Ian Allan
Below are my updated projected win-loss records for each team.
I’ve got the three teams with ties to Mannings at the top – Colts, Saints and Giants. New England currently projects to be the other AFC team with a first-round bye.
Other division winners, according to my numbers, should be the Bengals, Broncos, Vikings and 49ers. And the wild-card teams would be the Eagles, Falcons, Steelers and Jets.
Numbers are created by forecasting all 256 regular-season games. For 50-50 type games, I gave each team half of a win. If I feel a team has a 75 percent chance of winning, then I assigned it .75 worth of a win. Following that process, I get the results below.
Wins
13.8 Indianapolis
13.0 New Orleans
12.6 NY Giants
12.2 Minnesota
11.2 New England
11.0 Cincinnati
10.9 Philadelphia
10.9 Denver
10.5 Atlanta
10.4 Pittsburgh
10.3 NY Jets
10.2 Baltimore
10.2 Green Bay
9.7 Dallas
9.6 Chicago
8.7 San Diego
8.7 San Francisco
8.1 Arizona
7.8 Seattle
7.1 Jacksonville
6.5 Miami
6.0 Houston
5.5 Carolina
5.0 Tennessee
4.8 Buffalo
4.5 Washington
3.9 Cleveland
3.8 Kansas City
3.2 Detroit
3.0 Oakland
2.4 St. Louis
0.8 Tampa Bay
GAME-BY-GAME BREAKDOWNS
Arizona, week by week
loss San Francisco (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
bye week
win Houston (H)
.38 Seattle (A)
.10 NY Giants (A)
.65 Carolina (H)
.35 Chicago (A)
.65 Seattle (H)
.75 St. Louis (A)
.55 Tennessee (A)
.25 Minnesota (H)
.40 San Francisco (A)
.75 Detroit (A)
.85 St. Louis (H)
.45 Green Bay (H)
Atlanta, week by week
win Miami (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss New England (A)
bye week
win San Francisco (A)
.65 Chicago (H)
.42 Dallas (A)
.33 New Orleans (A)
.90 Washington (H)
.75 Carolina (A)
.25 NY Giants (A)
.95 Tampa Bay (H)
.50 Philadelphia (H)
.60 New Orleans (H)
.35 NY Jets (A)
.80 Buffalo (H)
.95 Tampa Bay (A)
Baltimore, week by week
win Kansas City (H)
win San Diego (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
.42 Minnesota (A)
bye week
.75 Denver (H)
.43 Cincinnati (A)
.85 Cleveland (A)
.55 Indianapolis (H)
.75 Pittsburgh (H)
.43 Green Bay (A)
.96 Detroit (H)
.75 Chicago (H)
.40 Pittsburgh (A)
.95 Oakland (A)
Buffalo, week by week
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
.20 NY Jets (A)
.33 Carolina (A)
.60 Houston (H)
bye week
.35 Tennessee (A)
.35 Jacksonville (A)
.50 Miami (H)
.45 NY Jets (H)
.40 Kansas City (A)
.20 New England (H)
.20 Atlanta (A)
.20 Indianapolis (H)
Carolina, week by week
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Dallas (A)
bye week
win Washington (H)
.85 Tampa Bay (A)
.67 Buffalo (H)
.35 Arizona (A)
.20 New Orleans (A)
.25 Atlanta (H)
.55 Miami (H)
.20 NY Jets (A)
.92 Tampa Bay (H)
.05 New England (A)
.20 Minnesota (H)
.05 NY Giants (A)
.25 New Orleans (H)
Chicago, week by week
loss Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Detroit (H)
bye week
.35 Atlanta (A)
.40 Cincinnati (A)
.90 Cleveland (H)
.65 Arizona (H)
.50 San Francisco (A)
.45 Philadelphia (H)
.30 Minnesota (A)
.90 St. Louis (H)
.55 Green Bay (H)
.25 Baltimore (A)
.55 Minnesota (H)
.75 Detroit (A)
Cincinnati, week by week
loss Denver (H)
win Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Baltimore (A)
.80 Houston (H)
.60 Chicago (H)
bye week
.57 Baltimore (H)
.37 Pittsburgh (A)
.80 Oakland (A)
.90 Cleveland (H)
.96 Detroit (H)
.32 Minnesota (A)
.42 San Diego (A)
.90 Kansas City (H)
.35 NY Jets (A)
Cleveland, week by week
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Denver (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win Buffalo (A)
.05 Pittsburgh (A)
.15 Green Bay (H)
.10 Chicago (A)
bye week
.15 Baltimore (H)
.40 Detroit (A)
.10 Cincinnati (A)
.30 San Diego (H)
.25 Pittsburgh (H)
.30 Kansas City (A)
.70 Oakland (H)
.40 Jacksonville (H)
Dallas, week by week
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Kansas City (A)
bye week
.58 Atlanta (H)
.85 Seattle (H)
.30 Philadelphia (A)
