Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff
Every fantasy campaign features at least one egg-sucking dog of a week. For me, that was Week 5.
It was almost inevitable. For one thing, I've staked a good part of my season on two quarterbacks in particular: Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Both were on their byes.
For another thing, I'd gotten off to a very hot start.
That last sentence means something other than it might appear to. Think about this. Hot starts for teams mean hot starts from their players. My guys have been good and in some cases great.
It's not entirely sustainable.
Chris Johnson had rushed for 434 yards through his first four games. I love the guy, but on a team that doesn't win he ain't finishing at 1,736.
Mike Sims-Walker had caught 6, 6 and 7 passes in Weeks 2-4. Love him, too, but for maybe 80 catches -- 5 a game -- and maybe fewer than that.
Those two, and others, were bound for a falloff sooner or later. Just as important, many players were bound for an upswing -- there are plenty of players around the NFL off to slow starts. At least, there were before Sunday.
Michael Turner had been on pace for about 1,200 rushing yards and 11 TDs before his Week 4 bye. Now it's 1,300 and 20.
Roddy White had been on pace for about 600 receiving yards and 5 TDs before the same bye. Now it's 1,300 and 12.
Larry Fitzgerald had scored only 2 TDs before Week 5; he scored another 2. Same for Andre Johnson.
But I don't own any of those guys. Like I said: I'd gotten off to a hot start. I wasn't waiting for many stat corrections, unless you count the kind that go the wrong way, like C.J.'s 9-for-34, or Sims-Walker's disciplinary benching, news of which broke too late for me to do anything but grouse about it. These things happen.
And the silver lining to my cloudy week?
Not every disaster is unmitigated. I'm still fine in the standings most everywhere (just not the Football Challenge, where I still need the same thing I've needed for weeks: Brees and Rodgers to play lights-out for a while), and in the meantime I've done better at saving new player purchases than in years past.
Had to burn one in the Football Challenge this week, reacquiring Knowshon Moreno after dropping him instead of Darren McFadden two weeks ago (defensible at the time but obviously a mistake), but otherwise I held steady. The plan is to have an extra purchase or two left when most of the competition is running out of them -- and to use the extras on just the right guys.
I will of course identify those "just the right guys" here as they present themselves.
For this week?
Still a few players around the league who look likely to correct their slow starts. If you're hot to burn, these seem to be the worthiest targets:
QUARTERBACK
Drew Brees, NO -- say what?; but his two bad weeks have him down at 258 yards per game -- just 10th-best in the league.
Matt Cassel, KC -- playing reasonably well (7 TDs vs. 2 INTs) despite a lousy 178 yards per game; however, his two remaining games before a Week 8 bye are at WAS and vs. SD -- both top-12 pass defenses on paper.
Jake Delhomme, CAR -- riiiiiight.
RUNNING BACK
Cedric Benson, CIN -- that's a joke, of course -- he's off to the start of his life -- but when a man goes 27-for-120 with a TD and a win at BAL, you call him by his name; mea culpa and so long, _______________.
Matt Forte, CHI and Ryan Grant, GB -- easily the best pickups for Week 6; same spot as Turner, White and Fitzgerald -- cold starts, back from their byes; even the matchups look good: Forte is at ATL (allowing 127.0 rushing yards per game, 24th in the league) and Grant is home against DET (113.4, 23rd).
Steve Slaton, HOU -- off to the coldest start of any of these RBs, and his carries are suffering with everything else; I traded for Slaton in my draft league a couple of weeks ago, but to have and to hold -- not to use just yet; I wouldn't bet on him turning things around this week (at CIN), either.
DeAngelo Williams, CAR -- at his salaries you'd prefer for Williams to show you something before you buy, but it's hard to ignore his next two matchups: at TB (152.6 rushing yards per game, 28th in the league) and vs. BUF (154.6, 29th).
WIDE RECEIVER
Anquan Boldin, ARZ -- you wonder where his mind is; on pace for 1,008 yards and 4 TDs after putting up 1,038 and 11 in just 12 games in 2008; I worry that a miserable Boldin won't make anyone happy, so I'd lean to one of the other options here.
