Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

In fantasy football there’s luck and there’s dumb luck. And then there’s what Homer Simpson would call stupid luck.

I didn’t look at my own lineups for Week 7 until after I’d counseled one of you to drop Carson Palmer -- so naturally it turned out that I had to start Palmer on my own Football Challenge team. I needed a cheap QB instead of Drew Brees in MIA; didn’t hate Brees’ matchup, but I needed extra salary for my running backs. With Joe Flacco on his bye, Palmer was the only option.

Dumb luck is Palmer averaging 9.7 yards per attempt (to bring his season number to a still-lowly 7.1) and tossing 5 TDs.

OK, but because I had to use Palmer instead of the idle Flacco, I had to trim just enough salary at receiver to downgrade to Devin Hester ... from DeSean Jackson.

Stupid, stupid luck is Jackson rushing for a 67-yard TD, then adding a 57-yard TD catch for good measure.

That happened Monday. Through Sunday I’d gotten my FC team up to 2nd-10th-123rd in the standings. Through Monday -- really, through Jackson -- it’s back to 3rd-21st-241st.

Maybe I’m doing something obviously wrong here, but I don’t think so. Just luck. There’s a lot more of it in these games than we’d ideally hope for -- probably a lot more than we’d usually like to admit. Spend as many hours as you like putting a team together in the preseason, as many hours as you like deciding which guys to start and which to taxi come Week 7 or Week 8 -- there are only so many aspects of human performance on a football field that can be predicted.

So don’t beat yourself up too much when a decision doesn’t work out. Focus on always making the right decisions for your teams before luck comes into play. Do what we’ve talked about: use purchases sparingly; fix holes that need fixing but trust that the ones you think will fix themselves indeed will; by all means, start your running backs against the league’s worst rush defenses.

The fact that some of your decisions won’t happen to translate into results doesn’t necessarily mean they weren’t the right decisions when you made them. I have to believe that if you just keep plugging away, making sure you always have good reasons for any start-or-sit or burn-or-don’t-burn decision, eventually the results will come.

So, then, Week 8. Luck aside, controlling what we possibly can, here’s how I see it:

QB

With Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger (and the resurgent (?) Palmer) on their byes, and with two of the best cheapos (Flacco and Kyle Orton) facing tough matchups as their teams square off against each other, this is the week when the highest-dollar QBs can really earn their pay. My money remains on Drew Brees (vs. ATL) instead of Peyton Manning (vs. SF), but I’d rather have either guy than neither in Week 8.

I do like Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIN), but I know at least one of you who needed a QB has already opted for Jay Cutler (vs. CLE) instead, and I can’t say that’s wrong. Also wouldn’t mind having Matt Ryan (at NO), in a game in which the Falcons are sure to be passing late into the second half.

RB

Went ahead and bought Pierre Thomas as a Week 7 bye filler, even though the weeks I really wanted him were this one (vs. ATL) and next (vs. CAR). Yes, it makes me nervous that he only carried 8 times in Miami, but Thomas is the horse I’ve chosen to ride, and it isn’t such a great week for other horses, anyway. The best matchups go to:

• Steve Slaton (at BUF), who still hasn’t gotten untracked as a rusher, with 76 yards back in Week 3 his YTD high;
• Matt Forte (vs. CLE), who hasn’t gotten untracked either, but had a good game in comparable circumstances (vs. DET) in Week 4
• the Chargers (vs. OAK), but LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t bad enough to cede the job to Darren Sproles, and Sproles wasn’t good when Tomlinson missed Weeks 2 and 3; and
• the Raiders (at SD), Lions (vs. STL) and Cardinals (vs. CAR), but none of them can run against anyone -- Detroit is the best of the three at 99.0 yards per game, 21st in the league.

So, right, Thomas for me. And I’ll use Forte, too, but I wouldn’t make any purchases here this week.

WR

With the emergence of several useful cheapos this year -- and not just the Giants’ Steve Smith and Mario Manningham and the Jags’ Mike Sims-Walker, either; Miles Austin sure looks legit -- you’re probably getting close to starting the same six WRs every week. For what it’s worth, I like S-W’s game (at TEN), and Austin’s (vs. SEA), a lot better than the two Giants’ (at PHI).

After the cheapos, use whichever studs you own and can afford. If there’s one key position where you have to trust that luck will come your way in time, this is it; matchups just don’t work the same way here as at QB or RB.

Also: Don’t sit DeSean Jackson. Like, ever.

TE, K and DEF

I won’t deign to give you week-to-week tight end, kicker or defense advice, as I tend to think the matchups mean almost nothing at these positions. That might not ordinarily be true at DEF, but I never own an expensive (and thus reliably good) unit, so I can never count on big scores even when my defenses go against league-worst offenses. When they come at all, my defensive points come from return TDs. Week-to-week, those are nearly impossible to predict.

Actually, my whole approach to picking defenses stems from my view of the role of luck in these challenges. I tank DEF every season, picking the lowest-priced units that might be minimally effective, in favor of spending bigger salary dollars at positions where I really believe that (a) luck comes into play less often; and (b) any superior skill I have at reading matchups and/or picking players in general therefore stands to do me more good.

None of which is why I decided to write this section in the first place. Rather, the one tip I meant to give you at TE / K / DEF was this:

There are only three more weeks of byes -- so we’re getting to where you won’t need to use any roster slots solely for bye coverage. If you don’t know which player to drop when you make a new purchase now, it’s OK to think about dropping your reserve TEs, Ks and DEFs.

Say you own Dallas Clark (Week 6 bye), Brent Celek (Week 4) and Jermichael Finley (Week 5) as your three TEs in a given game, as I do in the $50K points game. By now the only risk in dropping one of them is that one of the others will subsequently hurt himself. It’s never ideal to go naked (i.e., without a backup) at any position, but doing so at TE beats having to drop a healthy player at a position like RB, who might let you play a couple of extra matchups down the road.

That said, it’s probably wisest to drop a backup DEF before a TE or K, because it isn’t really possible for your remaining DEFs to get hurt. Individual defensive players drop like flies, sure, but some 11 of them will take the field every week.

I’d like to make this column more interactive in weeks to come, but that’s going to require some help from you guys. If there’s a general topic you’d like me to cover in a future column, by all means, say so in the comments section below. If there are questions you want answered about your individual teams, drop those into the comments, too. I may not get to everything, but I’ll try, and even the most particular team questions could wind up being instructive to many challenge players.

Hey, but when you do send a question, and I get the answer wrong?

Don’t blame me.

Stupid @#$%! luck.

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