Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff
So I used a few purchases last week, against my own advice in this space, and the challenge gods didn't look too kindly on it. Drew Brees threw 29 times for just 172 yards in his first week on my Football Challenge team. Felix Jones was fantastic ... then hurt himself.
Lesson learned?
Nah.
I still like what I did.
It's absolutely clear that we'll have to spend more on QBs in categories games this year than in years past; only Joe Flacco has been really good among the cheapos, and the next seemingly reliable options are more than a million salary dollars more expensive. I'm sure I'll eventually start Carson Palmer, same as I'd eventually (like: this week) start Brett Favre if I owned him. But I doubt I'll start Palmer and Flacco together.
Meanwhile, we're going backwards with cheapo RBs. Ray Rice has been everything we could have hoped from a player so near the bottom of the salary lists, but the alternatives?
Mike Bell is done.
Darren McFadden can't outrun the stink of JaMarcus Russell.
Fred Jackson had a lovely run but now falls back into a timeshare -- and perhaps a less than equitable one -- with Marshawn Lynch.
Knowshon Moreno hasn't been healthy enough to take a full load, and Correll Buckhalter has played ridiculously well in the meantime -- well enough (7.4 yards per attempt) that Moreno's likely stuck around his 19-carry average from the last two weeks.
Those same two weeks Darren Sproles has been the lead back in San Diego (granted: against excellent defenses), and has done almost nothing beyond breaking an 81-yard TD catch in Week 2.
I still like Ahmad Bradshaw and Felix Jones, but Jones will miss a week or two and Bradshaw won't be fully dependable until Brandon Jacobs misses a week or two.
So we have to spend at QB -- and we can't really cut at RB, either. I don't even want to cut at TE, where it looks like I was right to think Antonio Gates would boost his receiving average enough (he's at 15.0 yards per catch) to make a real difference vis-à-vis the Jason Wittens (9.5) of the world -- and Anthony Gonzalez's injury has shot Dallas Clark out of a cannon (14 catches, 245 yards, 2 TDs in Weeks 2-3).
All of which leaves us cutting like mad at WR.
I wrote in the Comments section below last week's column that the key to using Brees (or any very expensive player, really -- Peyton Manning if you prefer; Adrian Peterson) is picking the right cheapo WRs to offset his salary. This column aims to help you do just that.
Note that the analysis is different in points games, where Brees probably isn't worth owning no matter how cartoonish his final numbers will be. Where QBs don't control whole categories by themselves, the top guys don't separate themselves enough from the next tier down. Two straight weeks I've started Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco as my three QBs in Fanball's $50K points game (combined salary: $10,720; Brees costs $6,440 -- 60% as much -- by himself). In Week 2 -- the first week I went with those three -- I jumped from 98th overall to 6th. In Week 3 I tumbled all the way from 6th to 9th.
So you won't need them as desperately -- but cheapo WRs have their place in points games, too, and for the most part I favor the same players there as in categories. From 9th overall in points, 3rd-15th-180th in the Football Challenge, this is where I go next:
1. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX
I don't regret any of the purchases I made a week ago, but I kinda wish I'd made room for Sims-Walker even so. This was the cheapo I most wanted to own before the season started, you may recall -- he was just Mike Walker back then -- but his preseason was a big mess of injuries. Now? 6 catches each in Weeks 2 and 3, for a total of 187 yards and 1 TD. He's the one player worth building a passing offense around in Jacksonville; I like him only slightly less than I liked Brandon Marshall two years ago. $400 in categories, $1,000 in points.
2.(tie) Mario Manningham, NYG
Manningham is for real as Eli Manning's downfield option. I bought him last week in the Football Challenge; his 4-for-55 is pretty much exactly what I'll expect every week. He's small -- his TD total (2 at present) may top out around 7 -- but he's quick enough to keep the receiving average healthy, and I expect him to finish between 1,000 and 1,200 yards. $400 in categories, $1,000 in points.
