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Viva Murillo!

Right now, the AFC looks like the superior conference: It has the NFL’s two best teams and many people believe that its potential wild-card teams could compete with the best of the NFC. Fantasy owners who own Patriots and Colts are likely in great shape. There are good fantasy options in both conferences, but many of the great ones are in the AFC.

But when the fantasy playoffs start, NFC players could help you win a title. Most leagues conclude before week 17 so meaningless NFL games don’t determine fantasy league titles. But with two undefeated teams in the AFC, week 15 and 16 might be meaningless, too. The Patriots are so far ahead of their division, they might celebrate a title on Thanksgiving. The Colts have a two-game lead on the Jaguars and Titans, but that’s a bit misleading; they’ve beaten their entire division already on the road. Which of those teams looks poised to catch them and top it off by defeating them in Indianapolis? Their division could be wrapped up before the playoffs, too.

And while the week 9 match up between the Patriots and Colts is exciting for fans, it’s also bad for fantasy players. If both are undefeated, the winner will have what amounts to a two-game lead in the race for home-field advantage. That leaves the other bye for the loser, meaning neither will have a lot to play for as the season wraps up. Brady is gunning for Peyton Manning’s single-season TD record, but the way things are going he’ll have that before the fantasy playoffs.

On the other hand, nobody in the NFC looks to be pulling away to the same degree. Dallas, the class of the conference, still has to contend with New York and Washington. Green Bay has Detroit a game back, nobody seems to want to win the NFC South and the Seahawks have been so unimpressive, the 2-4 49ers must feel like they still have a good shot at the division. If things continue like this, half the conference will have a chance at the post-season headed into the fantasy playoffs.

That’s a big if, of course. The season is only seven-weeks old. Teams can emerge or fall back, the infallible Patriots can stumble, and a couple of injuries can upset the applecart. This is all speculation, so in two weeks this column could look quaint and embarrassingly dated.

Well, so what? Fantasy football is all about speculation, playing match-ups and using strategy as you look ahead. And I advise you to start looking ahead to week 15 or 16 when your best players could be on the sidelines in the third quarter. I suggest you start looking at the mess in the NFC, where more players could be battling for a playoff spot when you need them most. I’m not saying to focus on players in the NFC exclusively, of course. But when looking at trades and waiver wire pickups, it’s something to consider.

In the NFL, teams can’t afford to look ahead. In fantasy football, teams can’t afford not to look ahead. Maybe the outlook in each conference changes, but I wouldn’t bet on it. And if you don’t plan ahead—even seven weeks ahead—you might be gambling away your title shot. Since we don’t know exactly who will still have something to play for in December, I say to go with the conference where the odds are more in your favor. Good luck this week.

Michael Murillo would like to imagine a competitive Super Bowl, but is having trouble thinking of intriguing match-ups. If you have any ideas you can list them below. You can also reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.

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