24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson
Posted Nov. 27 at 08:20 PM
Since I don't get to preview the three Thanksgiving games, here's a one-line recap of each: Green Bay's not great, but they're good enough to blow out a team with a horrible defense, which is the Lions all over. OK, wait, second line: Kevin Smith is an awfully average-looking running back, the kind who seems to gravitate toward tacklers. The Raiders are just sad, with their wins and competitive losses some kind of miraculous occurrence that happens just often enough to fool some people into thinking they're headed in the right direction. And I can't figure out the Giants at all, beyond saying that maybe these Thursday games aren't so good for some teams, especially those traveling cross-country and playing at altitude. OK, on to the games....
Bucs at Falcons: Thought about making Atlanta my suicide pool pick, based on the Falcons' near-win at the Giants; after seeing the Giants play in Denver, I'm glad I didn't. Michael Turner is uncertain to play, which would make Jason Snelling a nice fill-in option against a bad Bucs D. Check the Sunday a.m. inactives; my leaning is he won't play, but the Falcons say he might. For the Bucs, their running backs are unusable; I'd consider Josh Freeman and even Antonio Bryant, because Atlanta's defense isn't very good.
Dolphins at Bills: Seeing the Bills here reminds me that next Thursday night's game is the Jets at the Bills. Wow, sounds like another really awesome Thursday matchup. As for this one, it appears Marshawn Lynch will be cleared to play, which means neither he nor Fred Jackson is viable against a pretty good Dolphins run defense (albeit one that's lost nose tackle Jason Ferguson). Ricky Williams should be awesome again facing a sorry Bills defense.
Washington at Eagles: Seems like we just saw this game; well, at least this one isn't in primetime. No Chris Cooley or Brian Westbrook. LeSean McCoy should be good; rest of the Eagles offense might be good, if we go with the idea that Washington starts mailing things in (which I think is possible). Your new starting running back for Washington, Rock Cartwright. Nice soap opera name, but I'm not sure about his game. Eagles do have a banged-up defense, however; most owners could do worse than Cartwright.
Seahawks at Rams: Thrilla. No Marc Bulger, so we've got Kyle Boller. Steven Jackson is banged-up and didn't practice on Friday, so that's a real concern -- would the Rams actually start Samkon Gado? Some of us really need SJax out there. Gotta check those Sunday a.m. inactives. Julius Jones may play, which is impressive (and a shame, since he can't be used, but Justin Forsett could be if Jones is ruled out). I suppose there could be some decent numbers out of a wide receiver or two here given that both secondaries are bad, but I wouldn't be rushing to use any of these guys.
Panthers at Jets: If Seattle-St. Louis features a lot of passing, this one should feature a lot of running. I'm actually benching Steve Smith somewhere just because I think the Panthers will run on almost every down, and the Jets should do the same. I'm down on quarterbacks and receivers. Ian called this the shortest game of the week, and I think he's right.
Browns at Bengals: This is my suicide pool pick -- me and almost everyone else left in the pool. Well, aside from the people who were knocked out a week ago by picking the Bengals in Oakland. But as everyone who saw the Lions game on Thanksgiving knows, Cleveland scoring 37 points against Detroit means almost nothing. Anyway, Cedric Benson is uncertain for this one, and the worse news is that even if he DOES play, Marvin Lewis says that Bernard Scott has earned a larger role. Making neither player as attractive as they might be. Hope none of you wasted a waiver claim on Larry Johnson. Check those Sunday inactives, and if Benson is on it, start Scott happily against a bad Cleveland run defense.
Colts at Texans: The Texans have developed a real skill for losing close games. Unlike the Jets, who probably aren't good enough, the Texans seem to be plenty good, they just find ways to lose. Kris Brown isn't clutch. They can't run when they need to. On and on. As for this game, well, maybe the Colts finally lose one. They can't keep winning close games all season, right? No significant injuries. No telling how the Texans will handle their running backs, although I'm starting Steve Slaton and hoping.
Kansas City at Chargers: Jamaal Charles, Chris Chambers, and San Diego's key starters are the players to use this week. The San Diego machine rolls onward until they blow one in the playoffs, I imagine.
