Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

I keep telling you that I dislike preseason football, but this year I just absolutely deplore it. The games have told us almost nothing. The injuries have been of the just-enough-to-worry-without-knowing-either-way variety -- Carson Palmer’s ankle sprain, Kyle Orton’s damaged finger. One such mild injury felled the rookie I really wanted to get a look at; Beanie Wells has hardly played. Honestly, I’d struggle to tell you ten things I know now that I didn’t know a month ago. I might struggle to reach five.

But no new information is its own kind of information. I wanted a clearer picture of how some of the cheapo running backs might be used, for instance, and I haven’t gotten that, and that’s caused me to focus more intently on what I do know with certainty:

I know which teams will face each other every week of the season.

And I also know -- and this is crucial to remember -- it’s harder to fit your Kickoff Weekend lineups under the various games’ salary caps than to fit your Week 5 lineups under the same caps. A handful of very cheap players will soon enough be (mostly) dependable week-in-and-out starters. Your first job is to survive until they emerge.

If I can’t base my last few roster decisions on all of the new info I expected to have by now, I can at least base them on something. Here are the decisions I’m struggling with as we creep up on the entry deadlines, and the lines of thought I’m running down in trying to make those decisions.

QUARTERBACK

Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer have made virtually all of my teams, Palmer on the remaining possibility that I’m getting the old semistud instead of the gimpy later version. Of course, he’s gimpy right now. He’ll open the year on my various benches.

In most games I’m looking for five QBs total, and in most games I’m still figuring on plugging Kyle Orton into one of the last two slots. Shaky preseason decision-making notwithstanding … Brandon Marshall’s disappearing act notwithstanding … right, and the finger, too, notwithstanding … Orton still has the keys to one of the sleeker offenses in the NFL. Among the very few preseason plusses (not that I ever root for injuries, but I’m grasping here) is that Chris Simms can’t possibly take Orton’s job for at least a few weeks.

The last slot could go to almost anyone. I still think the top-salaried guys are too expensive to carry, but I’ve started to look harder at Kurt Warner, the cheapest of those top-salaried guys.

My favorite breakout candidate is the same as everyone else’s -- I like Matt Ryan -- but I worry that an offseason’s study may have given the savvier defensive coaches an idea of how to rattle him. Maybe I’m overthinking this, but it’s a smart league; no one beats it all of the time; a QB who had so much success as a rookie is a dead setup for a sophomore mini-slump. I’ll probably roster Ryan, but he’ll open on my taxi squads as the Sparano / Parcells braintrust tests the theory in Week 1.

The alternatives to Orton as a salary saver are almost nonexistent. I like Trent Edwards better than Joe Flacco, but I may be wrong. Brett Favre isn’t quite cheap, but the old man has a nice schedule early on; the toughest D he’ll face before Week 6 is Green Bay’s, and something tells me he’ll be OK in that game.

RUNNING BACK

My brother built an auction team around DeAngelo Williams a few weeks ago, and I have to say that team looks good on paper. Spurred in part by familial faith, I’ve come around on Williams; I’m leaning toward carrying him along with Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner and shuffling the three into one or two slots according to matchups and salary. Only Peterson starts in Week 1 (at CLE) in most games.

The rest of the drama here is at the bottom of the salary range, where zero injuries ahead of Ahmad Bradshaw, Felix Jones and Darren Sproles have me nervous about using any of them until I’ve seen their teams’ for-real backfield rotations. But with none of them active in Week 1, and with Darren McFadden facing a likely blowout loss to San Diego (remember: blowout losers’ RBs don’t work much in the second half), where can I turn?

To the matchups, that’s where.

In most games Ray Rice is the one viable back cheaper than DMC, so he’s making a lot of my teams -- especially because I see the Ravens’ opening (home) date with Kansas City as a sure win. I’m not terribly excited about anyone else (except Knowshon Moreno, but if you’ve been reading these columns you already knew that). Still, some unexciting and profoundly unexciting backs get a bit more stomachable in Kickoff Weekend context.

Unexciting: Pierre Thomas. He’s home against the Lions, and Reggie Bush is nursing the usual array of minor hurts -- both points in his favor. But Thomas himself is hurting, too.

Profoundly unexciting: _______________. I can’t fully admit it, but I may have been too cute a few weeks ago when I said I’d never again type the name of a certain Bengals RB. I’ll admit this much: Cincy’s early schedule isn’t just good. It’s ideal.

vs. DEN

at GB

vs. PIT

at CLE

at BAL

Start, start, sit, start, sit -- easy decisions, all -- and by Week 6 you’ll either have a replacement for _______________ or you’ll know that God has abandoned you.

Moreno, McFadden, Rice and maybe _______________ are all likely inclusions on at least some of my opening rosters; I won’t carry more than one of Bradshaw / Jones / Sproles unless something dramatic happens over the next week.

WIDE RECEIVER

I’m locked in on all of the cheapest WRs I’ll carry: Anthony Gonzalez, Devin Hester and DeSean Jackson in all games; Eddie Royal as well in Points.

At the tops of the various salary lists I keep going back and forth among a handful of players. Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss have punched their tickets in Categories games. Still under consideration, alphabetically: Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Chad Ochocinco, Steve Smith, Roddy White. Plus Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker in Points games only.

In Categories, I’m even more keenly focused on receiving average than usual, largely because I know I’m making trouble for myself by carrying Ray Rice and his likely 4 short catches per game. I’m so focused on the category that I’m even rethinking Dallas Clark at TE, trying to work Antonio Gates onto my rosters instead.

At WR, the focus has me leaning away from Andre Johnson (I wrote about that previously) but also leaning away from Calvin Johnson. Try this: Read my “still under consideration” list, two paragraphs up, as a list of QBs instead of WRs:

Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Daunte Culpepper (soon ceding the job to Matt Stafford), Carson Palmer, Jake Delhomme, Matt Ryan.

Which of them do you trust to get the ball farthest downfield most consistently? Me, too: Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Palmer and Ryan. Schaub had nice numbers a year ago, but the guy is erratic and already limping in 2009.

Brees has the weakest arm of the remaining five, which leaves Rivers, Rodgers, Palmer and Ryan -- Jackson, Jennings, Ochocinco and White. At the moment I’m planning on carrying three of them, plus Fitzgerald, Moss and the cheaper players I named earlier.

We’re getting close.

I’ll talk you through the Week 1 schedule next time, including the Thursday night “cheat game,” and after that it’s all in-season maintenance and repair.

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