Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff
It isn’t a strong preference, but if pressed I’d say I like Fanball’s Football Challenge better than any other challenge game. The reason is simple: Unlike in points games, here the game changes as the season wears on.
In points games you fall behind by a few and there’s zero subtlety to catching up. Just score more points, at any position at all, than the teams in front of you. Owning the right quarterbacks OR running backs OR wide receivers OR tight ends OR kickers OR defenses, OR any combination of the foregoing, can do the trick. They might as well all be the same position.
In the Football Challenge, though (and all categories games), by now you have strong positions and weak ones. Maybe you’re great in the passing categories, not so great in the rushing ones. Maybe it’s the other way around.
And the key to catching up?
It comes in two steps. The second is to own and use players who’ll be better than those on the teams ahead of you. The first is to know where you really need to own and use those better players.
By now most challenge teams have a similar core of cheapos – so I’m not talking about them. We all own Lawrence Tynes (he appears on 75.0 percent of all Football Challenge rosters) and Ray Rice (74.6 percent) and DeSean Jackson (60.3 percent), and you can’t go wrong with the Giants’ Steve Smith (52.4 percent) or a handful of others, either. But those players become increasingly irrelevant as the season progresses. More and more owners add them; the more teams own a given player, the more the challenge becomes about every other player instead of that one.
So you have six weeks’ worth of stats, you’re behind in a few categories, and you’re trying to decide how best to spend the salary that isn’t tied up in Tynes and the other everyone-owns-them players.
Before you burn any more purchases, decide what level you’re trying to compete at.
My league in the Football Challenge is very tightly bunched at the top – six teams within 9.0 league points of 1st place, with the standings shuffling every week. My team sits 5th in league, 30th in division, 284th overall – not where I wanted to be, and not nearly where I am in other games, but solid enough. I still have a chance at finishing high up in the overall standings, but that’s more aspiration than immediate concern for the time being. With the league so tight, the best place to focus my attention is the division level.
At whichever level you choose, examine your category-by-category points totals and decide what your weakest numbers really are.
These are the categories I need to improve: rushing average, total scoring, passing yards and receiving yards, in that order. But some of those should take care of themselves.
Total scoring’s kind of a fluky thing – Matt Forte and Greg Jennings have just 1 TD each at the moment; I’m sure they have bigger numbers coming, and meanwhile Maurice Jones-Drew – on 52.8 percent of all teams but not mine – will not rush for the 21 scores he projects to. As the chasm between Forte and J-D becomes more of a crack, and as Jennings gains on Larry Fitzgerald (5 TDs) and Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson and Roddy White (4 each), I’ll see a bump in scoring even if I do nothing differently.
As for passing yards, as detailed here in recent weeks, I’ve already made my decisions: it’s Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers at QB for me the rest of the way, and I would’ve started to catch up in Week 6 – I had those two with Brady (!) – except that nearly every QB in the league threw for 300-plus yards. Not worried there.
And my receiving yards would be fine but for two weird oh-fors, Jennings being shut out in Week 2 and Mike Sims-Walker being shut down in Week 5.
So the real concern is my weakest category: rushing average. I’ll tell you what I plan to do about it in just a moment, but, again, this part of the analysis you’ll have to do for yourself:
Where are you in the standings?
At which level – league, division or overall – are you trying to compete?
What are your weak categories at that level?
Which ones are real problems and which ones should (eventually, with luck) fix themselves?
Of course, that last one is something of a guessing game. None of us knows for certain which players’ cold starts will turn around and which won’t. But even if you guess wrong – if you keep using Jennings, say, and he doesn’t outscore Fitzgerald or Wayne or Johnson or White the rest of the way – doing nothing still saves a purchase, and we’ve discussed repeatedly how important that can be. Your default move should be no move. Only try to correct the problems you’re sure you have.
On rushing average, I’m looking at two numbers in particular at the moment – and the individual RBs’ averages are only one of them.
