Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

So here we are, finally: Week 1 of actual, honest-to-goodness professional football. Just a few days from the various submission deadlines, my rosters are still somewhat in flux. With the last inclusions (and exclusions) likely to be based on matchups, as I suggested last week, I figure we should take a hard look at the schedule and see where it suggests we go. Several different points bear mentioning.

First, Fantasy Index runs down the whole schedule every week of the season, not just cherry-picking the matchups as I’ve done below but digging for every advantage. I haven’t attempted to steal Ian Allan’s thunder in this column, and I couldn’t possibly do so. Fantasy Index Weekly is my first point of reference every week, and if you ain’t buying it you’re at a real disadvantage; I’ll know things that you don’t literally every week. Best bang for the buck in all of fantasy sports.

Second, most challenge games give you until Saturday night to lock down your rosters. But the season kicks off Thursday, with Tennessee at Pittsburgh. Stats from that game DO count in most of our games, so you get one free crack at guaranteed numbers. Hence the nickname given to that game here and elsewhere: the “cheat game.”

Unfortunately, this particular cheat game is less appealing than many previous ones. If the season started today instead of Thursday, I’d own exactly one player from either of the cheat teams: Chris Johnson. So any other addition will be reactionary by definition; it isn’t just a matter of making start-or-sit decisions based on numbers already in the books; I may decide to own guys I’m not presently planning on, just to get one solid week’s worth of numbers onto my rosters.

Which guys?

Could be anyone. Most NFL games yield at least some ownable numbers – even games played in Pittsburgh, where offenses go to die. Maybe one of the kickers will punch in 12 or 15 points; I’d take that from a one-week rental. Maybe (puh-leaze, football gods) some cheapo WR will haul in a 63-yard score. I’d take that, too.

And what’s this about a one-week rental?

It’s like this: I am struggling to fit my last few roster permutations under the various games’ salary caps. I’ve spent a whole preseason working myself into a lather over some guys, but they don’t all fit together on the same active roster. In Week 1 I really want Adrian Peterson active (he’s at CLE, and if anything Brett Favre’s late entry may cause the Vikings to lean even more heavily on A.D. early on). But I also really want Tom Brady active, and Randy Moss with him, and Aaron Rodgers, and Greg Jennings with him, and ...

Point is, the players I covet most are high-end guys. I like Anthony Gonzalez and everything, but it’s the Larry Fitzgeralds around the league who have me burning up my calculator trying to make the salaries work. And, again, as I wrote last week, that’s more of a problem early on than it will be later in the season.

Right now every truly cheap player is fraught with risk; every one is a potential waste of a roster slot; we just don’t know which non-stars to trust. A few weeks from now that problem will have solved itself, one hopes – some cheapos will become every-week starters for all of us.

But right now? This week? Thursday?

One scrub catches an extra-long pass and I’ll find a spot for him, make one decision easier than it would have been, find a little bit more salary room than I had before he caught that pass. There’s no downside to doing this, because you’re going to be dropping ten or twelve players during the course of the year anyway, and early on it can be very, very hard to know which guys to drop. Going into the year with a scrub on board actually appeals to me.

Okay, so Titans-Steelers. Check the box score Friday morning, then check back here; I’ll try to remember to drop a comment down at the bottom of this column to share any decisions I’ve made based on the cheat game.

Elsewhere ...

Third, you can’t look at the list of scheduled games without thinking about what kind of challenge game you’re playing. Points games, where the points earned by players at all positions get lumped in with the rest of your team’s total, work differently than Categories games, where each player will affect some stat categories but not others.

The following should go without saying, and if you’re not new to playing these games feel free to skip this paragraph, but I’ll say it anyway: If you own more RBs and WRs (typically six of each) than QBs and Ks (typically three of each), and you’re playing a game that includes passing yards and passing average and kicking points as scoring categories, you should take fewer chances at the positions where you own fewer players. One QB who puts up lousy numbers wrecks one-third of your passing yards total. One WR who puts up lousy numbers wrecks less than one-sixth of your receiving yards total, because RBs and TEs catch passes, too. So matchups are one thing, but I’m not playing the matchups blindly. I may own and start Ray Rice in Week 1; he has a very favorable matchup at home against KC. I might own but would NOT start Joe Flacco, who has the same very favorable matchup. Got it?

Fourth, and finally, below are the matchups that I really love and hate. If I haven’t mentioned a game, it’s either because it seems fairly neutral to all involved (like DAL at TB, where one team is better but not great and the other team is likely to play passable defense at home) or because I just don’t have any interest in starting any player on either team (like STL at SEA, where Donnie Avery’s broken foot just carries too much risk; note, however, that I’m impressed enough by Avery’s toughness to think about rostering him as a deep-threat salary match for Anthony Gonzalez and Devin Hester in Categories games).

LOVE

BAL (vs. KC) – for every Raven; I’m likely to start Ray Rice and Steven Hauschka in most games.