2.(tie) Steve Smith, NYG
I lean to Manningham in categories games, Smith in points. Smith seems to be Eli's security option; Eli definitely looks for him before Manningham underneath, and that's good both ways -- it protects Manningham's average while upping Smith's points one tick at a time. Also, until Hakeem Nicks returns (he's slightly taller and much sturdier than Manningham or Smith), Smith is likely to be featured in the red zone. His TD Sunday came from 4 yards out. $400 in categories, $1,370 in points.
4. Malcolm Floyd, SD
Kind of an all-or-nothing option, and as such much better for categories than points. Floyd is one of Philip Rivers' preferred deep targets -- receptions of 45 and 47 yards in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively. But he'll have some weeks when he catches nothing nearly that long (Week 1: 1-for-17), and he'll have some weeks when he catches nothing at all. Even if the Chargers were to pull Chris Chambers off the field entirely -- and they should and almost have -- there's no guarantee that Floyd would be their No. 2 ahead of the sublimely named Legedu Naanee. $780 in categories, $1,430 in points.
5. No one else at the moment -- and I mean it.
I held Josh Morgan instead of dropping him in the Football Challenge, and he was fine in Week 3 -- 4-for-47 -- but unlike with Greg Jennings, I'm not convinced Morgan's catchless Week 2 was but a blip on the proverbial radar. He's the downfield guy on a team with awful quarterbacking and an excellent running game. I may be able to milk Morgan for a couple of weeks while Frank Gore is out -- the 49ers figure to pass more often -- but come Week 6, when SF has its bye and JAX is home against the Rams, Morgan goes and Sims-Walker comes on in his place.
And past Morgan?
Laurent Robinson looked OK with Marc Bulger throwing to him, but he's done for the year with a high ankle sprain and fractured fibula (and Bulger looks likely to miss a couple of weeks, so I wouldn't have recommended Robinson anyway). Chaz Schilens should be back soon, but that means buying directly into JaMarcus Russell. Robert Meachem and Chansi Stuckey both had good games in Week 1, but they've been sub-serviceable since, and there's reason to doubt that either will turn it around. Meachem's stuck among too many good receiving options in New Orleans. Stuckey ain't so stuck with the Jets, but Mark Sanchez -- impressive as he's been -- remains a rookie. He has several bad games in front of him.
The smart play is to move on the cheapest cheapos you happen to like sooner than later. I see the best options as Sims-Walker and Manningham in categories games, Sims-Walker and Smith in points. Playing both with some mix of Devin Hester and DeSean Jackson (among the mid-range WRs), Vincent Jackson and Chad Ochocinco (the next level up), and whichever uberstuds you prefer, should work well enough to keep you from falling far behind at one position while you have (nearly) enough to spend at the others.
Do this now. Until another cheapo RB emerges -- and maybe until two emerge -- I'm betting you need the salary relief right now. I know I do.
I'll be loading up on RBs in the points games for the foreseeable future, playing Adrian Peterson AND Maurice Jones-Drew AND Chris Johnson most weeks, adding Michael Turner or DeAngelo Williams to them according to matchups, probably mixing in Matt Forte and/or Steve Slaton in time.
In the categories games I'll be playing even more matchups, some weeks spending heavily on QBs, some weeks more heavily on RBs, some weeks aiming for balance between them.
I felt smart again this past week, after feeling decidedly dumb in Week 2. We'll see which way things break in the end ...
(And, aside: I know one of you, poor Kevin Dallas, is doomed to think I'm an idiot forever. I keep giving the guy exactly the wrong advice by e-mail.)
... but for now I'm excited to see the rest of the season. 9th overall in one game worth $50,000, 180th in a second. Let's not go spending that money yet, but I like our chances.
