas intrigues me, but I will be keeping a close eye on backfield situation in the Black Hole. I expect Darren McFadden to seize a much larger slice of the pie this season, and according to recent reports there are rumblings that Michael Bush is ready to push Justin Fargas for the No. 2 role. The Raiders might be a dysfunctional organization but they have finished top 10 in rushing offense during each of the past two seasons. I feel that Bush has a criminally low ADP of 147 (13.09) as the No. 53 running back in 12-team leagues.
Hawes is the Managing Editor of NFL content at Fanball.com. Fanball.com and OwnersEdge.com offer league management software, daily play fantasy games, Live Advice, up-to-date news, free and premium content, player rankings, custom projections and cheat sheets, in-depth IDP analysis, Fantasy Buffet Radio Show, NFL Draft Kit, Fanball Blog Network, daily newsletter, a vast array of fantasy football tools, including Draft Analyzer software and five magazines featuring the Pro Football Draft Preview, as well as four Fantasy Football publications. For more information send e-mail to rhawes@fanball.com.
LOUIS TRANQUILLI
Ray Rice vs. Willis McGahee with a side order of LeRon McClain. We think Rice has the ability, offensive line and schedule in 2009 to become the next "DeAngelo Williams." He has similar roadblocks like DeAngelo had to work through, and once the job became his he exploded. Rice has bulked up physically so should he win the majority of carries in Baltimore he becomes a near lock for top 12 status at the RB position. We like this preseason battle to settle late, but fall into Rice owners' hands.
Tranquilli is the founder and the primary "brains" (if you stretch it) of BFDFANTASYfootball.com. BFD is about delivering the information players want, not fluff, just opinions that matter to fantasy football players. Lou has worked with NFL players and gives a unique perspective because of it. We'll be giving MORE teams away in 2009 to BFD subscribers!
NATHAN ZEGURA
I am going to be watching the Beanie Wells vs. Tim Hightower battle in Arizona. Whomever emerges as the primary ball carrier OR is the RB who will split carries AND get the GL work will be a solid RB2 this year. Currently Wells is going so far ahead of Hightower in drafts that if the rookie has a bad camp or gets hurt, their draft-day values are both going to make major moves. I expect Wells to win the job, but this is a battle that has big fantasy implications and will have to be followed closely.
The Fantasy Consultant, the only fantasy football site on the web run by a former McKinsey and Co. consultant, provides in-depth, statistical analysis and uses a proprietary model to produce weekly and full-season player projections customized to your scoring system. TFC focuses on the most relevant fantasy-oriented stats (targets, red zone and GL performance, Opp yards/TDs allowed by position) and provides real-time injury updates to ensure that you have everything you need to set your ideal lineup every week. Heading in to the draft, you get full season projections customized to your scoring system, in-depth player profiles, plus position primers that identify bounce-back players, breakout candidates, and sleepers and busts. In a record setting 2008 season, 94% of Premium subscribers (87% of Standard) went to the playoffs and 62% (40% standard) WON their leagues. Check out thefantasyconsultant.com today.
IAN ALLAN
I want to see how the Giants handle their wide receivers. Kevin Boss isn’t much of a receiving threat and Brandon Jacobs isn’t much of a pass catcher, so I think it will be a wide receiver who’ll lead the team in receiving. Long-term, Hakeem Nicks almost certainly will be their top receiver, but most rookie wide receivers aren’t ready to start right away. Can Nicks be an exception to that rule? He was a three-year starter in a pro-style offense at North Carolina. If not, the Giants likely will go with Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith as their starters. Can either of those guys put up decent numbers? How they perform in August could give us a hint.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He’s been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at the company’s website, www.fantasyindex.com.
CORY BONINI
The Cleveland Browns' quarterback battle seems to be the most intriguing to me, because it will have a wide-reaching impact on how the offense is run. If Brady Quinn, the early favorite, indeed takes the job, the offensive attack will feature a lot of short and high-percentage passing, which affects the value of Braylon Edwards in a negative way while giving someone like Brian Robiskie notable worth. Should Derek Anderson take it, the passing game will be more vertical, thus helping the deep threat that is Edwards, and I feel it will open up more running lanes for the backs.
