Viva Murillo!
In the NFL, streaks are hard to break. But in fantasy football there are no true streaks. The Saints find a way to win partially because they pretty much expect to win. They don't get down after falling behind (again) and figure they can come back (again).
Losing is the same way. Was anyone surprised that the Seahawks came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Lions? I doubt even the Lions were surprised. They're a bad team and they know it. They don't expect to win and I think it shows.
Even the Titans -- the same Titans who were embarrassed college football-style against the Patriots -- have won two straight with Vince Young. It's not going to propel them back into the playoffs, but it does mean something. The Bills are going to face a confident team this coming weekend. Even a two-game win streak will do that for professionals.
In your league you might be experiencing a "streak" of your own, but I advise you to ignore it. If you're losing close games, don't think you have to make wholesale changes. If the team is sound, it will work itself out (to the extent you can control your lineup. Luck does the rest). Remember, your players don't know they're on a losing streak. You don't have to keep spirits up and you don't have to fight a losing mentality in the locker room.
If you've lost three in a row it can be frustrating, but all it means is when you compared your lineup's statistics with a randomly-decided opponent's statistics, the other team's numbers were better three straight times. You didn't play poor defense, you didn't give up a late score (like the Giants, who are stuck in a streak of their own) and you didn't make mental errors to cost your team the game. There is no "team." It's just a hypothetical roster of guys who don't even know they're playing together. I realize this isn't news, but when you're watching a playoff spot slip away you might need a reminder that the only one who thinks it's a "losing streak" is you. They're the same players who will go out next week and perform in their own game. They don't know about that "streak" and won't choke as a result of the pressure to perform for your team. That's a big advantage you have over NFL coaches. The key is, with five games left in most regular seasons, don't overreact if your good team is coming up short each week. If the team is weak, that's one thing. But don't dismantle a good roster because the schedule has been cruel these past few games. Let it play out. There are no streaks in fantasy football.
That holds true for winning streaks as well. It's great if you have a nice lead in your division and a playoff spot is all but guaranteed. But you could lose the next five just as easily as you won the last four. You don't benefit from a sense of confidence that a real winning streak provides. Your team won't have extra enthusiasm to keep the "streak" alive. You just matched up well against one other team a few weeks in a row. It's good, but don't read too much into it. You don't have any momentum, and you'd better be looking to improve your team right up until the trading deadline.
A brief story: I once won 10 straight regular season games in a league. I was the top seed and was feeling pretty great about my team. I wanted to improve it ... but I really just wanted to keep looking at that "W-10" column on the standings page. I had never seen it before. Double digit wins: Yes, I was pretty awesome. At least, I was until I got bounced on my ear in the first round of the playoffs.
The funny part is that my team performed pretty much as it always had. I didn't have a Tom Brady 2007-type meltdown during the fantasy playoffs. But, on that week, the statistics from my team weren't as good as the other hypothetical team to which I was compared. I lost and that was that. My players didn't care, they weren't disappointed and they gave no extra effort to keep "the streak" alive. It meant absolutely nothing ... because it didn't really exist. That worked to my disadvantage because I was paying attention to it, but you can use it to your benefit. Don't overreact to close losses and don't sit around admiring your nice "streak" if you're winning. Just look at the next game, forget about any string of wins or losses and try to improve your team. If that reminder helps prevent overreactions or overconfidence, you're already ahead of many other owners in your position. Good luck this week.
You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.
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