- Comments [23]
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Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Sep. 30 at 05:49 AM
Justin: I still have not made a purchase in a points league while other team owners have made at least 2 and one as many as 9. Due to a slight miscalculation (and some poor picking) on my part, I find that the only WR I have on my bench to replace Fitz (bye) this week is Donnie Avery, who I do not consider usable now or in the foreseeable future. WR's currently on my roster are Fitz, R. Moss, Colston, Holmes, An. Johnson, Morgan, R. White, D. Jackson & Avery. I kind of agree with your assessment of Morgan's short term value, but I'm not sold on him long term. Do you think it's time to replace him with Sims-Walker or Smith now or stick with him a couple more weeks? As far as this week, do you think I should pick up Wayne who has a comparable salary to Fitz and An. Johnson and could replace both of them on byes or pick up V. Jackson or Ochocinco who are more moderately priced and would gave me more cap flexibilty? Which one do you like better long term, V-Jax or Ocho? Thanks in advance for your input.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Sep. 30 at 07:18 AM
Last things first: If you told me Carson Palmer would FOR SURE be his old self soon, I'd prefer Ochocinco. Much less competition there; Gates is great and I really like both Floyd and Naanee; Jackson may find himself in a situation much like Colston's in NO. That said, today, no question I take Jackson (and Rivers) before Ochocinco (and Palmer). And I'd probably buy either of those guys before Wayne, but that's because I'm always, always thinking about where else I can spend money. Wayne's great, and certainly great with Gonzalez down, but is he that much better than the guys who cost nearly $1.5M less? And what else could you spend that on? You're probably right about Avery and Morgan - I just don't see those guys as plays in points games. You really want guaranteed VOLUME catches, however many (or few) yards they may go for. Avery and Morgan are good protect-the-average cheap (cheapish in Avery's case) WRs, but you own them in a game where that protection doesn't count. That said, you might hold Morgan one more week and see what the SF offense will look like if Gore misses a long stretch. I've only used one purchase in points - dropped Bell for J-D last week, just in time it turned out - but I'm fairly likely to burn once more, for S-W, myself.
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 02 at 06:04 AM
Week 4 looks like this for me in points K Longwell, Haushka, Tynes (Reed)/ QB Favre, Rodgers, Brees (Brady, Warner) / RB Slaton, CJ, ________, Rice, Forte, AP (MJD, LT, Williams, Bell) / WR Holmes, V. Jackson, R. Moss, Moore, Henry, Morgan (D. Jackson, A. Gonzalez, L. Robinson) / TE Finley, Celek (bye) DF SD, Min (PHI) Maybe you can change my mind about this lineup for week 4.
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 02 at 06:09 AM
Anthony Fasano is really tempting.... I know what you said about TEs, but Buffalo gives up alot of TE points and Chad Henne will throw to him often.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 03 at 10:18 AM
Money and mouth in the same place: added Sims-Walker to my FC team (already had Manningham, as mentioned above); added Smith AND Sims-Walker in points.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 03 at 10:21 AM
James: No real argument except that I like my cheap WRs better than yours. Again, you could stand to cut $ at DEF - are those teams really earning for you?
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 03 at 10:29 AM
Actually, James, I'd probably do this: dump a DEF for SF, add Dallas Clark. That avoids both byes and gets you a top scorer at TE, may not cost you anything at all because SF is good (but also cheap). Two buys - it's kind of a commitment - and of course Clark will hurt himself this weekend if you do it, but ...
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 03 at 04:35 PM
Justin, thanks that was easy... I wish I had Devin Hester or Santana Moss, but 3 buys is my limit going in to week 4.... Lance Moore is limited and I don't think I can buy again. The over is high in the Balt/NE game and I'm wondering if Brady is better start than Brees???
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 03 at 06:30 PM
I saw that over/under number, and Ian mentioned it in this week's Fantasy Index Weekly. We agree that it's not only high but TOO high. NE's defense is pretty good, and as good as Flacco has been I don't like any young QB playing at Belichick. I mean, no one doubts that Matt Ryan is at least as good as Flacco, right? And what'd Ryan do last week? And as for the other side of the game, I know Rivers passed for a zillion yards against them, but the Ravens are still some semblance of the Ravens, no? Brees is home; NYJ will blitz all game because that's what they do, but if he doesn't happen to leave the game with an injury he'll eventually start to carve them up. This isn't Brady in Week 2, seeing a legit heavy rush for the first time in 12 months. This is Brees, on top of his game, finding whichever guy happens to be open when an extra rusher comes. I started Brees / Roethlisberger / Palmer in the Football Challenge, sitting Brady / Rodgers / Flacco. I'm solid on each decision, and if you read between the lines you'll see I'm saying as much about the opposing defenses (NYJ, SD, CLE instead of BAL, MIN, NE) as the QBs themselves. This week is about matchups for me, most definitely. I'll believe these Jets are the '91 Eagles on Monday, maybe, but not before then.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 03 at 06:42 PM
(Note: I know I wrote just a couple of weeks ago that the Pats' D was lousy. I've changed my mind. Rain or no, that was a thorough beating they handed the Falcons in Week 3.)