CIN (vs. DEN) – for _______________, the Bengals RB whose name I’ve vowed never to type again; the matchup is not bad for Carson Palmer or Chad Ochocinco, either, but given Palmer’s recent gimpiness I’ll try to hold at least one of them out; note that I don’t like the matchup from Denver’s perspective nearly as much as I would ordinarily, because Kyle Orton and Knowshon Moreno are both injury question marks.

MIN (at CLE) – for Adrian Peterson, as mentioned previously, but not for Brett Favre; I won’t roster Favre myself, though I’m guessing many challenge players will; I want to see a big game or two before I’ll expect more than Brett the Jet.

NO (vs. DET) – for everyone on the Saints’ roster, down to the punter; they won last year’s game (in Detroit) 42-7; I like the game so much that I’ll think about using Mike Bell as a scrubby salary-saver if (a) Pierre Thomas is indeed out, as it looks like he may be, and (b) no one from the cheat game saves the salary I need saved.

ARZ (vs. SF) – for Kurt Warner (I’ll start him in Points games), Larry Fitzgerald (of course) and Steve Breaston if Anquan Boldin is out – but not for Breaston or Boldin if a less-than-full-go Boldin plays, which looks likely; I’d also like the matchup as a likely shootout for SF’s passing game – the Cards’ D looks atrocious – but that’d mean owning some part of SF’s passing game, so never mind.

GB (vs. CHI) – for Aaron Rodgers, who’s been on fire for weeks already, and for Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings and Mason Crosby along with him; I also like the matchup from CHI’s perspective, but less so; the most attractive piece of that offense is Matt Forte, and there’s at least a 35-percent chance that GB goes up big and Forte loses carries in the second half; that might be good for Devin Hester, but then I couldn’t have made the salaries work without Hester anyway.

NE (vs. BUF) – as the surest win on the board in the whole league, what with Tom Brady back on a Monday night and the Bills just having reset their offense; I live in Ithaca now, and I’ve adopted these Bills as my new home team, and right about now I’m introducing them exactly that way: “This is my ADOPTED home team. No blood relation.”

SD (at OAK) – as another sure win; you have to like the number of ways the Chargers can score points: top QB, one of the best in-waiting RBs in the league (Darren Sproles) in case LaDainian Tomlinson doesn’t bounce back, semistud WR in Vincent Jackson with a near-clone waiting in Malcolm Floyd, stud TE, stud K; the one player I worry about this week is Jackson, because Nnamdi Asomugha apparently intends to play, cast and all, and he can’t be too happy about the 5-for-148 Jackson put up in Week 14 last year.

HATE

TEN (at PIT) – naturally, what with this as the cheat game that could in theory solve my salary problems.

KC (at BAL) – and I don’t expect this to be a low-scoring game for BAL, either, which means that Larry Johnson isn’t just running against the Ravens – he’s running against the clock; some time in the third quarter KC will go into desperation mode, and L.J. will become an afterthought.

CAR (vs. PHI) – not as strong a hatred as I feel for some of these other matchups, but the Eagles have enough to win this game comfortably, even on the road, and that means DeAngelo Williams has the same dual downside as Larry Johnson, albeit writ small.

CLE (vs. MIN) – but it isn’t just the matchup; if it’s Brown(s), as they say at the other Ivy League schools, flush it.

NYG (vs. WAS) – perhaps the only surprise inclusion here, but I don’t trust any of the Giants’ pass-catchers, and Washington was 8th against the run in 2008 before adding Albert Haynesworth; note, however, that I like the matchup just fine for K Lawrence Tynes, who may benefit from his teammates’ likely fits and starts.

BUF (at NE) – but it isn’t just the matchup here, either; all of my preseason mumblings about liking Trent Edwards were built upon the thought that the no-huddle would eventually work, and work well with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans on opposite sides of the field – but with the Bills the latest team to join the can-a-coordinator craze, no one can say with certainty what the offense will come to look like; in any event, with the coordinator transition AND Marshawn Lynch serving an early suspension AND the line an unmitigated disaster, the first few weeks of the season (at least) will be ugly; if I were a betting man – and fantasy football kinda makes me one, no? – I’d lay the points on Monday night.

OAK (vs. SD) – I’d like the Raiders marginally better if Shawne Merriman happened to draw a suspension for his domestic incident over the weekend, but I’ve yet to see any indication that the league is considering such a suspension; meanwhile I’ve been turning cartwheels trying to avoid starting Darren McFadden in Week 1, because I expect a blowout and that would mean DMC gets only a fraction of his usual fractional share of the work; home games are good for RBs, but not when the home team is obviously outclassed; OAK could finish an almost respectable second in the AFC West, say at 6-10 or even 7-9, but it cannot hang with the Chargers.

We’ll see how much I’ve had right and wrong for the past couple of months soon. Good luck to all, this week especially; these columns will continue, but there’s nothing quite like the thrill of deciding on that final-final-final roster, is there?

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