KFFL.com offers fantasy football, fantasy baseball and fantasy NASCAR content. We have captured well more than a dozen expert league championships. Founded in 1996, KFFL offers award-winning daily news feeds, preseason draft guides, player rankings, sleepers, busts, weekly newsletters and more. KFFL is completely free! For more information, visit www.kffl.com.
JEFFREY KAMYS
As always there are several interesting camp battles, but we will be watching what takes place in Cleveland at the quarterback position. Will Derek Anderson take back his job as the starter or will Brady Quinn secure the starting slot? Fantasy wise both QBs are high risk picks, and the fantasy potential here is backup at best, but because of the celebrity of Brady Quinn this battle will be fun to watch.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send email to webmaster@docstats.com.
PRETZEL MAY
The obvious and probably most common answer here is who will win the starting Job week 1 between Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan and Ryan Torain. Looking further into this I realized that Mike Shanahan is no longer in Denver and neither is his magic to make fantasy stud running backs out of 3rd-string fullbacks. If Josh McDaniels runs this offense anything like he did in New England then it really won't matter who gets the spot because they will all get about 10 carries a game with the hot hand getting a few more. Really the only question in this battle is who will get the goal-line carries as that is the only person that will have a fantasy edge over any of the others. The battle I am most intrigued by from a fantasy perspective is Derek Anderson Vs. Brady Quinn. Both players have big upside potential and feel the spot should be theirs. The outcome not only affects their fantasy value but also the value of Jamal Lewis and most importantly it affects Braylon Edwards' ability to return to the 1,300 yards - 16 TD form he was 2 years ago. It will also be one of the first big decisions for Mangini as he tries to right the ship in Cleveland and will go a long way to determining whether he will be successful there.
The May brothers have more than 16 years of combined fantasy football experience and are the co-founders of FantasyDraftMaster.com. The cornerstone of FDM is the UberRank which is a revolutionary approach to the traditional fantasy football cheat sheet. FantasyDraftMaster.com also offers insightful and humorous commentary on football happenings as well as recommendations on waiver wire pickups, line up submissions and weekly pick em' pools. For more info, visit www.fantasydraftmaster.com or email us at info@fantasydraftmaster.com.
SAM HENDRICKS
Many will select the Denver, Baltiimore or Arizona running back situation; instead look at the Giants WR battle. Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon will all be fighting for a starting spot. If one really stands out in training camp he may be worth drafting at about WR30. Although all should see some significant action, Eli Manning’s go-to-guy could end up in the neighborhood of 70 catches, 800 yards and a half-dozen TDs.
Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Almanac 2009, all available at his website, www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is a 19-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th overall in the 2008 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
SCOTT ENDSLEY
With a week before camps start the honest answer might be we don't know yet. By that we mean that it could be a battle that hasn't emerged yet. Sure we'll be watching to see which runner seems to emerge in Denver, who will start at running back for Oakland -- don't be so sure it's going to be Fargas. But will Josh Freeman force the Bucs to consider him? Will Rashad Jennings (who? exactly our point!) open eyes in Jacksonville? So as always we'll be watching them all but we suspect the one we'll end up most closely watching hasn't emerged yet.
Endsley is co-owner and a senior fantasy football consultant for FantasyDraftEdge.com offering customizable fantasy football cheat sheets and professional VIP advice all season long. For more info, go to www.fantasydraftedge.com.
ANDY RICHARDSON
It's tough to pick which of the running back battles I'm most intrigued by. Certainly the starter in Denver and Baltimore is a little uncertain, so I'm very curious how those things will shake out -- although with John Harbaugh, you worry that he'll have Ray Rice starting all preseason and then suddenly go with Willis McGahee in week 1. I'm expecting a committee in Denver and am curious if it will work out that way. Finally, I'm very curious who will be the No. 2 -- and possibly get a decent workload -- in Jacksonville. I can't help but feel that a second running back will get at least a third of the carries behind Maurice Jones-Drew, and they've got several different candidates for that job: Greg Jones, Chauncey Washington, and rookie Rashad Jennings.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past eight years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections, as well as various site features. He has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. His A DAY OF FOOTBALL wrap-up column appears Mondays during the NFL season.
