Ian Allan
We’re over two thirds of the way through the regular season, so the playoff position (and draft order) is starting to come into focus. Below, see one attempt (actually, two attempts) to make order of what’s remaining.
The first chart, built by giving each team fractions of wins from all remaining games, I’ve been running every week or so all year. With that system, I put a probability number on every NFL game. If a team has an estimated 80 percent chance of winning, it gets .80 or a win. Add up all those pieces (plus the existing wins), and we can put the teams in a approximate 1 thru 32 order.
Using that system, I’ve got New Orleans, Minnesota, Indianapolis and San Diego with the first-round byes. Cincinnati, New England, Dallas and Arizona are the other division winners. And the four wild cards go to Denver, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Not making the cut: Falcons, Titans, Ravens, Giants.
For this week, however, I’m also adding another chart. For the secondary chart, when a team is projected to be 55, 60 or 85 percent likely to get a win, it does not get a portion of a victory, it simply gets one win. I wanted to see how it would affect the final results.
Using the secondary, all-or-none, system, there are a few changes. The same 12 teams make the playoffs, but there are some changes in ordering. On the AFC side, the Colts and Patriots would get the byes. The first round would feature of a pair of divisional matchups – 10-6 Denver at 11-5 San Diego, and 11-5 Pittsburgh at 11-5 Cincinnati. In the NFC, New Orleans and Minnesota would get the byes. In the first round, it would be 10-6 Green Bay at 11-5 Arizona and 10-6 Philadelphia at 12-4 Dallas.
In the secondary system, I’ve got all playoff teams winning at least 10 games. Four teams finish 9-7 and don’t make the cut: Titans, Giants, Jaguars, Ravens.
A couple of observations on this stuff:
Minnesota currently has one loss, but it’s really only a half behind New Orleans in the NFC. The Vikings’ loss was at Pittsburgh – an AFC team – so if the Saints stumble in one of their remaining games (perhaps at Atlanta or against Dallas), Minnesota will be in position to take the pole position in the NFC. As long as Minnesota keeps playing, the Saints will not be able to rest players, even in their week 17 game at Carolina.
If both Tampa Bay and St. Louis run the table (losing all of their remaining) games and finish 1-15, the Bucs will get the No. 1 pick in the draft. The tiebreaker there would be strength of schedule, and the Bucs will have played their games against teams that have won (by our count) 5 fewer games than the Rams.
Sunday’s game between Tennessee and Indianapolis is pivotal. If the Titans can pull that one off – and I think they’ve got a chance – I believe they’ll run the table and finish 10-6. But even at 10-6, I don’t think the Titans will get in. Both Pittsburgh and Denver, as long as they finish with 10-plus wins, will finish ahead of the Titans. Pittsburgh beat them back in the season opener, and the Broncos have a much better conference record. If you’re a Titans fan, in other words, you’re going to need Denver to drop one of its games against Kansas City (twice) or Oakland – and that’s assuming it loses at both Indianapolis and Philadelphia. Otherwise, Tennessee might have to be content with being the only team on a 10-game winning streak to be left out of the playoffs.
PROJECTED WINS FOR EACH TEAM
Based on giving each team some fraction of a win in each of the 256 regular-season games.
Wins
15.1 New Orleans
14.6 Indianapolis
14.0 Minnesota
11.2 San Diego
11.1 Cincinnati
10.9 Dallas
10.8 New England
10.2 Arizona
10.0 Denver
9.8 Philadelphia
9.8 Green Bay
9.8 Pittsburgh
9.5 Baltimore
8.6 Atlanta
8.4 Tennessee
8.4 NY Giants
8.3 Jacksonville
7.9 San Francisco
7.9 Houston
7.4 NY Jets
6.7 Miami
6.2 Seattle
5.6 Buffalo
5.6 Carolina
5.6 Chicago
4.8 Kansas City
4.4 Washington
4.3 Oakland
2.9 Detroit
2.6 Cleveland
2.1 Tampa Bay
2.0 St. Louis
PROJECTED RECORDS FOR EACH TEAM – TAKE TWO
Based on calling a winner in each of the remaining games.
W-L
16-0 Indianapolis
16-0 New Orleans
15-1 Minnesota
12-4 Dallas
12-4 New England
11-5 Arizona
11-5 San Diego
11-5 Cincinnati
11-5 Pittsburgh
10-6 Denver
10-6 Green Bay
10-6 Philadelphia
9-7 Baltimore
9-7 Jacksonville
9-7 NY Giants
9-7 Tennessee
8-8 Atlanta
8-8 Houston
8-8 NY Jets
7-9 San Francisco
6-10 Seattle
5-11 Carolina
5-11 Chicago
5-11 Kansas City
5-11 Miami
4-12 Buffalo
4-12 Washington
3-13 Detroit
3-13 Oakland
2-14 Cleveland
1-15 St. Louis
1-15 Tampa Bay
SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
The likelihood of each team winning in each of its remaining games. If a team has a number of 85 percent, we’re real sure it will win. If it’s down under 20 percent, an upset is very unlikely.
