Viva Murillo!
Setting your lineups can be exciting, stressful, nerve-racking and fun -- in week six. But in week 1 it should be easy as pie. Still, some fantasy owners get a jump-start on the drama by actually tinkering with their lineups before the first game of the season, and I suggest you refrain from being one of those owners.
Look, if you drafted Chris Johnson as your top running back, you should start him. Even against Pittsburgh. At Heinz Field. On Thursday. It probably won't be his best game of the season, but who are you going to start in his place? Unless you have an incredibly-deep bench, your other options aren't as good as Johnson.
Believe me, I'm not a believer in "always start your studs." I think that's putting your team on auto-pilot. You have to put the best players in your lineup, and you can't hand someone a spot based on a name or where you drafted them.
But in week 1? What have they done to lose your confidence? They were good enough to draft but not good enough to start the first game? I think you have to at least give them a chance to validate your strategy or earn your skepticism. Pulling the plug before week 1 seems premature, to say the least.
Like always, there are exceptions. If your strategy included starting Pierre Thomas, you need a Plan B. If you're thin at running back and wanted to start Derrick Ward, the news that Cadillac Williams will be the first on the field was not welcome. But not liking a match-up is not a reason to bench a top pick in week 1, just like an attractive match-up is not a reason to start a lesser player this early. You might want to start Bell against the Lions ... but you don't know how bad the Lions will be this year. What if they're decent now and they beat the Saints, or shut down their running game? Julius Jones gets the Rams at home, but the Seahawks aren't championship-caliber, either. Do you really want to bench a better runner because Jones has a nice-looking contest this week?
I say no. I say start your starters -- the guys you chose to be your workhorses and have done nothing yet to change that viewpoint. You can play with match-ups when you have some data to analyze and an idea regarding who is under-performing and who is surprising teams. Because if the Steelers are the ones who are under-performing on defense, you'll wish you didn't have Johnson on the bench.
Of course, making a switch could pay off this time, but you're setting a bad precedent for yourself. At some point, you're going to get too cute with your lineup and it will cost you. A few years ago I played in a Super Bowl and should have lost by 15 points. But my opponent decided to bench Shaun Alexander for a back with a "great" match-up, and he flopped. I ended up winning instead. While I believe that you should start the guys who give you the best chance to win, you have to give them a chance to justify their draft selection or auction value first. Give them that chance—start your starters in week 1.
You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.
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Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Sep. 08 at 12:38 PM
98%of the time, you start your starters unless they are all of equal value AND are second-tier or lower...If you have a top 5 talent, it doesnt matter if they have a tough matchup or not, they will probably score anyway---thats what top players do- score on whoever they play, otherwise they would be second-tier (if they couldnt score against tough competition..
Posted by john stolzmann | Sep. 08 at 04:35 PM
You say you're not a believer in "always start your studs." Yet for week 1 you are saying that is exactly what you should do. If you are playing Chris Johnson against Pittsburgh and benching someone like Ray Rice this week, you are flat out making a mistake. What has Johnson done to lose my confidence? Nothing except playing against one of the toughest defenses. If you aren't a proponent of the "always start your studs" line of reasoning, how is playing against a terrible matchup in week 1 different from playing a terrible matchup in week 6? There is only one reason to ever play anyone. They are your best option. If not, they belong on your bench, no matter what their name is...Just my humble opinion.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Sep. 08 at 04:47 PM
Too late. I've already penciled in my lineup. I've got Ray Rice and Cedric Benson as the starters, and Julius Jones as the flex. Johnson holds the clipboard and rests for week 2.
Posted by Jason Lent | Sep. 08 at 08:18 PM
Hmmm...I must have really followed Ian's advice on draft night. I also have Rice, Benson, and Jones pencilled in this week.
Posted by Richard Wallace | Sep. 09 at 07:20 AM
Me too... Benson and Rice along with D Williams. Best of luck for us.
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Sep. 09 at 04:37 PM
about chris johnson...didnt he put up nearly 100 yds in a half against pitt in the playoffs last year??? (then got hurt)..and it think one of ptts linebackers is hurt...SO START CJ!!! I'm benching stewart to start rice, but they are comparable players, and rice has a great matchup..cj is a lot better fantasy option than either one of those guys, no matter who he plays.
Posted by MICHAEL MURILLO | Sep. 11 at 03:25 PM
Even though Johnson was disappointing, I stand by what I said. If the guy you drafted in the first round isn't worth a start in week 1, he wasn't worth a first-round pick. Unless you have an incredibly-deep bench, I think it would be a mistake most of the time. The difference between week 6 and week 1 is that by week six you've had at least a month to see if they're playing like a first-rounder. Maybe they aren't and you pull the plug. But I hope whatever move you make works out for you. In the end, getting the W is all that matters.