Dwayne Bowe, KC -- started to come out of his funk in Week 5, but still a weird stat line: present pace is for just 579 yards but 10 TDs; Bowe's yards are an obvious key to Cassel's, too.
Greg Jennings, GB -- another weird line, but of course that's partly owing to his phantom game in Week 2 -- 0 catches while playing near full health.
Calvin Johnson, DET -- got a little momentum in Week 4 and lost it again in Week 5; watch his knee; if healthy, of course he'll finish with more than the 1,040 yards and 3 TDs he projects to.
Randy Moss, NE -- no trainwreck (on pace for 1,174 yards), but his average (12.2 per catch) and TDs (make that TD, singular) don't look right through five games.
Eddie Royal, DEN -- of note in the Broncos' stirring win vs. NE: Royal more than doubled his season receptions total, going 10-for-90; next up: his first TD.
Steve Smith, CAR -- OK, but his uptick is tied to Delhomme; I mentioned trading for Steve Slaton a couple of weeks ago?; the full trade was my Julius Jones and Smith for Slaton and Roddy White; I wouldn't touch Smith anywhere until he shows something -- twice.
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Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Oct. 14 at 11:07 PM
Justin: I find myself in the unenviable position of having to purchase a kicker in my points league this week. I hate using purchases on kickers, but I drafted Nugent as my bye week fill-in and he's no longer employed. I guess it would make sense to purchase Andrus, the new TB kicker and it would also give me more cap flexibility, but with my luck he'll probably miss two fg's this week and get cut. Should I take a chance on Andrus or buy Suisham or Succop, two other cheapo kickers who have favorable bye weeks? Also, which three QB's to start this week: Brady vs. TEN, A-Rod vs. DET, Schaub @ CIN, Hasselbeck or Warner (play each other). Didn't start Hass last week vs. JAX and it cost me, but I still think with O-Line situation in SEA and a D like AZ that can actually put pressure on a QB, Hass is a risk. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 15 at 08:24 AM
Exactly which Ks do you already own? As for QBs: I don't much like Hass but he's been great twice now, so maybe that's wrong. I say you use Brady and Rodgers for sure, probably with Schaub but Hass might be a coinflip. Or skip Brady if you need to load up elsewhere.
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 15 at 06:07 PM
Justin, who would you rather have for week 6, Holmes and Slaton or D. Jackson and D. Williams?
Posted by James Baker | Oct. 15 at 06:20 PM
Right now I'm going with this K REED HAUSCHKA TYNES QB BREES RODGERS BRADY RB JONES-DREW JOHNSON, C. WILLIAMS, D. FORTE RICE BENSON TE FINLEY CELEK WR SMITH, S HENRY SIMS-WALKER MOSS, R. JACKSON, D. JACKSON, V. TM MINNESOTA PHILADELPHIA BENCH K LONGWELL QB FAVRE WARNER RB SLATON PETERSON TE CLARK WR HOLMES MOORE, L MORGAN, GONZALEZ TM SAN FRANCISCO
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Oct. 15 at 10:35 PM
Justin: I own Tynes, Carpenter (bye) and Hauschka (bye-wk 7). I have started them every week and I'm currently 2nd in league in kick pts.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 16 at 06:54 AM
Peter: I wouldn't fool around then. Neither Tynes nor Hauschka, despite the fine starts, is sure to hold his job. Carpenter's safe - very accurate - but I'd add a guy who can't be replaced unless he hurts himself. If that means going up a salary level (perhaps to Longwell), so be it.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 16 at 07:00 AM
James: I have to believe DeAngelo breaks out this week ... and I also have to believe CLE will have a hard time scoring on PIT, which may mean any production Holmes gives you has to come in the first half. Of course, the same argument can be made against Jackson - but that doesn't do anything to make Slaton break out at CIN. And RBs being more important in general than WRs, I think that clinches it: Williams / Jackson.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 18 at 07:43 AM
Q: Is JaMarcus Russell the worst QB on any NFL roster? Is Jake Delhomme? A: Nope - that'd be Ryan Fitzpatrick. Let's go Bills!