24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson
Posted Dec. 04 at 08:08 PM
This is the last week of the regular season in some fantasy leagues -- the ones with six- or eight-team playoffs, the latter of which I might add I'm opposed to. Any 12-team league that puts eight teams in the playoffs (and I'm in a couple of them) really does a disservice to the regular season. But hey, too late to change that now. Couple of quick thoughts on Jets-Bills: neither Ryan Fitzpatrick nor Kellen Clemens can play; the difference is that the Bills actually chose to put Fitzpatrick in the lineup. Mark Sanchez could have had a big game if Braylon Edwards hadn't dropped a long touchdown, and if David Clowney could have held onto one at the side of the end zone. Hope his knee is OK, because I don't know if the Jets will even beat Tampa Bay with Clemens...but the Jets also need to think long-term, and should probably hold him out a game to get him healthy. OK, on to Sunday's games....
Eagles at Falcons: This game would have a lot of star power if played earlier in the season. As it is, there's definitely no Matt Ryan or Brian Westbrook, and almost certainly no Michael Turner or DeSean Jackson. (Nor Michael Jenkins, on the off chance you have him under consideration.) Neither defense has been that great, the Eagles due to linebacker injuries, so I'd gladly use the healthy players in this one, aside from Chris Redman.
Rams at Bears: I've been alone on this, but I don't think the Rams are that bad. They could have and should have beat Seattle last week. And I think they could win here, although granted Kyle Boller's a poor quarterback and will probably find a way to lose it. Make sure Steven Jackson's out there, as he's dealing with a sore back and didn't practice all week.
Lions at Bengals: I give the Lions a puncher's chance in this one, just because the Bengals aren't scoring enough even against soft defenses. But Cedric Benson is back and should be very good, and maybe Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco will put nice numbers against a truly awful secondary. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will play against a defense softer against the pass than the run, Kevin Smith will be out there catching passes and averaging, what, 3.3 yards per carry or somesuch. No Bernard Scott for Cincinnati.
Titans at Colts: Who can bet against Tennessee right now? Not me. Maybe Chris Johnson and Vince Young run wild and the Titans make enough plays to beat a Colts team that's really due to lose. Justin Gage may return, but I'd consider Kenny Britt anyway. By the way, the Colts can say whatever they want about resting players, and they will, but I don't buy that there aren't a few Colts who would LOVE to go 16-0. Sure, the goal is to win the Super Bowl, but a perfect season gives you football immortality -- I bet they go for it.
Broncos at Kansas City: Nothing major to say about this one. Players are healthy, the Broncos D has an advantage over a sack-prone Matt Cassel, and Denver's offense should be pretty good against a soft defense. Denver has strangely laid an egg a few times in previous years in this matchup, but I'd start 'em anyway.
Patriots at Dolphins: The Patriots lose a game and everyone writes them off. I don't even like them a little bit, but c'mon -- getting smoked on Monday night in New Orleans doesn't mean they're not still one of the best teams in the league. They could lose this game; Miami's the kind of team that can play with anyone. But I think they'll bounce back and get a win. I wouldn't use a Patriots running back or a Dolphins wide receiver, but New England's passing game and the total production out of Ricky Williams should be fine.
Raiders at Steelers: Ah yes, the classic '70s battle. Which is now a matchup of one of the league's best defenses and a horrible passing offense. Ben Roethlisberger should play, but I really don't see him airing it out against this defense. Love Rashard Mendenhall this week. The Raiders, as usual, have Zach Miller and absolutely nothing else.
Saints at Washington: New Orleans should run wild in this game, so good situation for Pierre Thomas and perhaps even Mike Bell. I'd downgrade their passing game -- not that I'd bench Drew Brees, but I'd be less eager to start Devery Henderson or Robert Meachem. For Washington, it sounds like it could be Todd Collins (with Jason Campbell exhibiting concussion-like symptoms after last week's game) and Rock Cartwright "leading the way." If you're starting Cartwright, it's because you have no choice, but he could be reasonably productive.
