Andy Richardson
The NFL season is just a few days away -- indeed, a week from now virtually all of the week 1 games will have been played. Most of your drafts have been completed, and it's now time to just set your lineups and watch football. On the off-chance you have too many of those lineups, and you're already agonizing over every little decision, here are a few quickfire tips to help make those choices easier.
1. Don't overthink. Week 1 is the craziest week of the season, because we really have no idea what to expect from a lot of teams. A perfect example is the Falcons last season, who figured to be one of the league's worst teams -- and instead went out and blew the doors off the Lions. Given the huge uncertainty of a week 1 game, overanalyzing the matchups is a mistake. This is not the week to bench a player because one team has an unfavorable history in primetime games in September.
2. Start your higher picks. Hand-in-hand with the previous tip, this is generally the week to favor the player you drafted first over the one you drafted later. We've all got our favorite sleepers, but drafting them with a late-round pick is one thing -- STARTING them in week 1 is another. I spent late-rounders on guys with breakout potential like Percy Harvin, James Davis and Laurent Robinson, but they're not in my week 1 lineup. Drafting them is enough; keep them on your bench until they actually prove your faith in them correct.
3. When possible, avoid injuries. Players get hurt all season long in the NFL. There will be some major injuries in week 1 (like Tom Brady a year ago), as always. Given the injuries that WILL occur, why go near injuries that already have? Pierre Thomas, for example, coming off a sprained knee, is a guy I'd need to see practice fully late in the week before starting him, tempting as it would be with them hosting the Lions. Carson Palmer (ankle) has a good matchup with Denver, and unless I had a clearly better quarterback I'd probably take the risk with him. But I can definitely understand avoiding him given the slightly uncertainty. Knowshon Moreno (knee)? Know-way.
4. Follow the points. Some teams, it's fair to say, have a recent history of being better on defense than on offense. Washington and the Giants played in week 1 last season and the final score was 16-7. They play in week 1 again this season, and unless I used an early pick on Brandon Jacobs or Clinton Portis, I won't be starting anyone in this game. In contrast, the Lions are heading into New Orleans, and if I made a list of the 10 worst defenses in the league, I'd probably put both of those teams on it. That game could feature a lot of top fantasy performers this week -- most on the New Orleans side, but maybe some Lions in garbage-time, too.
It's week 1. You've got an entire season ahead of worrying about matchups, injuries, historical nuances, and how long it will take for your deep sleepers and rookies to emerge. So why get started any earlier than you have to?
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Posted by David Grace | Sep. 07 at 11:03 AM
I think you are mistaken if you think the Saints are going to be a bottom 10 defense. There defensive line had a lot of injuries last year and their secondary has been completely revamped. If you add in the impact of Greg Williams aggressive style I think this defense will surprise a lot of people this year.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Sep. 07 at 12:23 PM
I have noticed some people who are optimistic about the Saints. I like their linebackers, but am doubtful about their secondary and pass rush. Regardless, in this particular game, I can see the Saints putting up a lot of points on the Lions, then surrendering some meaningless yards and points late even if you're correct about them being improved.
Posted by CURT GOLDGRABE | Sep. 07 at 07:55 PM
I have an answer to your last question. Last year, I scored by FAR the fewest points in my league in week 1, and finished the year in second place. If I had any kind of week 1, I would have won my league. It's just like college football now--in fantasy, EVERY WEEK COUNTS!