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Strength of schedule / alternate take

Posted Aug. 10 at 03:46 PM

Here’s an alternate take on Strength of Schedule. Tweaked slightly to account for week 17. Those games actually aren’t part of the vast majority of fantasy leagues, so it makes sense to simply disregard that week when analyzing the numbers.

The Bears, for example, play Detroit in week 17. That’s a juicy 0-16 opponent and a big reason that Chicago projects to play the league’s easiest schedule. But set that game aside (since fantasy leagues will be over) and the Bears drop down to a tie for 6th in strength of schedule. Similarly, the Dolphins play Pittsburgh’s tough defense in week 17; toss that game out and Miami improves from hardest to only 6th-hardest.

Teams that miss out on notably favorable matchups in week 17: Jaguars (at Cleveland), Broncos (vs. Kansas City), Jets (vs. Cincinnati), 49ers (at St. Louis), Rams (vs. San Francisco), Bears (at Lions), Browns (vs. Jaguars), Patriots (at Houston), Ravens (at Oakland), Kansas City (at Denver).

Teams that duck potentially rugged matchups in week 17: Giants (at Minnesota), Saints (at Carolina), Eagles (at Dallas), Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia), Vikings (vs. Giants), Raiders (vs. Baltimore), Dolphins (vs. Pittsburgh).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (omitting week 17)

    W    L    T  Pct.  
    95  144  1  .398  Minnesota
    99  139  2  .417  Pittsburgh
  100  139  1  .419  Green Bay
  103  135  2  .433  Baltimore
  104  136  0  .433  Seattle
  106  134  0  .442  Arizona
  105  133  2  .442  Chicago
  110  130  0  .458  Cincinnati
  109  129  2  .458  Cleveland
  110  128  2  .463  Oakland
  111  128  1  .465  San Francisco
  114  125  1  .477  Detroit
  114  124  2  .479  Kansas City
  114  124  2  .479  San Diego
  116  124  0  .483  St. Louis
  116  122  2  .488  Denver
  118  121  1  .494  Houston
  119  119  2  .500  Washington
  121  119  0  .504  Indianapolis
  123  117  0  .513  Tennessee
  124  115  1  .519  Dallas
  125  115  0  .521  Jacksonville
  126  113  1  .527  New Orleans
  128  110  2  .538  NY Giants
  130  110  0  .542  Philadelphia
  132  108  0  .550  Buffalo
  138  102  0  .575  Miami
  139  101  0  .579  NY Jets
  141    98  1  .590  Tampa Bay
  143    96  1  .598  Carolina
  145    94  1  .606  Atlanta
  147    93  0  .613  New England

—Ian Allan


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