- Comments [7]
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Posted by Jered Ottenwess | Jul. 23 at 05:47 AM
I have a difficult time believing Denver would use their #12 overall pick for the top RB prospect in the draft just so they could rotate him evenly with guys like Lamont Jordan and Ryan Torain. I understand McDaniel's history in NE (see Maroney - also a 1st rd pick), but that was Belichick's team. McD gets to start fresh and he went after the top RB when everyone in Denver was calling for defense. I think Moreno has far and away the best chance to be a workhorse rookie RB.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jul. 23 at 07:18 AM
Jered - I think most people agree with you (certainly based on where Moreno is being drafted thus far, which is typically in the third round). But, the high selection of Moreno only says to me that he'll be their workhorse back eventually. McDaniels likely had something to do with the signing of Jordan, who he coached in New England. I think he's going to have a role. As for Buckhalter, who knows. Regardless, I agree Moreno's future is as a full-time guy, but not necessarily his rookie season.
Posted by SCOTT NICOLINO | Jul. 23 at 09:07 AM
Unless your in a keeper league why risk the pick at that point. I've played in a couple of 16 team leagues since the late 80's and have won numerous championships...and none of them were won by drafting a question mark within my first 5 picks of the draft! Those picks are the most important and my championships were won by taking 5 "sure things" with those first 5 picks! As of right now, Moreno is not a sure thing!
Posted by Jered Ottenwess | Jul. 23 at 12:26 PM
@Scott - Was Steve Slaton a sure thing? How about Chris Johnson? Now they're top 10 RB's. I understand the RB class of '08 is truly exceptional, but rookies are having more of an impact than ever. Last year in my league, we had three rookie RB's selected in the first five rounds: McFadden, Forte, and Smith in that order. Two of them turned in top 20 seasons. So it's not unreasonable to take rookie RB's early. Times have changed since you were rockin' Zubaz in the 80's.
Posted by Aaron Axel | Jul. 23 at 08:25 PM
Please do not take too much offense, but almost all of the "battles" these experts mentioned are rather insignificant IMO. They will not make or break anyone's fantasy season. How about some truly impactful situations, like how much will Jonathan Stewart eat into DeAngelo William's production? or how many TD's will LenDale White vulture from Chris Johnson? How will the RBBC situation in Dallas play out? Is there enough production for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush to both end up Top-20 RB's? While I suppose these aren't necessarily "position battles," this is what I will be watching most closely in training camp and the answers to these questions will most definitely create championships!
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jul. 24 at 04:02 AM
Aaron, in fairness, I think there's more chance of getting a sense of who the starter/lead runner will be in Baltimore or Denver, or the No. 2 and 3 wideouts in Chicago, based on training camp and the exhibitions, than some of the questions you're asking. Those are examples where we not only don't know how things will break down, but who will be on the field for the first snap. In contrast, we know DeAngelo and Marion Barber will start, and they'll probably give way early to Stewart and Tashard Choice in the exhibitions, but that won't mean it will play out that way when the games count. (I agree with you on New Orleans, though - imagine if Thomas actually starts an exhibition.)
Posted by SCOTT NICOLINO | Jul. 24 at 08:52 AM
To clarify, while playing in a 16 team league it is foolish to take any risks with your first 5 picks of the draft...let everyone else roll the dice if they want to...but if you want to be in the "money" at the end of the season...year after year after year... in a 16 team league you do not gamble at all with those first 5 picks! However, in a 12 team league it's not an issue. In a league that size it is easy for every owner to have a good team and gambling with on of those first 5 picks is not a big deal beacuse it easy to cover one's butt later in the draft due to the shear number of good talent still avaliable...just to clarify... I think we still have an opening in our 16 team CBS sportsline run league if anyone is interested!