Arizona
loss San Francisco (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
bye week
win Houston (H)
win Seattle (A)
win NY Giants (A)
loss Carolina (H)
win Chicago (A)
win Seattle (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Tennessee (A)
30% Minnesota (H)
55% San Francisco (A)
90% Detroit (A)
90% St. Louis (H)
55% Green Bay (H)
Atlanta
win Miami (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss New England (A)
bye week
win San Francisco (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss Dallas (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
win Washington (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
43% Philadelphia (H)
25% New Orleans (H)
40% NY Jets (A)
80% Buffalo (H)
70% Tampa Bay (A)
Baltimore
win Kansas City (H)
win San Diego (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
win Denver (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Pittsburgh (H)
40% Green Bay (A)
94% Detroit (H)
95% Chicago (H)
35% Pittsburgh (A)
85% Oakland (A)
Buffalo
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
win NY Jets (A)
win Carolina (A)
loss Houston (H)
bye week
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Miami (H)
47% NY Jets (H)
45% Kansas City (A)
25% New England (H)
20% Atlanta (A)
25% Indianapolis (H)
Carolina
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Dallas (A)
bye week
win Washington (H)
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Arizona (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
win Atlanta (H)
loss Miami (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
75% Tampa Bay (H)
10% New England (A)
20% Minnesota (H)
40% NY Giants (A)
15% New Orleans (H)
Chicago
loss Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Detroit (H)
bye week
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Arizona (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
60% St. Louis (H)
35% Green Bay (H)
5% Baltimore (A)
15% Minnesota (H)
45% Detroit (A)
Cincinnati
loss Denver (H)
win Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Baltimore (A)
loss Houston (H)
win Chicago (H)
bye week
win Baltimore (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
loss Oakland (A)
win Cleveland (H)
93% Detroit (H)
25% Minnesota (A)
35% San Diego (A)
90% Kansas City (H)
65% NY Jets (A)
Cleveland
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Denver (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss Chicago (A)
bye week
loss Baltimore (H)
loss Detroit (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
20% San Diego (H)
20% Pittsburgh (H)
30% Kansas City (A)
57% Oakland (H)
30% Jacksonville (H)
Dallas
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Kansas City (A)
bye week
win Atlanta (H)
win Seattle (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
loss Green Bay (A)
win Washington (H)
win Oakland (H)
55% NY Giants (A)
60% San Diego (H)
30% New Orleans (A)
75% Washington (A)
65% Philadelphia (H)
Denver
win Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Oakland (A)
win Dallas (H)
win New England (H)
win San Diego (A)
bye week
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss San Diego (H)
win NY Giants (H)
70% Kansas City (A)
25% Indianapolis (A)
85% Oakland (H)
35% Philadelphia (A)
85% Kansas City (H)
Detroit
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
win Washington (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
bye week
loss St. Louis (H)
loss Seattle (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Green Bay (H)
7% Cincinnati (A)
6% Baltimore (A)
10% Arizona (H)
12% San Francisco (A)
55% Chicago (H)
Green Bay
win Chicago (H)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
win Detroit (H)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win Dallas (H)
win San Francisco (H)
win Detroit (A)
60% Baltimore (H)
65% Chicago (A)
30% Pittsburgh (A)
75% Seattle (H)
45% Arizona (A)
Houston
loss NY Jets (H)
win Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win Cincinnati (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Indianapolis (A)
bye week
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Indianapolis (H)
45% Jacksonville (A)
70% Seattle (H)
75% St. Louis (A)
55% Miami (A)
40% New England (H)
Indianapolis
win Jacksonville (H)
win Miami (A)
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
win Tennessee (A)
bye week
win St. Louis (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Houston (H)
win New England (H)
win Baltimore (A)
win Houston (A)
55% Tennessee (H)
75% Denver (H)
70% Jacksonville (A)
80% NY Jets (H)
75% Buffalo (A)
Jacksonville
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Arizona (H)
win Houston (A)
win Tennessee (H)
loss Seattle (A)
win St. Louis (H)
bye week
loss Tennessee (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win NY Jets (A)
win Buffalo (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
55% Houston (H)
60% Miami (H)
30% Indianapolis (H)
15% New England (A)
70% Cleveland (A)
Kansas City
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Dallas (H)
win Washington (A)
loss San Diego (H)
bye week
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Oakland (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
loss San Diego (A)
30% Denver (H)
55% Buffalo (H)
70% Cleveland (H)
10% Cincinnati (A)
15% Denver (A)
Miami
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
loss New Orleans (H)
win NY Jets (A)
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