Texans at Jaguars: Probably one of the relative shootouts of the week. Steve Slaton (neck) won't play, something that basically came out on Friday and messes up those of us whose other option played Thursday night, don't have Chris Brown, and don't want to chance Ryan Moats. I may actually end up using Cleveland's Chris Jennings this week in a league with a division title on the line, which is scary. As for this game, I'd start either quarterback, Maurice Jones-Drew (not like you need help with that one), and the top wideouts. And I'd expect Jacksonville to win a close one, because they win them and Houston loses them, not that either team is going anywhere this year. Both should be 8-8 when all is said and done.
Bucs at Panthers: No Jake Delhomme, which is good news for Steve Smith I'm thinking. It has to be. DeAngelo Williams is banged-up, so make sure he's not inactive come gameday; if he is, big upgrade for Jonathan Stewart. In general this will probably be an ugly game with plenty of running, but I'm starting Smith anyway, I guess just because he's Steve Smith and the Bucs have a lousy defense.
Cowboys at Giants: Would like to see the Giants win this game, just to make the NFC playoff picture more interesting. But they're not very good right now. Dallas' defense is better, they're running the ball better, and I can't get past how awful New York looked in Denver last week. Ahmad Bradshaw may not play; probably won't do much if he does.
Chargers at Browns: There are three late afternoon games. Cowboys-Giants, this eyesore, and 49ers-Seahawks. Sounds like an awesome time to decorate the Christmas tree. Start your Chargers, leave any Browns players on waivers where they belong. I guess desperate owners can consider Chris Jennings or Jerome Harrison; the two will probably split the carries. As long as you don't count on any touchdowns, since that's not the Browns' bag. Chargers are my suicide pool pick, with nine people alive (and a lot of them have used the Chargers and Steelers, the week's two best picks). And I imagine they'll be giving away tickets to this game outside the stadium.
49ers at Seahawks: Word is that Julius Jones will be back in the starting lineup, and then Justin Forsett went and hurt his quad in practice on Friday, making him questionable. Super. Tough matchup for Seattle runners, especially if both guys are active. I'd happily use Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Alex Smith, Matt Hasselbeck, and Seattle's top two wideouts. Should be a pass-happy day.
Vikings at Cardinals: Ah, this is why there's only interesting afternoon game -- NBC swiped this one. I refuse to believe too strongly in the Vikings, because I know that's when they'll let us all down, but dang, they're pretty good. Not much of a weakness on this team, health permitting. As for this game, Arizona's got a decent pass rush so they might get some pressure on Brett Favre, but I'm not betting against Minnesota's offense anyway. I own Kurt Warner in one league and am starting him if he plays, but I also picked up Matt Leinart just in case; Warner is being called a gametime decision, so I wanted to have another option to use that evening. Arizona's more likely to pass than run. Should be a good game. Adrian Peterson is healthy and pretty fast these days, yeah, easy joke.
Ravens at Packers: Another of the week's better games in primetime, further explaining all the boring Sunday games. I'm still not buying Green Bay's defense and not betting against the Ravens' offense here; I'd start Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay receivers, but I'm giving the Ravens a chance to make a rough outing for him. Some may recall that in Rodgers' first real NFL action, in a blowout loss for the Packers in I believe his rookie season, he broke his foot against the Ravens. Just passing it along.
Enjoy the games.