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 04 at 01:36 AM
Brees and Forte Brady and MJD?
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 04 at 01:37 AM
Brees and Forte or Brady and MJD?
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 04 at 02:59 AM
Sorry I got to this late, but here's hoping you went with Brees and Forte. I don't think it's especially close; I'd rather have Brees than Brady AND rather have Forte than J-D this week.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 04 at 09:20 AM
Brees is killing me in the Football Challenge - this proving they can win games however they want is utter crap for our purposes. But it's shaping up as a MONSTER week in points - like 400+ points monster. Hope the news is good for you guys.
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 04 at 09:39 AM
SF DF may have saved me.... 36 points from a Defense. Morgan, Moss with TDs. Went with Forte and Brees... Brady did have a rushing TD. Rodgers and Favre, Peterson, V Jackson, Holmes, MIN DF need a big week.
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 04 at 09:43 AM
Denver DF looked good... I'm glad I went with your advice but SF/DEN could make way for cap room. Steve Smith is the guy in NYG. I could easily use 5 byes next week... leaving me with 4. Manning for Brees???
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 04 at 09:45 AM
buys, byes are making me nuts... I didn't want to start Brees, but Warner on a bye and Brady well he still looks uncomfortable.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 04 at 10:28 AM
No way if you own Brees already. He'll finish with better numbers than Manning - I'm like 89% sure of that, and even if it's wrong it's not bad wrong. That'd be a waste of a buy. Ride it out or you'll swap out Brees' next HUGE week for Manning's first lousy one. Glad you took the SF advice - they were ridiculous today.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 04 at 10:32 AM
By the way, my exacta happens to be Houston / San Fran. By my math that's 57 points this week, for less than $2400 total, and Houston isn't even good. That's why I verrrrrry rarely pay for DEFs.
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 04 at 01:57 PM
I'm at 210 with Favre, Rodgers, MINN DF, Longwell, AP, and Finley yet to play... would you take the over or under on 300 for the week and how far am I dropping from 49th ovr? This felt like a bad week... I guess Steve Smith instead of L. Robinson would have helped.
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 04 at 02:21 PM
Looking to next week... I need to buy a WR. Who should I buy? Steve Smith, Sims-Walker??? Who should I drop? Mike Bell, LT? LT was supposed to be an AFC West special, but planning on starting six specific games with a player is really not realistic and Mike Bell (he's really great if Thomas is out after the bye. Scratching my head a bit over this with Holmes, V. Jackson (bye), D. Jackson, R. Moss, Henry, L. Moore (bye), Gonzalez (out), Morgan. Hate to drop a player without getting a return on him, both Henry and Moore have been hurting and they have to come around.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 04 at 04:09 PM
210 with that many players left is no disaster. I'm at 320 with Rodgers, Peterson, Jennings and Finley active, but this is about the best week I can remember for me in points. I expect to be leading the game overall through four weeks (Psycho Killer, league 45, named for the great Talking Heads song). Let me think about Week 5 a little later.
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 06 at 02:25 AM
It looks like I have 3 mill open for a WR, but I'm thinking Sims-Walker is the guy to add. I don't like being 2 mill under cap, but Sims-Walker can out perform a lot of 3 mill receivers and I'll have cap space after week 5. Chris Henry has had that quad, but replacing him with Sims-Walker gives me 3.5 space for another WR... 2 moves leaves me with 7 for the final 11 weeks. Congrats on the really nice week, glad I'm doing budget (26th ovr) thanks for the help.