win Carolina (A)
loss Buffalo (A)
30% New England (H)
40% Jacksonville (A)
20% Tennessee (A)
45% Houston (H)
35% Pittsburgh (H)
Minnesota
win Cleveland (A)
win Detroit (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Green Bay (H)
win St. Louis (A)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
win Green Bay (A)
bye week
win Detroit (H)
win Seattle (H)
win Chicago (H)
70% Arizona (A)
75% Cincinnati (H)
80% Carolina (A)
85% Chicago (A)
85% NY Giants (H)
New England
win Buffalo (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Tennessee (H)
win Tampa Bay (A)
bye week
win Miami (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win NY Jets (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
70% Miami (A)
90% Carolina (H)
75% Buffalo (A)
85% Jacksonville (H)
60% Houston (A)
New Orleans
win Detroit (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Buffalo (A)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
win NY Giants (H)
win Miami (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Carolina (H)
win St. Louis (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
win New England (H)
85% Washington (A)
75% Atlanta (A)
70% Dallas (H)
96% Tampa Bay (H)
85% Carolina (A)
NY Giants
win Washington (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Arizona (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss San Diego (H)
bye week
win Atlanta (H)
loss Denver (A)
45% Dallas (H)
53% Philadelphia (H)
65% Washington (A)
60% Carolina (H)
15% Minnesota (A)
NY Jets
win Houston (A)
win New England (H)
win Tennessee (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Miami (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Oakland (A)
loss Miami (H)
bye week
loss Jacksonville (H)
loss New England (A)
win Carolina (H)
53% Buffalo (A)
70% Tampa Bay (A)
60% Atlanta (H)
20% Indianapolis (A)
35% Cincinnati (H)
Oakland
loss San Diego (H)
win Kansas City (A)
loss Denver (H)
loss Houston (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss San Diego (A)
bye week
loss Kansas City (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Dallas (A)
5% Pittsburgh (A)
48% Washington (H)
15% Denver (A)
43% Cleveland (A)
15% Baltimore (H)
Philadelphia
win Carolina (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
win Kansas City (H)
bye week
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Oakland (A)
win Washington (A)
win NY Giants (H)
loss Dallas (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Chicago (A)
win Washington (H)
57% Atlanta (A)
47% NY Giants (A)
75% San Francisco (H)
65% Denver (H)
35% Dallas (A)
Pittsburgh
win Tennessee (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win San Diego (H)
win Detroit (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Minnesota (H)
bye week
win Denver (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss Kansas City (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
95% Oakland (H)
80% Cleveland (A)
70% Green Bay (H)
65% Baltimore (H)
65% Miami (A)
San Diego
win Oakland (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
win Miami (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
bye week
loss Denver (H)
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
win NY Giants (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
win Denver (A)
win Kansas City (H)
80% Cleveland (A)
40% Dallas (A)
65% Cincinnati (H)
45% Tennessee (A)
85% Washington (H)
San Francisco
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Atlanta (H)
bye week
loss Houston (A)
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
win Chicago (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
48% Seattle (A)
45% Arizona (H)
25% Philadelphia (A)
88% Detroit (H)
80% St. Louis (A)
Seattle
win St. Louis (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Chicago (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Arizona (H)
bye week
loss Dallas (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss Arizona (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (A)
52% San Francisco (H)
30% Houston (A)
80% Tampa Bay (H)
25% Green Bay (A)
30% Tennessee (H)
St. Louis
loss Seattle (A)
loss Washington (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Detroit (A)
bye week
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Arizona (H)
loss Seattle (H)
40% Chicago (A)
8% Tennessee (A)
25% Houston (H)
10% Arizona (A)
20% San Francisco (H)
Tampa Bay
loss Dallas (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss Carolina (H)
loss New England (H)
bye week
win Green Bay (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
25% Carolina (A)
30% NY Jets (H)
20% Seattle (A)
4% New Orleans (A)
30% Atlanta (H)
Tennessee
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Houston (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss New England (A)
bye week
win Jacksonville (H)
win San Francisco (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win Houston (A)
win Arizona (H)
45% Indianapolis (A)
92% St. Louis (H)
80% Miami (H)
55% San Diego (H)
70% Seattle (A)
Washington
loss NY Giants (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Detroit (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss Kansas City (H)
loss Philadelphia (H)
bye week
loss Atlanta (A)
win Denver (H)
loss Dallas (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
15% New Orleans (H)
52% Oakland (A)
35% NY Giants (H)
25% Dallas (H)
15% San Diego (A)
—Ian Allan
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