The other is the yards-per-attempt allowed by all defenses so far this season. Nine teams are at 4.5 or higher:
BUF – 5.3
CAR – 5.0
HOU – 4.9
CLE – 4.9
TB – 4.9
ATL – 4.7
NE – 4.7
DET – 4.6
KC – 4.5
Working down the list, and figuring it’ll take me at least half as long to fix what’s broken as it took to break it in the first place, here are the teams with the most favorable schedules for the next three weeks:
BUF – at CAR, vs. HOU, bye
GB – at CLE, vs. MIN, at TB
NO – at MIA, vs. ATL, vs. CAR
So that makes it easy enough. I won’t touch Marshawn Lynch (3.0 yards per carry) or Fred Jackson (4.2) in BUF; I already own Ryan Grant (3.8) in GB; I don’t own Pierre Thomas (5.9) in NO. Thomas isn’t expensive, and he’s just 19.8 percent owned across the Football Challenge. Add him, hope Felix Jones (10.1) comes back at full strength (and speed), and I’m in business.
Every team has a different mix of problems, but the way to solve them all is the same. Be careful with your buys, but not so careful that you let a real weakness fester. Still eleven weeks left in the season – plenty of time to fix what’s gone wrong in the first six.
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Posted by Carlos Jackson | Oct. 21 at 02:15 PM
Hey Justin, I have been reading your challenge contest page for a long time and I have enjoy reading them. It is about time somebody that have had good teams in this contest is not scared of sharing his ideals to the world. On the challenge froum the guys think if they give away there little secrets it will be the end of the world. I am glad you don't have that problem. Now for my problem. I am in lg 29. I am in seventh place in the lg. #50 in Div. and #527 Oa. My name is Fuzzy Wuzzy ( don't ask). My worst caps is rushing yds. I have m.tunner,c.johnson, AP, m.forte, mjd, c.benson, r.rice, a.bradshaw, j.jones, and r.grant. You can see I have 4 of them on byes this week. I was thinking about Mendenhall for salary cap and drop either forte or j.jones but I don't know. Can you help me out on what I can do here remember I need rushing yds. If you don't mind you can look at my team to see more if you need to thank you.
Posted by KEVIN DALLAS | Oct. 21 at 06:57 PM
Hey Justin, somehow I am tied for 1st in my league, in 32nd in my division, and in 482nd overall. I know you have been trying to convince me to pick up Rodgers pretty much since the beginning, but right now I carry 6 QBs and three of them bye week 8. I think it will be smart to wait until after week 8 to make a move at QB. The passing categories are my worst, but not by much. Next is a tie between total scoring and receiving yards. My best category is rushing avg. Do I still pick up Pierre Thomas or rest on my laurels with the rushing categories? Should I use the TD only cheat sheet to shore up my scoring? Right now I have the most purchases in my league save the teams at the very bottom of my league.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 21 at 09:50 PM
Carlos: Welcome to our little club. One thing you'll know if you've read these columns AND the comments that follow is that as soon as I do give particular advice to any of my readers, the advice blows up. It's probably my fault that Sims-Walker's date ran a little long a couple of Fridays ago and he got pulled for Week 5 - I did that, I'm sure, by touting him here. So take the following advice with a whole pillar of salt, and at least consider ignoring it altogether: I see two real trouble spots for your team at the league level, because your weakest numbers are related: rushing yards and receiving average. You'll need to add bulk yards from your RBs without adding a bunch of catches, because RBs' catches tend to drag heavily on receiving average. In that respect Mendenhall looks OK, because he's only pulling in two catches a week and can't really wreck your average with those. But my obvious concern there is that he doesn't have the whole job ... yet. He's ahead of Willie Parker on the depth chart, and deservedly so, but Mendenhall has the same O-line in front of him and this is, let's not forget, Rashard Mendenhall we're talking about. A month ago you wouldn't have wanted Mendenhall even if Parker had two broken legs. Keep reading; not sure how much I can type in these boxes without getting cut off ...