Jaguars at 49ers: It's crazy that the Jaguars are kind of a playoff contender. That's what scheduling can do for you, I guess. Not a great matchup for Jones-Drew or Gore, but who can really bench these guys? Are there still 8-team leagues? I do like Crabtree and Sims-Walker here (no relation to mall store Crabtree & Evelyn, and yes I do have Christmas shopping on the brain right now).
Bears at Vikings: The Bears gave up two first-round picks for a quarterback. The Vikings coaxed a 40-year-old out of retirement. Things have worked out so far for one of these teams. Jay Cutler might be productive since we know the Bears won't run the ball. Minnesota should do pretty much whatever it wants to. I expect they'll run more than pass, but it's tough to sit down Favre these days. Adrian Peterson is sick. I don't think there's any doubt he plays, but check Sunday morning to make sure (this is a later start, however, so there might be some risk).
Cardinals at Titans: This feels like one of the odder matchups on the schedule. I know these teams must have played four years ago, but I don't remember it (or maybe the two teams were just so different then that it's as if they've never played). Quarterbacks for these teams four years ago -- yes, I just looked it up -- were Josh McCown and Billy Volek. Running backs Marcel Shipp and Chris Brown. OK, enough memory lane. Great matchup for both passing offenses. Chris Johnson is a must-start regardless, of course. I'm not betting against him or the red-hot Titans these days. Oh, no Justin Gage, so Nate Washington and Kenny Britt start again.
Steelers at Ravens: Low-scoring slugfest, one guesses, because they usually are. Ben Roethlisberger is probably going to start, but on Friday there was a report saying he might sit out. I'm avoiding him -- because of matchup, not because he got his bell rung last week -- although I'd start him if I didn't have another quality option, but there's some risk involved. The Steelers don't have backup Charlie Batch, either, so they'd be down to Dennis Dixon if Roethlisberger doesn't play. I really wouldn't want to use anyone here but Ray Rice, because he's Ray Rice, and Santonio Holmes, who's scored in five straight against the Ravens. I suppose most can't sit down Hines Ward, Heath Miller, or perhaps even Derrick Mason, either, but it's a tough matchup. Especially if Sunday morning rolls around and it sounds like Roethlisberger might sit.
Patriots at Saints: Yee-Haw! Should be the best Monday night game of the year. I don't know any better than you which running back the Patriots might feature, so I wouldn't want to use any of them but Kevin Faulk (who will play in passing formations, which there should be a lot of of). Lance Moore is probably out, again; I'd be fine with starting any other Saints receivers. Should be a shootout. I kind of like the Patriots here, for some reason; maybe because New Orleans' defense is a little banged up.
Enjoy the games.
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Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Nov. 27 at 11:36 PM
Andy: I agree that Scott is a no-brainer if Benson does not play, but is he worth a start over Wells or Cartwright even if Benson does play (ppr league)? I'm thinking maybe, but I think it might be best to go with a RB who has a more defined role. Also, I need a D to start this week (standard scoring for to's and d/st td's plus small bonus points for pts. allowed). NYJ vs. CAR, CAR @ NYJ (I agree with you that both teams will probably run all day in this game), SF vs. JAX, SEA @ STL and seem like the top choices to me but TEN, IND, BUF and WAS are also fa's. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 28 at 12:56 AM
If Benson is active, I wouldn't take the risk of using Scott, personally. I'd probably use Cartwright first. Scott second - don't like Wells against the Titans run D. All those Ds are kind of ugly; we've got them all ranked between 13 and 20, with the Titans the highest and San Francisco the lowest.
Posted by SUE BEALL | Nov. 28 at 02:01 AM
I need to play one RB but only have Benson, Turner and Bell...who is the best of these not good choices?? Thanks!
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 28 at 02:23 AM
Since Benson and Turner are both 1 p.m. games, I'd just be around my computer at noon EST on Sunday when the inactives come out. If both are inactive, you're stuck with Bell. If one is active, start him. If both are active, which seems really unlikely, I'd probably go with Benson, but you're taking a risk on workload no matter who you start. It will be easier to make a decision when you see who's actually active. If you have to decide right now, I'd probably go with the one guy certain to play - Bell - rather than risk taking a zero.