Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

Over the last few weeks I've used much of this space to discuss players whose numbers should get better as the NFL season wears on. But we're halfway through that season now, and it's every bit as important to think in terms of which players' numbers should get worse.

4,716 yards passing; 8.1 yards per pass; 30 TDs.

1,474 yards rushing; 5.1 yards per rush; 22 TDs.

1,444 yards receiving; 17.2 yards per reception; 14 TDs.

Those are the projected full-season numbers for Matt Schaub, Maurice Jones-Drew and Vincent Jackson, respectively. To each of whom I say, Good stinkin' luck.

So this is my doom-and-gloom column. I don't expect Schaub to go over 4,500 yards, J-D to go over 20 TDs, V-Jax to finish with any of the numbers he projects to. They're all good, but each is up against a different limiting factor that hasn't yet shown itself fully.

Jackson's teammates are better now than they were nine weeks ago, and some of his numbers will slide their way. Antonio Gates is already having a fine season in terms of receiving yards, but he's certain to finish with more than the 4 TDs he projects to -- and the bigger difference is that Malcom Floyd has finally displaced Chris Chambers. Floyd has both the speed and the height to take numbers away from Jackson; he'll get a few of the long balls that have boosted Jackson's average, and he'll score a few TDs. I'm not saying Jackson is finished producing, or anywhere near finished. But I am saying that inking his name into your lineups and expecting the same production you've gotten so far is a mistake.

Jones-Drew's teammates are the same -- which means defenses will increasingly slide extra men into the box to slow him down. David Garrard has quietly had an OK season, and Mike Sims-Walker has broken out as far as could have been imagined, but those two alone aren't enough to keep defenses entirely honest -- and they are alone, kind of. Torry Holt is a shadow of his former self. J-D is the team's third-leading pass-catcher.

Kansas City's rush defense has been garbage in 2009, but it just held J-D to 97 yards on a staggering 29 carries. 3.3 average, long of 10 yards. And half of the Jags' last eight games are against teams with strong rush defenses (at SF, vs. MIA) or offenses that should score enough to make J-D an afterthought (vs. IND, at NE). Again, simply doubling the numbers he's put up so far doesn't work.

And Schaub?

Is it too much to say I don't believe the guy is this good?

Much of what Schaub has done thus far is attributable to the weakness of the Texans' D. He's been involved in shootouts with Tennessee (he finished with 357 yards passing) and Jacksonville (300 yards), and he played from way behind against Arizona (371 yards). Dude has attempted 39 or more passes in four different games already; that kind of workload will always boost a QB's bulk numbers.

But check the remaining schedule. The law of averages says the Texans' second games with TEN and JAX will be tamer than the first ones were. Plus they have games remaining vs. SEA and at STL -- at least one of which they should shut down completely, meaning that Schaub may not get more than 25 pass attempts. Plus they have a second game against IND and a first one against NE -- both top-10 passing Ds.

Combine that schedule with my general lack of faith in Schaub and I will be flabbergasted -- a word I haven't used since the 1930s -- if he continues at his present pace.

Who else is due to tail off?

QB

Ben Roethlisberger -- I said last year and again this preseason that the Steelers were set to become a pass-first team, and they have. But (a) that's been more of necessity than by choice, as I'm certain Mike Tomlin would prefer to run more effectively than they have for the past two seasons; and (b) even on a pass-first team, Big Ben's 287 yards per game are a little much. Rashard Mendenhall's unexpected emergence means somewhere between 230 and 260 per game is more like it; split the difference and call it 245 going forward.

Otherwise the position appears fairly solid. I'll keep my fingers crossed and my tongue bitten about Joe Flacco this week -- need him to play well in Cleveland on Monday.

RB

Steven Jackson -- Which full-season projection looks closer to right to you: 1,568 yards ... or 2 TDs? One thing we know without question is that Jackson won't get a ton of second-half carries in his next two games, vs. the Saints and the finding-their-groove Cardinals.

Chris Johnson -- I would say he can't possibly keep it up on a team that doesn't win, but they're winning now. Besides, you know how I feel about C.J. at this point. This weekend (vs. my Bills) should be bloody.

Thomas Jones -- An awesome O-line and perhaps the league's most obvious run-first mindset for the rest of the season -- but Jones has gotten his pace up to 1,408 yards and 14 TDs by assuming an unsustainable workload: 22, then 26, then 27 carries in Weeks 6-8. He should be rested after his Week 9 bye, and I expect him to keep up the pace through Weeks 13 (at BUF) and 14 (at TB) before hitting a wall. Might be a good time to trade him away in your office league.

Ray Rice -- What I'm about to write actually makes Rice more attractive in categories games, but it hurts him in points: I can't imagine the guy will finish with either the 92 receptions or the 872 receiving yards he projects to. 80, maybe. 700, sure. But it's gotten ridiculous over the last four games, when he's combined for 30 catches and 302 yards. In a PPR league that's terrific. In points it's terrific. In categories he's hell on your receiving average right now. But not much longer -- at least, not to the same extent.

WR

Steve Smith (NYG) -- I can't remember a team that needed its bye week quite like these Giants need this one. I suspect they're about to blow up the offense and commit fully to Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs has a spotty-at-best injury history, and Bradshaw is already gimpy, but at this point the alternative is missing the playoffs. Smith should continue to be the Giant with the best receiving numbers -- but he's also the one with the most numbers to lose.

Hines Ward -- If Big Ben's numbers drop, so too will at least one of his receivers' numbers -- and this is the one. You can already see it happening, actually; Ward's 646 receiving yards include just 47 in his last two games (albeit with Monday night's 2 TDs). Meanwhile Santonio Holmes' 590 receiving yards include 152 in the same two games.

Wes Welker -- Welker's numbers don't look outlandish, but remember that he sat in Weeks 2 and 3. Otherwise his pace would be for 1,515 yards and 11 TDs -- and I wouldn't expect him to hit either number.

TE

Owen Daniels -- Verrrrrry funny, Justin. But ESPN.com does still have the IR'ed Daniels projected to 923 yards and 9 TDs.

Vernon Davis -- The 49ers project to throw a total of 22 touchdown passes in 2009, and Davis projects to catch 14 of them. Won't happen.

K

Steven Hauschka -- Did I say I would bite my tongue about Joe Flacco this week?

Matt Prater -- Sure looks to me like the Broncos' O is in trouble. Knowshon Moreno blew a blitz pickup in particularly egregious fashion on Monday, and he finished with just 5 carries. Correll Buckhalter got 9 carries and turned them into 24 yards. If this team can't run it will depend far too heavily on Kyle Orton, and I really believe that if Moreno can't be trusted as a blocker -- and thus can't stay on the field -- this team can't run. Combine that with Prater's nagging inaccuracy and you have a recipe for failure.

Lawrence Tynes -- Could go either way. If the Giants do rededicate themselves to running the ball, that could make them exactly the kind of functional-but-not-too-functional offense that yields lots of FG tries. But it can only work if Jacobs and/or Bradshaw can take the field, so ...

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