Viva Murillo!
The worst thing you can do in a fantasy draft is reach for a player that you could have gotten a round or two later. Wait, that's not the worst; that's the second-worst. The worst thing you can do is let the guy you really want go by because you don't want to "reach" for him … and then watch someone else grab him.
So much of fantasy drafts are psychological, it's easy to get caught up in the moment. You don't want to be a homer and select everyone from your favorite team. You don't want to take all the players who were good last year and just assume you'll get that production again. And you definitely don't want to focus on the guys who made your jaw drop in a preseason game.
But reaching for players? I don't have a problem with it -- within reason, of course. But you have to remember that you're not the only owner who has players on his radar screen. If just one other owner likes that same player, then the player isn't guaranteed to be on your team. And depending on where you draft, you might not have much of a shot at all.
Let's say you're high on the Bengals this year and you think that the return of Carson Palmer will help them return to respectability. You think guys like Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad EightFive are undervalued. None of them will be in the top half-dozen players drafted at their position so you have a chance to get some real value. Sounds good, right?
Well, let's also say you have a top three pick, or you draft at the end of the round. If you think it's still too early and decide to wait, you're giving most other owners two bites at that apple. If one of them feels the way you do, you're not likely to get the guys you want. In fact, they can wait another round and still draft before you go again. That leaves you wishing you had the player you wanted instead of the player you thought you were "supposed" to take.
At the end of the year, nobody cares about where you took your best guys. I drafted DeAngelo Williams in a couple of leagues last year, and I have no idea where I took him. It doesn't matter. If an owner had taken Williams a couple rounds earlier, people might have said he "reached" for him. But if you're reaching for a trophy, nobody cares about reaching during a draft.
Of course, you can go overboard, so I'm not advocating taking your favorite defense in the third round. But I advise you to take the players you want when you want. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun, you know. You're allowed to play your hunches. And if you're drafting from a spot where you have a long wait until your next selection, you almost have to play your hunches. You definitely don't want to see your targets on other teams.
If you lose with the guys you like, you can probably live with that. But if you end up watching the guys you like have huge years for other owners, that's tough to take. Go ahead and draft the players that will help you win, even if other people think it's a little early. In reality, they might just be unhappy that you drafted those guys before they could.
You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.
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Posted by David Grace | Aug. 25 at 05:59 AM
This is great advice. I "reached" for Calvin Johnson last year in the start up draft for a dynasty league, I took him at 3.02. It sure worked out for me.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 25 at 06:38 AM
This is your subtle way of encouraging me to use an early pick on Brett Favre, isn't it?
Posted by L DALE GANDER | Aug. 25 at 12:34 PM
It is a matter of philosophy, I suppose, but I totally have the opposite opinion on this. There are only two ways your team can totally tank: 1) You get a severe injury bug, and 2) You reach for players. Passing on a player will almost never cost you the season. Taking a player before you should easily can. In fact, I have been in the habit in recent years of only moving players DOWN my draft board. I don't move players up 15 spots to make sure I get someone. Sure, I don't have my "favorite" players on my team, but it has worked masterfully for me. Last year, I watched 4 rounds in a row where the guy I wanted was taken just ahead of my next pick and thought I should have taken them a round earlier. Turns out none of those guys panned out anyway, so why again was I so anxious to reach for them. It is fun, but I believe the winning philosophy is to always take value - not reach for names. I know, Mr. Murillo...I'm boring like Ian.
Posted by MICHAEL MURILLO | Aug. 25 at 02:20 PM
I don't think you or Ian are boring; you have to play the way you want. Whatever works for you is great. But I think people should feel comfortable playing their strategy. If you did well by not getting the players you wanted (because they didn't pan out)...the strategy was flawed to begin with, right? Suppose they had all gone off and you were right on the money? I understand that value of, well, value...but you win by getting the best guys on your team. If you think there's a difference-maker out there, I say get him and reap the rewards, no matter whether it's a "reach" or not. If he's just in a group of potential candidates, then I agree-- there's no reason to worry about it. Andy will slyly draft Favre as his backup, but the "starter" will be the fantasy version of Sage Rosenfels. He knows it's just a matter of time before he's bumped out of that spot. Looks like the name of the league (Favre Farewell Tour) was a stroke of genius-- THREE YEARS AGO.