Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

I'll keep revisiting the positions just as soon as I get them figured out. This week: quarterback, where the best move for most of us is probably no move at all.

Much of what follows assumes that you're playing a nuanced, categories-based game, where QBs have near-total control of two whole categories -- passing yards and passing average. Points-based games work differently; I'll address them quickly at the close of this column.

First, though, when you need yards and average specifically (as in Fanball's Football Challenge -- and I'll use the Football Challenge salaries in writing about individual QBs below), this is how you get them:

Hold tight. Use the QBs you already own. I think we have the right guys.

My Football Challenge quarterbacks -- and notice that I have six of them, one more than I'd typically like -- are Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco. With the possible exception of Palmer (not sure how often I'll need him in place of Flacco), I'm pretty sure I'll hold all of them for a while now.

You may not have quite the same mix, but I'm guessing you're not far off. And there are several moving parts here, but this is what I think of as ideal for the time being:

OWN ONE OF:
Drew Brees ($4190),
Peyton Manning ($3800)

I bought Brees two weeks ago, just in time for Weeks 3 and 4: 362 passing yards -- total -- at 5.9 per attempt, 0 TDs. Manning during the same weeks: 732 yards at 9.6 per attempt, 6 TDs. Whoops.

But you know what Brees did in Weeks 1 and 2, and you also know his numbers will be great at the end of the season; they always are. My mistake was in the timing, not the player I bought.

I'm not saying Manning won't be great too (he will be), and I'm not saying he can't beat Brees for the rest of the year (he could, of course). What I'm saying is that you can't use two QBs this expensive without crippling your teams elsewhere, and switching Brees out for Manning would be wasting a purchase. I expect Brees to have the better numbers the rest of the way. At worst I think it's a wash. New Orleans' D is better coached now than it has been recently, but it still has middling personnel, so Brees has some shootouts coming. Manning is cheaper but not by enough.

OWN TWO OR THREE OF:
Philip Rivers ($3420)
Tom Brady ($3000)
Ben Roethlisberger ($2980)
Aaron Rodgers ($2770)
Matt Ryan ($2730)

I always planned to carry Brady and Rodgers and use them frequently, and then Big Ben butted in with his huge cheat game. So those three were among the five QBs I started the season with.

No real complaints.

One thing I did wrong was to lean too heavily on Brady in his first games back after missing a year. Peyton Manning should've taught me that lesson a year ago with his slow start: even top QBs need recent repetitions. The NFL is too fast for a quarterback to step out and back in without losing anything.

OK, but Brady's clearly going to be fine, and New England's defense, while not as bad as I originally suspected, isn't as good as it was two years ago, either. If I recall correctly, Brady's numbers were just fine back then.

Rodgers is automatic as long as he's ambulatory. Dude is a legit top-five player at the position, and his defense is still coming together in the 3-4; shootouts are likely most weeks. The one concern is that Rodgers has been taking a brutal beating -- and not just from Jared Allen, either. There are at least two turnstiles across the Pack's O-line; I fear for Rodgers' health if they don't get things patched during this week's bye.

I had planned to replace Roethlisberger with Ryan after the Falcons' bye (now behind them), but that move is on the back burner for now. Until Troy Polamalu returns (at the earliest), there's something wrong with these Steelers on D. And since they can't really run, either -- that is, unless Rashard Mendenhall's new form wasn't a fluke -- Ben is very live as a 4,000-yard possibility. (His career high is 3,513 in 2006; present pace is for 4,772 in 2009.) Ryan's good, but he's no better a play than any of these other guys.

The one wild card is Rivers, who also appears to play for a somewhat surprisingly no-run, no-defense team. If I hadn't bought Brees and was looking for a passer right now, I'd maybe buy Rivers instead of Brees or Manning. That's the only way it makes real sense to own him, though, because the difference between $3420 and these other salaries is considerable.

OWN ZERO OR ONE OF:
Brett Favre ($2060)
Eli Manning ($2020)
Carson Palmer ($1980)

I probably telegraphed this by telling you I'd consider dumping Palmer: I'm leaning toward zero, not one.