.40 Green Bay (A)
.90 Washington (H)
.97 Oakland (H)
.30 NY Giants (A)
.80 San Diego (H)
.30 New Orleans (A)
.70 Washington (A)
.60 Philadelphia (H)
Denver, week by week
win Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Oakland (A)
win Dallas (H)
win New England (H)
.40 San Diego (A)
bye week
.25 Baltimore (A)
.45 Pittsburgh (H)
.75 Washington (A)
.65 San Diego (H)
.35 NY Giants (H)
.75 Kansas City (A)
.20 Indianapolis (A)
.95 Oakland (H)
.20 Philadelphia (A)
.90 Kansas City (H)
Detroit, week by week
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
win Washington (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
.05 Green Bay (A)
bye week
.60 St. Louis (H)
.05 Seattle (A)
.05 Minnesota (A)
.60 Cleveland (H)
.20 Green Bay (H)
.04 Cincinnati (A)
.04 Baltimore (A)
.25 Arizona (H)
.08 San Francisco (A)
.25 Chicago (H)
Green Bay, week by week
win Chicago (H)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
.95 Detroit (H)
.85 Cleveland (A)
.60 Minnesota (H)
.85 Tampa Bay (A)
.60 Dallas (H)
.75 San Francisco (H)
.80 Detroit (A)
.57 Baltimore (H)
.45 Chicago (A)
.35 Pittsburgh (A)
.85 Seattle (H)
.55 Arizona (A)
Houston, week by week
loss NY Jets (H)
win Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss Arizona (A)
.20 Cincinnati (A)
.40 San Francisco (H)
.40 Buffalo (A)
.10 Indianapolis (A)
bye week
.60 Tennessee (H)
.20 Indianapolis (H)
.30 Jacksonville (A)
.55 Seattle (H)
.60 St. Louis (A)
.40 Miami (A)
.25 New England (H)
Indianapolis, week by week
win Jacksonville (H)
win Miami (A)
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
win Tennessee (A)
bye week
.95 St. Louis (A)
.85 San Francisco (H)
.90 Houston (H)
.70 New England (H)
.45 Baltimore (A)
.80 Houston (A)
.95 Tennessee (H)
.80 Denver (H)
.75 Jacksonville (A)
.85 NY Jets (H)
.80 Buffalo (A)
Jacksonville, week by week
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Arizona (H)
win Houston (A)
win Tennessee (H)
loss Seattle (A)
.80 St. Louis (H)
bye week
.30 Tennessee (A)
.75 Kansas City (H)
.15 NY Jets (A)
.65 Buffalo (H)
.25 San Francisco (A)
.70 Houston (H)
.57 Miami (H)
.25 Indianapolis (H)
.05 New England (A)
.60 Cleveland (A)
Kansas City, week by week
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Dallas (H)
.35 Washington (A)
.45 San Diego (H)
bye week
.25 Jacksonville (A)
.55 Oakland (A)
.25 Pittsburgh (H)
.20 San Diego (A)
.25 Denver (H)
.60 Buffalo (H)
.70 Cleveland (H)
.10 Cincinnati (A)
.10 Denver (A)
Miami, week by week
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
.20 New Orleans (H)
.20 NY Jets (A)
.10 New England (A)
.90 Tampa Bay (H)
.45 Carolina (A)
.50 Buffalo (A)
.35 New England (H)
.43 Jacksonville (A)
.43 Tennessee (A)
.60 Houston (H)
.35 Pittsburgh (H)
Minnesota, week by week
win Cleveland (A)
win Detroit (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Green Bay (H)
win St. Louis (A)
.58 Baltimore (H)
.40 Pittsburgh (A)
.40 Green Bay (A)
bye week
.95 Detroit (H)
.90 Seattle (H)
.70 Chicago (H)
.75 Arizona (A)
.68 Cincinnati (H)
.80 Carolina (A)
.45 Chicago (A)
.55 NY Giants (H)
New England, week by week
win Buffalo (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Denver (A)
.85 Tennessee (H)
.95 Tampa Bay (A)
bye week
.90 Miami (H)
.30 Indianapolis (A)
.75 NY Jets (H)
.35 New Orleans (A)
.65 Miami (A)
.95 Carolina (H)
.80 Buffalo (A)
.95 Jacksonville (H)
.75 Houston (A)
New Orleans, week by week
win Detroit (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Buffalo (A)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
.55 NY Giants (H)
.80 Miami (A)
.67 Atlanta (H)
.80 Carolina (H)
.95 St. Louis (A)
.95 Tampa Bay (A)
.65 New England (H)
.85 Washington (A)
.40 Atlanta (A)
.70 Dallas (H)
.97 Tampa Bay (H)
.75 Carolina (A)
NY Giants, week by week
win Washington (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
.45 New Orleans (A)
.90 Arizona (H)
.40 Philadelphia (A)
.80 San Diego (H)
bye week