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 21 at 10:06 PM
So, then, which bulk-yards RBs will do the most good AND the least harm to your receiving average, AND don't have byes right now? The best immediate (Week 7 only) pickup is probably DeAngelo Williams, home against BUF, even without the whole job. Jake Delhomme is so bad right now that CAR will keep the ball on the ground against any team it might possibly beat that way, and my Bills certainly qualify. Of course, CAR plays at ARZ in Week 8, at NO in Week 9, vs. ATL in Week 10 - all big-time or semi-big-time passing offenses, so Williams may fall back off the table. The one other player I've never hyped here but really like right now is Ronnie Brown; just don't think that rushing game can be stopped for the time being. But that doesn't work for Week 7 - home vs. NO, which means (likely) down big in the second half, which means the run becomes an afterthought and bulk yards do not follow. Bottom line: You can't get this problem solved this week. My best advice would probably be to start the six guys you have who aren't on byes (only Peterson makes me really nervous matchupswise, but he's Adrian Peterson; Bradshaw has a tough draw vs. ARZ but can hit his home runs against any D), hope for the best and then look ahead to Week 8, when your options expand. Whenever you drop an RB, by the way, it should be J.Jones, easily your least talented RB and stuck behind a dreadful line at that, and as such the guy least likely to do much of anything that helps you. Last thing: Dude, there's a reason I'm not afraid to share my secrets here. They work long-term, season-to-season, as I think my track record bears out. But week-to-week? I seem to be sinking the competition with advice that goes south. Again, a PILLAR of salt. I'll try never to lead you astray, but that doesn't mean it can't happen ...
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 21 at 10:23 PM
Kevin: 1st in league with (essentially) the most purchases remaining is very good; don't squander either part of that. No need for Thomas, as I'm really only looking to him to fix a problem you don't seem to have. As for total scoring, I dunno, I think it's kind of a crapshoot. A guy who breaks a 20-yard run and gets tackled at the 3 often cedes the last few carries to a less-talented back with regular goal-line duties. The best receivers get tag-team coverage in the red zone. QBs happen to sneak a couple of balls in themselves and shake up whole leagues in the scoring category. I try not to worry about it too much week-to-week; usually that problem seems to solve itself. So it's really down to whether you need a QB or not, and maybe you don't in Week 7 (and maybe you don't at all), but it seems to me one part of your thinking is backwards. Three of six QBs with Week 8 byes, so wait till AFTER Week 8 to make the move? Erm, isn't Week 8 itself when you're most likely to need a new QB? Put it this way: As I recall, your three Week 8 byes are Brady, Roethlisberger and Palmer, right? Which leaves Brees, Flacco and Orton you'd be forced to start. Brees - OK, you'll have my blessing every week. But Flacco and Orton play against each other in a game that may come down to defense, no? Might go the other way, I suppose, but think: If there's a QB you'd rather have than Orton at BAL in Week 8, or Flacco vs. DEN in Week 8, there's really only one question left - would you start that same QB if you owned him right now, in Week 7? If so, pull the trigger, buy him now, use him this week and unless he hurts himself it's mission accomplished for Week 8, too. Otherwise I say you just hold steady at QB. After Week 8 you'd have six QBs ALL WITH THEIR BYES BEHIND THEM, and there's no need for a move after that - plenty of matchups to play the rest of the year.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Oct. 25 at 05:54 AM
Justin: I have to decide on one of the following combinations to start in a points league this week: 1. Fitz, Hester and Jets D. 2. V. Jackson, Colston and 49ers D. I'm also starting Moss, An. Johnson, R. White and D. Jackson at WR. I was leaning toward # 2 all week but with Boldin out or limited, Fitz could put up monster numbers vs. NYG and I think Hester also has a plus matchup this week vs. CIN which gives up a lot of big plays. As for the D's, I think the Jets win and 49ers lose which is the criteria I normally use to decide starting D's. Any input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Oct. 25 at 08:57 AM
I go with group 2. Don't think Boldin affects Fitz at all; Fitz is clearly the first option on nearly every play already - Warner can't possibly look for him any more than he does. Like Colston and V.Jackson as much as Fitz this week, and I'll never go out of my way to spend on a defense ...