Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

Sorry for the delay, kids; my move turned into quite an ordeal. My girlfriend's bladder notwithstanding, driving 19 hours was the easy part. Our movers were criminals, we get zero cell phone reception in our new place, the Internet keeps blinking out and my new home team -- Buffalo -- looked as bad as an NFL team can look this past weekend.

On the bright side, on the heels of my novel-length rundown of running backs, there are only -- what? -- twice as many WRs to worry about? Two and a half times as many?

Actually, not even close.

I'm breaking from the past few columns' ratings scheme and running down receivers team-by-team instead. There are only a few differences between the WRs I'll tout for Categories and Points games, and I'll point those out as we go, and altogether you should be out of here in less than an hour.

I hope.

AFC first, by division:

BUF
T.O. is Too Old to earn his salaries, and Trent Edwards has brains but not the arm to make a star of Lee Evans on the other side. Pass.

MIA
Greg Camarillo is cheap enough to consider in Points games if he's playing the Wes Welker role again (his 2008 was cut short, but that was the role exactly: a high volume of catches at an average-killing 10ish yards per). Ted Ginn makes more sense in Categories games, as he'll play the opposite role -- lower volume, higher average. But the Trent Edwards comment goes double for Chad Pennington trying to make a star of Ginn, who isn't the equal of Lee Evans.

NE
Randy Moss is automatic for me with Tom Brady back. That goes for Categories games as well as Points. Wes Welker is possible in Points games (only), but I prefer at least one cheaper alternative who'll likely play the same role elsewhere.

NYJ
There's one receiver in the NFL I'll own despite real doubts about his likely QB's basic competence. He's not a Jet.

BAL
He's not a Raven, either -- and even if I've been too hard on Joe Flacco in this space, really, which WR do you like on this roster?

CIN
Chad Ochocinco just got too cheap to ignore in 2009. With Carson Palmer back I figure they're both automatic until they crap out -- and I also figure that's about enough of the Bengals' O for any challenge team.

CLE
And I also figure that's about enough of the Browns' O.

PIT
Santonio Holmes has a monster season in him, sure, but he's priced as if he's already had it. Own too many guys like that -- guys who need career-best seasons just to earn their pay -- and you have to be perfect to win. So be perfect, then, or own players on the come instead.

HOU
Andre Johnson is not too expensive -- he won't need career-best numbers to earn his pay, just last year's numbers. In Categories games, though, I'm staying away to start the season. Remember: one way to protect your receiving average is by avoiding high catch totals from your RBs -- and another way is by picking receivers partly on the basis of that one category. A.J. costs $1750 in the Fanball Football Challenge; Randy Moss costs $1760. A.J. averaged 13.7 yards per reception in 2008; Moss averaged 14.6, and that was with Matt Cassel quarterbacking.

No question A.J. will beat Moss in volume, maybe by 25 catches but I'd guess more like 15, and no question A.J. can get better still while Moss, at 32, probably can't. But I like Moss to do more for my receiving average in 2009, and I really like the two even more expensive WRs I'll carry to start the year. Keep reading.

IND
Everyone else will own a still-cheapish Anthony Gonzalez, and you can maybe beat them here, too, if you're perfect.

JAX
There are only a handful of truly cheap receivers who interest me at the moment, and the one who interests me most is the one who's truly cheapest -- Mike Walker, a full level less expensive in the Football Challenge than the likes of Malcolm Floyd and others we'll come to. But the knock on Walker is that he can't stay healthy, and he missed this weekend's game with an ankle injury. Watch closely; I want that $400 salary in the Football Challenge.

TEN
Duplicate the BAL comment here. Kerry Collins may be just barely OK, but he has nothing to work with. Here's an idea: make Vince Young a receiver.

DEN
I believe I've already written that you can't pay the Broncos' receivers salaries that were largely set by Jay Cutler, but in Points games I'll take that back in part. I see no way Eddie Royal avoids taking the Wes Welker role in Josh McDaniels' transplanted New England offense, and Royal's a shade cheaper in 2009. Not in 2010.

KC
Dwayne Bowe is not fast, but he wasn't fast the last two years, either. So far he's gotten himself open, even if slowly, 156 times. The speed matters in Categories games, but with no Tony Gonzalez around Bowe is maybe the one best bet in the league to catch 100-plus passes. At least shortlist him in Points games.

OAK
I'm almost ashamed to admit that the list of cheapo WRs who interest me very definitely includes Johnnie Lee Higgins. But Darren McFadden has all but made my teams already, and owning even one Raider is just begging to be creamed. The argument for Higgins goes like this: the one thing JaMarcus Russell can do is throw the ball a long ways. The Raiders know this; Darrius Heyward-Bey is near-perfectly matched to Russell's set of (one) skills, and Higgins is something like 85-percent of what the team hopes Heyward-Bey will become. Hell, Fanball's inelegant rookie pricing makes Higgins the cheaper of the two in 2009. Someone, please, talk me out of this.

SD
Vincent Jackson, like Andre Johnson, would earn his '09 pay simply by duplicating his '08 numbers. A.J.'s likelier to do it, though. Far more intriguing to me is Malcolm Floyd, whose career numbers (52 catches, 821 yards (15.8 average), 8 TDs) would do quite nicely for his salaries. Those career numbers are about what I'll expect if Floyd displaces Chris Chambers as SD's second starter. But it hasn't happened yet.