.75 Atlanta (H)
.65 Denver (A)
.70 Dallas (H)
.65 Philadelphia (H)
.85 Washington (A)
.95 Carolina (H)
.45 Minnesota (A)
NY Jets, week by week
win Houston (A)
win New England (H)
win Tennessee (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Miami (A)
.80 Buffalo (H)
.85 Oakland (A)
.80 Miami (H)
bye week
.85 Jacksonville (H)
.25 New England (A)
.80 Carolina (H)
.55 Buffalo (A)
.93 Tampa Bay (A)
.65 Atlanta (H)
.15 Indianapolis (A)
.65 Cincinnati (H)
Oakland, week by week
loss San Diego (H)
win Kansas City (A)
loss Denver (H)
loss Houston (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
.10 Philadelphia (H)
.15 NY Jets (H)
.05 San Diego (A)
bye week
.45 Kansas City (H)
.20 Cincinnati (H)
.03 Dallas (A)
.03 Pittsburgh (A)
.60 Washington (H)
.05 Denver (A)
.30 Cleveland (A)
.05 Baltimore (H)
Philadelphia, week by week
win Carolina (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
win Kansas City (H)
bye week
win Tampa Bay (H)
.90 Oakland (A)
.80 Washington (A)
.60 NY Giants (H)
.70 Dallas (H)
.55 San Diego (A)
.55 Chicago (A)
.90 Washington (H)
.50 Atlanta (A)
.35 NY Giants (A)
.85 San Francisco (H)
.80 Denver (H)
.40 Dallas (A)
Pittsburgh, week by week
win Tennessee (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win San Diego (H)
win Detroit (A)
.95 Cleveland (H)
.60 Minnesota (H)
bye week
.55 Denver (A)
.63 Cincinnati (H)
.75 Kansas City (A)
.25 Baltimore (A)
.97 Oakland (H)
.75 Cleveland (A)
.65 Green Bay (H)
.60 Baltimore (H)
.65 Miami (A)
San Diego, week by week
win Oakland (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
win Miami (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
bye week
.60 Denver (H)
.55 Kansas City (A)
.95 Oakland (H)
.20 NY Giants (A)
.45 Philadelphia (H)
.35 Denver (A)
.80 Kansas City (H)
.70 Cleveland (A)
.20 Dallas (A)
.58 Cincinnati (H)
.40 Tennessee (A)
.90 Washington (H)
San Francisco, week by week
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Atlanta (H)
bye week
.60 Houston (A)
.15 Indianapolis (A)
.65 Tennessee (H)
.50 Chicago (H)
.25 Green Bay (A)
.75 Jacksonville (H)
.30 Seattle (A)
.60 Arizona (H)
.15 Philadelphia (A)
.92 Detroit (H)
.80 St. Louis (A)
Seattle, week by week
win St. Louis (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Chicago (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
.62 Arizona (H)
bye week
.15 Dallas (A)
.95 Detroit (H)
.35 Arizona (A)
.10 Minnesota (A)
.70 St. Louis (A)
.70 San Francisco (H)
.45 Houston (A)
.95 Tampa Bay (H)
.15 Green Bay (A)
.70 Tennessee (H)
St. Louis, week by week
loss Seattle (A)
loss Washington (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
.20 Jacksonville (A)
.05 Indianapolis (H)
.40 Detroit (A)
bye week
.05 New Orleans (H)
.25 Arizona (H)
.30 Seattle (H)
.10 Chicago (A)
.25 Tennessee (A)
.40 Houston (H)
.15 Arizona (A)
.20 San Francisco (H)
Tampa Bay, week by week
loss Dallas (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
.15 Carolina (H)
.05 New England (H)
bye week
.15 Green Bay (H)
.10 Miami (A)
.05 New Orleans (H)
.05 Atlanta (A)
.08 Carolina (A)
.07 NY Jets (H)
.05 Seattle (A)
.03 New Orleans (A)
.05 Atlanta (H)
Tennessee, week by week
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Houston (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
.15 New England (A)
bye week
.70 Jacksonville (H)
.35 San Francisco (A)
.65 Buffalo (H)
.40 Houston (A)
.45 Arizona (H)
.05 Indianapolis (A)
.75 St. Louis (H)
.57 Miami (H)
.60 San Diego (H)
.30 Seattle (A)
Washington, week by week
loss NY Giants (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Detroit (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Carolina (A)
.65 Kansas City (H)
.20 Philadelphia (H)
bye week
.10 Atlanta (A)
.25 Denver (H)
.10 Dallas (A)
.10 Philadelphia (A)
.15 New Orleans (H)
.40 Oakland (A)
.15 NY Giants (H)
.30 Dallas (H)
.10 San Diego (A)
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