24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson
Posted Nov. 13 at 07:44 PM
Thursday games have started, which means one less game to preview each week (although the byes are almost over, so it's a trade-off). I know I'm in the minority, but I kind of hate the Thursday games. On the one hand, it's nice to have an extra night of football. That's the good part of it all. But hear me out.
The games are often terrible -- either one team or both teams seem affected by the short week -- and it forces me to think about lineups the same day my waivers run in some leagues. And Thursday is a key night for catching up on TiVo backlog: Top Chef, Flash Forward, and those sneaky aliens over on "V." And besides which, this week I've got three extra days to stare at the four-tenths of a point I got from Jay Cutler! OK, on to the games....
Jaguars at Jets: Every year I like to go to one game in person, just to remind myself what exactly it is that I spend my life obsessed with. (That's right, eight dollar draft beer.) I picked this one because the tickets were easier to get than for the Patriots and Dolphins, and cheaper, and because Maurice Jones-Drew is awesome. And because there's a decent chance we'll see a lot of points and a Jets win. Anyway, Jets are coming off a bye so no injuries of notes, and the Jaguars only have a couple of usable players anyway. Good matchup for Jets passing game, although they'll still probably try to run a lot, and the Jaguars' running game (which is their offense).
Buccaneers at Dolphins: I"m always intrigued by matchups between young quarterbacks, wondering if a decade from now these guys will be the next Elway and Marino, or Manning and Brady, matching up in epic battles. These team will of course only play once every four years, so it doesn't really apply, but I do wonder about Chad Henne (who I liked coming out of school) and Josh Freeman (who I didn't). As for this week, I'm considering Tampa Bay's game last week an aberration facing an overconfident Green Bay team. I don't think they'll move the ball on Miami's defense, and I'm confident Miami will run the ball about 35-40 times (unlike Green Bay last week). Good situation for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams; not so much for anyone else. Antonio Bryant is likely out.
Bengals at Steelers: Tough not to be impressed by what both defenses did last week, Cincinnati shutting out the Ravens for most of the game, the Steelers doing essentially the same thing to Denver. But based on that, you get the feeling there might not be a ton of offense in this game. No injuries of note, apart from Chris Henry being out for the year and stuff. You probably heard about Ochocinco being fined for his fake bribe of an official. Keep on keeping on, Ochocinco. I realize professional sports are and have to be very vigilant and aggressive when it comes to any indications of gambling impropriety and stuff, but come. on. Being anti-gambling doesn't mean you can't have a sense of humor. But in the No Fun League, I guess it does.
Bills at Titans: Who doesn't think of the Music City Miracle when these teams get together? As a New Englander, of course I also think of this being the game when Wade Phillips benched Doug Flutie for Rob Johnson. Now granted, the Bills would have won but for the miracle return, but Johnson didn't play particularly well, and Flutie was the right choice there. And it's for that reason I expect Phillips to botch up any Cowboys' postseason run. Anyhoo, Chris Johnson faces the league's worst run defense, and that's pretty much the story of the game. Justin Gage won't play because he injured his back on that amazing catch last week, and Terrell Owens will probably play after injuring his hip.....wait for it....wait for it.....falling asleep on his couch. But check those Sunday morning inactives to make sure. And I have to start Marshawn Lynch in a league where I think all of my matchups are bad, and my quarterback was Jay Cutler. Don't look now but the Titans might finish 8-8 after starting out 0-6.
Lions at Vikings: First suicide pool mention. I didn't take it just because the Lions have been competitive in these games the last two years, and I'm expecting Minnesota to come up with a real dog of a game at some point, and maybe this will be it. I consider it a good matchup for everyone on the Vikings, and one with potential for Kevin Smith (who should be the focal point of the offense), Calvin Johnson (who should be healthier) and Matthew Stafford (who could put up some garbage-time numbers). And I really hope the Lions aren't downplaying a knee injury by making Stafford play each week, because that would be kind of dumb.
Falcons at Panthers: DeAngelo Williams is apparently a "gametime decision" with a knee injury. That's a real worry, since it's a great matchup. (Or it's good news if you have Jonathan Stewart, I guess.) It's a 1 p.m. game, so at least you can check the inactives on Sunday morning. I'm assuming he can play, but it's just a guess at this point. Looks like Muhsin Muhammad will play; I know, who cares. And I'm starting Steve Smith because he's killed Atlanta in the recent past....although he killed a lot of teams in the past. I'd be fine starting Atlanta's key players, but Carolina's defense has played pretty well of late, so I'm not expecting a shootout.
Broncos at Washington: If Washington's offense were better, I'd be thinking upset here. But Clinton Portis is out and apparently Ladell Betts is also banged up (hope you didn't waste a high waiver pick on the guy), so it's unclear how Washington will use their tailbacks. If we can assume Betts is fine to go, he'll likely get most of the work, but the production might not be huge. Another low-scoring, defensive game...this looks like the week for that. It certainly started out that way in San Francisco.