DAL
Roy Williams was putrid in 2008, no two ways about it. He was putrid in DET, where Calvin Johnson posted huge numbers, and he was putrid in DAL in turn. He was so bad that it's possible the Cowboys' best WR (Jason Witten doesn't count) is Miles Austin, who's been little more than a fly-pattern specialist to this point in his career. I like that sort of thing in Categories games, especially with Witten pulling safeties away from those deep routes, but Austin needs to triple his receptions to help much. Make this a new rule: bet on exactly one player per season to double his numbers, and exactly no players to triple them.

NYG
The rookie (Hakeem Nicks) is likely the best of this crummy lot of WRs, but I won't own a rookie WR absent a Randy Moss-like preseason. Does every team produce a player with challenge-worthy receiving numbers? Every team with a great quarterback, maybe; not these Giants.

PHI
I've been planning on ditching DeSean Jackson ever since his Leon Lett incident a year ago. Couldn't do it in '08, though -- he was too cheap -- and I'm not sure I can do it in '09, either. It's the legs that count, not the brains, and Jackson has the legs to boost not only your receiving average (14.7) but even your rushing average (his 17 attempts gained 96 yards, a 5.6 average that's a far cry from the usual failed end-arounds). Any reason to think he'll be worse in Year 2?

WAS
Does every team produce a player with challenge-worthy receiving numbers? Every team with a great quarterback, maybe; not these Hogs.

CHI
Jay Cutler looks downfield first, and that means balls go to his fastest guys first. Devin Hester and Greg Olsen make my teams for sure.

DET
I said there was one receiver in the NFL I'd own despite real doubts about his likely QB's basic competence. I meant Calvin Johnson, not Johnnie Lee Higgins.

GB
I've been wrong about Greg Jennings every year of his career -- and always the same way. I've never owned him; I've always regretted it. And I'm not planning on owning him in 2009, either. Today. But I'm closer than ever before, for whatever that's worth. I'd also own James Jones in a heartbeat if he happened to supplant Donald Driver, but Driver still looks OK.

MIN
So -- Favre again. Bernard Berrian gets more valuable, but not by nearly enough.

ATL
The best way to take advantage of a fully-priced Roddy White is by owning Matt Ryan, who has a solid floor under him in the persons of White and Tony Gonzalez. They may be the best-matched pair of ball-catchers in the league, perfect complements to one another. As for White himself, I prefer fully six of the eight more expensive WRs in the Football Challenge (Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, Randy Moss and Andre Johnson; not Terrell Owens or Reggie Wayne). Just no room.

CAR
There are good arguments that Steve Smith will do more for your receiving average than any other WR in 2009, and that I'm nuts to own Calvin Johnson instead given the QB situation in Detroit. To which I can only reply, Jake Delhomme? Really?

NO
I feel much the same way about the Saints' WRs as the Patriots' RBs. There are too many of them; I'm never sure which one will do what from week to week. Perfect health for Marques Colston might change that view a bit, but I'm not sure I trust that he's perfect just yet.

TB
The bit about quarterbacks and basic competence again. Antonio Bryant is underrated but no Calvin Johnson, and Raheem Morris is all itchy to make a star of Josh Freeman. Maybe he'll do that. In 2011, like.

ARZ
Larry Fitzgerald remains nearly automatic, even at the very tops of the salary lists. 96 catches at 14.9 yards each will do that -- and he was two full notches better in the playoffs. Anquan Boldin's grousing makes him seem likelier to drop off than he may actually be -- but it's not just the grousing, either. Steve Breaston is pretty good. Own Fitzgerald and wait for one of the other two to get hurt.

SF
I don't believe Michael Crabtree will set the NFL on fire -- ever -- but I do think he's better than the 49ers' other receivers. Pass.

SEA
I've written previously that the Seahawks give me the blahs for 2009. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is no solution to that; he's a good part of the problem.

STL
The Rams had one receiver worth remembering (Donnie Avery), and he's pretty badly hurt at the moment.

I'll carry eight WRs in most games (assuming that 6 start). In the Football Challenge I'm looking at this mix at the moment:

Larry Fitzgerald ($2180)
Calvin Johnson ($2050)
Randy Moss ($1760)
Chad Ochocinco ($1440)
DeSean Jackson ($1160)
Anthony Gonzalez ($1020)
Devin Hester ($900)
Mike Walker ($400)

But I'm shaky on Walker. In Fanball's Points games, where I generally go cheaper at the position (but, note: the salaries here are twice as high, with a $60-million cap in place of the Football Challenge's $30-million), I'm looking at this:

Greg Jennings ($3390)
Dwayne Bowe ($3090)
Marques Colston ($3050)
Chad Ochocinco ($2790)
Eddie Royal ($1970)
Devin Hester ($1890)
Anthony Gonzalez ($1870)
DeSean Jackson ($1790)

And I'd like to go cheaper still, but, again, there are just too few viable cheapos at the moment. Injuries await, I suppose, or we'll all be wed to Kyle Orton the same way I was to Aaron Rodgers a year ago -- a scarier thought this year than last.

Tight ends and kickers coming next time.

I promise, next time will come sooner than this time did.

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