Favre would be an obvious must-own if he played the Packers (or perhaps the Jets) every week, but he doesn't. And the week you buy him he'll suffer the injury that finally causes him to miss some time.

Palmer is in much the same shape as Brady: rusty, but working his way into form. He seems to have the in-the-clutch part of his game back after Sunday's overtime win, but that win came against a Browns team he should have destroyed in four quarters. I won't drop Palmer before others' byes are behind me, but I won't use him this weekend at Baltimore, either.

The wild card here is Eli, who may have very quietly turned into a genuine superstar this season. The Giants are winning easily without Plax Burress, not only because other receivers have emerged but because Eli seems to have emerged with them. So naturally he hurt himself in Week 4 and is very questionable for Week 5 (vs. OAK). And you're not wrong to be skeptical, either; he's had good four-game runs before, and one of his four this year (Week 3, at TB) wasn't really good.

OWN ONE OR TWO OF:
Joe Flacco ($1530)
Kyle Orton ($1270)

I was absolutely 100-percent dead wrong about Joe Flacco. I doubted the guy even as Ian convinced me to own him during the preseason, doubted him even when I decided to start him in Week 1. That turned out to be one of his two monster games so far, and he was almost serviceable at New England in Week 4: 264 yards and 2 TDs, but a Brees-like 5.6 yards per attempt. Flacco is a star now and a superstar in the making. I apologize to him and to ... to ...

Still can't do it. Cincy's RB spends one more week (at least) as _______________.

Orton is no alternative to Flacco, but he looks like a fair alternative to the more expensive group above. What stops me from recommending him is that two big chunks of his production -- a total of 138 of his 906 yards -- have come on fluky plays: Brandon Stokley's tip-drill TD in Week 1 and Brandon Marshall's flat-ridiculous winner in Week 4. In Orton's favor is the fact that Marshall finally appears motivated to play for him. Against Orton is the fact that he's wasting his second-best option; he's hit Eddie Royal with just 8 passes in 4 weeks.

In sum, then, save for maybe dropping down a salary level (dumping Brees for Rivers, say, or Palmer for Orton), I don't see the upside to using a purchase on any QB for the time being. There's no doubt that Brees has many better games coming than he's played for me so far. There's no doubt that Brady and Palmer are still on the come. There's no doubt that Flacco is the one best QB to own in 2009 in terms of bang for the buck. If your mix is anything like mine, try to figure out the running backs instead of burning purchases here.

In points games, again, the analysis is different. Passing average doesn't count at all. Passing yards are typically worth just 1 point per 20, so the difference between throwing for 300 yards and throwing for 240 is exactly the same as the difference between winning a game and not winning it; most points games award individual players 3 points per team win.

In these games you don't need quarterbacking excellence so much as cheap quarterbacking competence -- particularly when it comes from winning teams, because those 3-per-win points add up quickly.

In Fanball's points games, this year's salary structure meshes perfectly with what I just wrote. There are a bunch of very expensive QBs who aren't always going to be worth their salaries (I happen to own Brady ($5320) and Roethlisberger ($5130), two of the cheaper options among them), but then there's a glut of very capable players lumped together about two million salary dollars lower.

With Rodgers ($3750), Palmer ($3540), Ryan ($3510), Flacco ($3460), Favre ($3420), Orton ($3390) and even Matt Schaub ($3440) so tightly bunched, there's no need to stretch for any QB. Certainly not Brees ($6440) or Manning ($6000) -- I'll spend the salary difference at RB and WR all day, even if my two favorite cheapos, Steve Smith and Mike Sims-Walker, both had enormous games on Sunday.

I'm not bragging, kids, but last week was a good week. This column had things right, so I did. My team in the $50K points game was 1st overall for the week and shot to 1st overall for the young season, too.

Let's keep it going.

• Comments [9]

Readers' Comments

Add a Comment

Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.

To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.