Viva Murillo!

Fantasy football is usually very different from the NFL, but in one way it's similar: If you take an unconventional risk, you'll definitely be criticized for it if it doesn't work out.

When Bill Belichick's gamble at the end of the Patriots/Colts game didn't pan out for New England, I could see what was coming next. I don't mean Peyton Manning's pass to Reggie Wayne, although that wasn't surprising. I don't even mean the Colts' excellent use of clock management, which was very different than the Buccaneers' poor use of the clock that gave the Dolphins a chance to win. I expect good teams to use good strategies (and poor teams to use poor ones).

No, when Kevin Faulk bobbled a pass that couldn't be challenged, I knew the commentators were lining up to attack the decision. And after the game, when the Colts had kept their record perfect and New England looked suddenly flawed, every talking head did what they do best: use 20/20 hindsight to earn their paycheck. Everyone knew you have to punt in that situation. It made no sense to risk the game like that. You have to show confidence in your defense, you have to lengthen the field for Manning and you have to make them drive for the winning score. Conventional wisdom was nearly unanimous, and everyone knew what Belichick should have done.

And the more I heard people say what a bad decision it was, the more it seemed like a pretty good move. If everyone thinks you have to do something, it's often a good time to consider doing something else. How many of Belichick's critics would have praised his "gutsy call" if it had paid off?

Going for fourth down wasn't a bad call. Punting wouldn't have been a bad call, either. If you're the type to play it safe, you punt. If you're the type to grab the brass ring, you go for it. Tony Dungy is the type of coach who would punt, so I don't fault him for his criticism. Even if it paid off I think Dungy would have criticized the call. But Belichick is different, and he went for it. Either way, you have to live with your decision. Just like in fantasy football.

In every league, owners are faced with decisions on draft day: Go with conventional wisdom or play your hunches? When you set your lineup you're faced with more choices. Can you really bench that starter? If you make the wrong move you'll hear it about on Sundays, at work, on the league website and on Internet message boards. After all, everybody knows you should have done something else. I've said it before and I'll repeat it again: In every 12-team league, 11 teams end up losing. So who cares what they think? Conventional wisdom helps you avoid criticism, but I think sometimes it helps you avoid success as well. Winners aren't conventional. They do things a little differently, whether it's better focus, better execution or different decisions. Sometimes they're lucky. But they're not like everyone else. If it's your team, you should call your own shots and live with the decision. Don't put your team on auto pilot and let "conventional wisdom" guide you to failure.

With just a few weeks left in the regular season, you'll have some important decisions to make regarding the waiver wire, trades and lineup decisions. I'm not trying to tell you what to do, but I am telling you to make those decisions yourself, based on what your gut tells you. Do your research, listen to valuable opinions (like you'll find in a certain person's weekly mailbag) and stay informed on your players and what their prospects look like. But don't let your buddies or a cable television roundtable make those decisions for you. Because simply losing isn't the worst thing that can happen to you in fantasy

football. You know what's worse? Losing when you wanted to do something else and made the conventional move anyway. If you lose based on your decisions, at least you called your own shots. It is your team, after all.

Now, that doesn't mean you should throw caution to the wind and make crazy moves just to be wacky and original. Mad geniuses don't win trophies. But Belichick's move wasn't really all that crazy. Two yards almost guarantees a win, since the Colts only had one timeout left and they were past the two-minute warning. Peyton Manning can score with two minutes and a timeout...but 30 seconds and no way to stop the clock? That's a lot harder. Those two yards might not only earn New England a win, but give them a good shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs (the Patriots would be just one game behind the Colts and own the tie-breaker). Two yards could lead to playing a rematch at home instead of another trip to the dome in a championship game. Two yards with Brady, Moss, Welker and Kevin Faulk all waiting to catch a pass. Is it really that bad of a decision?

In hindsight, yes. They didn't make it. But we don't get hindsight when playing fantasy football, either. So forget about conventional wisdom and make the decisions you want to make at this crucial point of the season. If you end up with Bill Belichick's track record by calling your own shots, I'm sure you'll accept it when things don't go your way sometimes.

You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.

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