Saints at Rams: Back in the day these teams played some classic high-scoring affairs. I remember a huge week 17 game a few years back where the Rams needed to win to make the playoffs, came all the way back within a score, forced a punt in the final two minutes -- and then fumbled the thing, denying us all the fun of the Rams offense in its prime being in the playoffs. I vaguely recall needing a few more points out of Torry Holt in a week 17 Super Bowl that I didn't get because of that fumble. Anyway, the Rams don't have a wide receiver on their roster who could have played for that Rams team. They've got Steven Jackson, and the Saints have all the other players you should be starting in this game.
Kansas City at Raiders: Always nice having the Raiders on a bye so we don't have to write about them. Javon Walker wants to be released. Wasn't so bad being in Green Bay or for that matter Denver, eh, Javon? I bet if Javon offers to give them back some of the money they've paid him, they'll see what they can do. Figure it will essentially be a Jamaal Charles-Kolby Smith tandem facing a Darren McFadden-Justin Fargas tandem. I know, can't wait to tune in for that one. These teams also used to play some shootouts not so long ago. This week it will probably be an ugly 13-10 sort of thing. The defenses aren't good, but who can trust the offenses? Not me. I'm starting Charles somewhere, with no other choice.
Eagles at Chargers: People would be calling this a possible Super Bowl preview if they weren't confident both teams would find a way to fall just short in the playoffs, as has been their recent history. As for this one game, it should be a good one. Eagles have tended to bounce back from bad losses, but the Chargers are playing good offense and better defense. Fun game. No injuries leap out at me. Nice matchup for both tight ends, although I grant you nobody needs a nice matchup to start these guys.
Seahawks at Cardinals: Seems like these teams just played. Cardinals shut Seattle down in Seattle a few weeks back. Arizona's offense will be fine. Seattle's passing offense should be. Looks like Anquan Boldin will play this week. No other news of note, beyond, I'm starting Warner over Roethlisberger this week and taking my chances.
Cowboys at Packers: The natives are growing restless in Green Bay. Packers fans have turned on Mike McCarthy, there's a story out about him having a stadium worker fired over some seemingly innocuous comment, and eventually when the fans get tired of kicking the head coach around they'll probably start blaming the GM, and then the quarterback...that's usually how these things go. This has the look of a high-scoring shootout, and Green Bay's been losing those games the last two years. It's almost as if they traded away the team's heart and....sorry.
Patriots at Colts: This matchup is one of the few that worries you if your team relies on stars from these teams. The Patriots have done a good job on Dallas Clark lately, and they can sometimes slow down Manning. The Colts haven't given up many passing touchdowns lately, which could work against New England's offense. Injury-wise, the players out are the ones you know about: Sammy Morris, Anthony Gonzalez. And the ones in might be surprisingly average, although Vegas seems to think this will be a high-scoring slugfest, so I guess you never know. Not that I'm benching Clark, or Welker, or even Austin Collie, I'm just saying there's some worry with these guys. Oh yeah, Donald Brown should return, which hurts a nice little fantasy run for Joseph Addai as a full-time tailback. As far as football goes, it should be an awesome Sunday Night game.
Ravens at Browns: And this is my suicide pool pick this week, even knowing that the Browns pulled a couple of upsets on Monday nights last season, including somehow beating the Giants. But, they don't score. They have no offensive talent. They can't stop the run, and the Ravens have three viable running backs. And veteran Jamal Lewis is openly taking shots at the head coach (join the club). So really, anything can happen, but betting against the Browns right now just seems to be the way to go. Fantasy advice, you know, if you've got any Ravens, there is no better matchup, and if you've got any Browns, all I can say is, why?
Enjoy the games.
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Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Nov. 13 at 10:14 PM
Andy: I hear you on the Thursday games. Brutal. And I get to stare at the 5.1 pts put up by Alex Smith who I started for Schaub. I had Sanchez as a backup and cut him to pick up Smith. I have to pick up a D for this week in a standard scoring league (points for sacks, turnovers and D/ST td's only). AZ (vs.SEA), ATL (@CAR), DAL (@GB), NYJ (vs.JAX) and MIA (vs.TB) are FA's. All seem like good matchups. Do you like any of these D's more than the rest? Also, in the league that I started Smith in (ppr), my 2nd RB is currently LT. He's been killing me all season. Backup RB's are Wells and McFadden. I don't really see either of them as upgrades. What do you think? Thanks in advance for any advice.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 13 at 10:35 PM
Peter - I've got those defenses ranked Dallas, Miami, Arizona. I like Dallas; Lambeau Field isn't a scary place to play, Dallas' pass rush is playing well lately, the Packers can't avoid sacks. Easy start. If you prefer the home team, Miami. On the running backs, Ian has all three of those guys ranked between 37 and 45. I wouldn't want to start any of them. Keeping in mind that I'm starting Jamaal Charles in a league; sometimes you have no choice but to go with an ugly option. If it were me, I suppose I'd go with Tomlinson. He's pretty much done and it's a lousy matchup, but he's the only one of the three that you know will get a lot of touches and score any touchdowns inside the 5 yard line. Thanks for reading and good luck.
Posted by Jered Ottenwess | Nov. 15 at 11:22 PM
Ah, hindsight. I always read this column on Monday and even though I agree with pretty much all your points, it's great to look back and see how wrong some of them are. I guess Beanie Wells' 2 TD's and 85 yards weren't worth starting? Good call on LT. Good call on Charles.