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Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 04 at 10:58 PM
Andy: I was gonna ask you about picking up C. Brown and starting him over Cartwright, but some clown in my ppr league whose team is on life support and who is already starting T. Jones and Rice this week picked him up and he now resides on the guys' bench. Unbelievable. A question about strategy instead. Standard scoring league. No FA pickups allowed after this week, playoffs begin next week. I'm currently carrying 2 TE's (Shockey & H. Miller), 2 D's (DAL & NYG) and 1 K (Bironas). My TE's have been bad of late, but I'm not sure that any FA TE (F. Davis, Finley, Scaife) are better bets. Giants have not been useable of late so I'm thinking of picking up a FA D to use with DAL since they have SD & NO in weeks 14 and 15 (not teams you want to be using a D against). MIA, CHI, CAR, BUF, IND, TEN and NYJ are FA's. I'm also looking at picking up a FA kicker. Bironas has been great of late, but he was a little banged up earlier in the week. Word is he should be OK for Sunday, but I think I should have a back up kicker since I would not be able to pick up a FA later should he get hurt. I am sufficiently backed up at all other positions. I would have to drop either Cotchery, K. Smith or F-Jax to be able to roster 2 D's, 2 TE's and 2 K's. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 05 at 01:53 AM
Peter - Dallas can be used in week 16 (at Washington). In weeks 14-15, I think you could use the Giants (Washington, Carolina) or pick up the Jets (Tampa Bay, Atlanta). I wouldn't roster two kickers. I'd assume Bironas is OK, or if that's too much risk, drop him for somebody else. It just seems more risky to me to drop a player you might need, like Smith, FJax, or Cotchery. Not knowing the rest of your roster, I don't know which one you'd have to start, but I could see any one of them being decent starts the rest of the way. I'd rather use Miller or Shockey than any of those other TE options. Basically I just can't recommend dropping a decent position player to have two kickers. Good luck.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 05 at 02:39 AM
Andy: Thanks so much for your time. My other WR's are Moss, Colston & Sims-Walker (can't imagine a scenario where I start Cotchery over them). My starting RB's are D-Will and Benson (considering their recent injuries, it would probably make more sense to hold onto both backup RB's). Looks like I missed the boat on the Jets as they are no longer available, due I assume to the fact that they have already played his week. What about TEN (home vs. STL & MIA in weeks 14-15) as opposed to the Giants (they actually play Philly in week 14 & @ WAS in week 15)?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 05 at 02:54 AM
Sorry about being off a week on the Giants. Yes, I like the Titans in those weeks. I agree that I wouldn't start Cotchery over your existing options, but you never know if one of those guys pulls a hamstring this week or something.
Posted by Scott Anderson | Dec. 05 at 03:15 AM
Hi Andy, great stuff as usual. I'm at 7-5, playing the 8-4 leader of my division. No question, it's a must-win. Anyway, just looking for your opinion on my dilemma: WRs are Driver, Hester & White (I traded Sidney Rice away like a MORON a few weeks ago, right before he became Favre's best friend). RBs are Jones-Drew, Chris Brown, Darren Sproles, Larry Johnson. Can start 2 of each & a flex. I'm thinking Jones-Drew & Brown, Driver & Hester, with Sproles as the flex. Would I be crazy for benching White for Sproles, given all the injuries on ATL while Sproles might get some serious garbage time against CLE? Well, I also had another question: Packers or Dolphins D/ST? We reward low-scoring games, in addition to the usual scoring points. Thanks in advance!
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 05 at 03:50 AM
Scott, thanks for reading. I'd use White over Sproles. The problem with San Diego is garbage-time snaps won't only go to Sproles; they could go to Hester (who carried 7 times in a similar situation against Denver) and the fullback Tolbert (who got 7 in that game, I think). I'd rather use White. On defenses, I've got Miami in the 20s and Green Bay at 16, so I guess that's how I'd vote. A possibly available team I've got higher is Carolina (Freeman turns it over a lot), although you'll probably be OK with Green Bay. I wouldn't really want to start a D against New England.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 05 at 11:49 PM
Andy: As you may have heard, Jacoby Jones will not play today. In hindsight, I guess I should have started Cotchery on Thur. in ppr league (10.8 pts from a WR3 is looking real good now). I can start Wallace or pick up James Jones, Reg. Brown, Aiken, Thomas (JAX), Hartline, Morgan (SF) or Amendola (best of the available FA's IMO). I realize I'm scrapin the bottom of the barrel here. I'm thinkin I should just stick w/Wallace and hope for a long TD vs. an OAK D that gives up plenty of big plays. Do you like any of the alternatives better? Thanks for your help.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 06 at 01:51 AM
Maybe too late but Wallace is just as much of a shot in the dark as the other guys. I'd actually consider Amendola; I watched all of last week's Rams game and he got a lot of looks. He should at least get you 7-8 points in a ppr league.