Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff
My friend Gene McCaffrey, who writes an annual baseball book (Wise Guy Baseball) that pays special attention to challenges, used to refer to relief pitcher as the infernal position. Challenge players own relievers mostly for one statistic -- saves -- and saves can come from almost any pitcher who gets save opportunities.
The problem is, save opportunities often bounce from one anointed closer to others according to considerations as fleeting (or imaginary) as who has the "closer mentality," the makeup required -- upon taking the mound to pitch a single inning, usually with the bases empty -- to get three outs before the other team scores enough runs to tie the game. You know: the makeup required to pitch with an ERA under 9.00, 18.00 or 27.00, depending on the situation.
Saves are baseball's infernal category because paying for a quality pitcher doesn't guarantee you'll get them. Mariano Rivera has paired an ERA under 2.00 with a WHIP under 1.00 four times in the five seasons since 2004; he hasn't led the American League in saves once during that stretch. Among those who have: Bob Wickman (T-2005), Joe Borowski (2007), Brian Fuentes (2009).
The infernal category. The infernal position.
Over the last few weeks, football has become just as infernal at one position of its own: kicker.
You may recall that I opened the year with a mix of Football Challenge kickers that worked perfectly. Ryan Longwell (MIN) was kicking for one of the game's best offenses at a reasonable price -- he'd been the easiest pick among all listed kickers. But my real luck came in the forms of Steven Hauschka (BAL, then) and Lawrence Tynes (NYG, still).
They were cheap. Their teams were scoring plenty. They were scoring plenty.
Hauschka opened the year with 8 kicking points vs. KC, then 7 at SD, then 10 vs. CLE. Tynes had already hit double-digits twice by the time Hauschka did it; he opened with 11 vs. WAS, then 15 at DAL.
Mix in Longwell and I was off to the only really hot kicking start I've ever had; I didn't have to think about any of these guys except to shuffle them out on their bye weeks ...
... until recently.
Hauschka, never known for his accuracy, started to struggle. So did Joe Flacco, for that matter, knocking the Ravens' offense down a couple of pegs and seeming to magnify Hauschka's misses. When he missed a field goal from inside of 40 yards in Week 9, then another in Week 10, he lost his job entirely -- to Billy Cundiff, who may as well be Joe Borowski.
Tynes, never on the solidest footing after a goofy injury cost him most of 2008, started to struggle. So did other Giants, for that matter, knocking their offense down a couple of pegs and seeming to magnify Tynes' misses. He hasn't lost his job -- yet -- but the team has recently worked out potential replacements including Hauschka (go figure) and Graham Gano.
Gano, for one, won't be getting Tynes' job -- he just signed with Washington, which dumped Shaun Suisham.
Suisham's fate was sealed when he missed a short kick that would have beaten the undefeated Saints on Sunday; instead the Saints won in overtime on a kick by Garrett Hartley ... who'd missed a would-have-been game-winner as regulation time expired ... in his first game after replacing John Carney.
This infernal position is burning the NFL down to the ground.
What to do about it?
Depends.
I assume none of you are stuck with Hauschka or Suisham or Carney AND no backup AND no purchases remaining. If you are, that will almost certainly cost you money in a categories game (perhaps in a points game as well), but nothing can be done about it. Ignore that possibility.
If you happen to be stuck with Hauschka or Suisham or Carney AND no backup BUT do have a purchase remaining, at least in a categories game you should use it right now. Again: sticking with any of those guys (or any other displaced kicker) will cost you money. If you've been riding Hauschka since he got cut, taking a zero every week, shame on you. Even in a points game, several zeros from a kicker equals a zero or two from a quarterback.
If you aren't stuck with any displaced kicker BUT do have Tynes AND no backup AND no purchases remaining, a quick but earnest prayer might be in order.
If you aren't stuck with any displaced kicker BUT do have Tynes AND no backup BUT have at least one purchase remaining, either use one right now (on Hartley, now manning one of the cushiest jobs in the league) or be sure to keep one in reserve just in case.
And if you aren't stuck with any displaced kicker AND don't have Tynes OR have a backup, my hat is off to you. You planned this better than I did.
I got one thing right, though, quite by accident.
Our man Ian Allan has written several times in the past few years about the incredible accuracy of today's placekickers. Younger kickers seem to be more accurate than ever before; some of the best old kickers last longer and longer and therefore crowd the competition for jobs; whatever, generation after generation the league is missing fewer kicks. That means that teams expect more and more of their kickers.
Thinking about that pre-season, I latched on to one of Ian's comments about Dan Carpenter's accuracy and stuck him on my taxi squads to back up the other guys. I always carry a backup kicker for bye coverage, and it just so happened that Carpenter was a schedule match for Longwell / Hauschka / Tynes -- but I picked him specifically for his accuracy.
That was smart, it turns out, because one thing I haven't had to worry about is Carpenter losing his job. My biggest possible disaster this season (barring injuries) would require both Hauschka and Tynes to be cut -- and even then, because I knew Carpenter would hold his job, I knew I could cover with just one kicker purchase for the whole year. I haven't made that purchase yet, and I still have one in reserve in every challenge in case Tynes doesn't pull through.
But the biggest lesson here?
It's for 2010. You won't see me write again that the only factors to consider when picking kickers are their salaries and their teams' likely offensive output. From now on I'll consider accuracy / job security along with the rest. Beats the hell out of the "kicker mentality."
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Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 09 at 01:55 AM
Justin: I guess that's why Peyton called his former one an "idiot kicker". What are your thoughts on using Schaub in a points league (or any league, for that matter) for the remainder of the season (or however long he lasts). Having had two QB's I started go down early in games this season, I'm a little hesitant. I know any player can get hurt at any time in the NFL, but I'm a little more comfortable starting a player who is not already one hit away from having to leave a game (and you know opposing defenses will be gunning for the shoulder). My options would be to go more expensive @ QB and start Warner (has his issues also but has a cupcake schedule) or pick up a similarly-priced QB (Favre or Palmer) or a cheaper option (A. Smith or VY). Starting Warner would force me to have to go cheaper at other positions (which may not be terrible since I have some productive cheapo options at RB & WR) and starting Smith or VY would allow me to spend more on other positions (although I don't necessarily have many more expensive options due to injuries, etc.). What will your strategy be? Thanks
Posted by James Baker | Dec. 09 at 05:27 AM
Justin, should I start Holmes over Vincent Jackson or Steve Smith, NYG's version? By doing so I might have to buy a kicker (Hartley) or a DF (Den) to free up some cap space. (Only 2 buys left). You talked about weather last week and would you bench Rodgers @ CHI, I'd rather start a QB in a dome... but that move might be suicide. Another crazy thought I'm having is benching Ray Rice, 2 fumbles on monday night, because he might be Slatonized this week. 39th OVR in 5k, thanks for helping me finance that kayak business I've been dreaming of...
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Dec. 10 at 07:10 AM
Peter: I could see going cheaper if this was one of those years when we all wanted three top-salaried RBs, but it isn't. Peterson and J-D are fitting comfortably into most lineups most weeks, and after that I genuinely like C.J. and Rice and Mendenhall and even some weeks Ricky as much as I like anyone. If you have a bunch of top-dollar WRs (or a bunch of purchases for them) I guess the Smith / Young route could work, but meh. I'd sooner go up the salary lists than down. In the middle Favre probably doesn't have four games left, and he may not have three the way the standings are set up. Palmer could work; I kinda like him to have some bigger games down the stretch. But the real question is whether you need to go away from Schaub at all. Non-throwing shoulder, seems to be holding up OK in practice ... I suspect most teams will ride him, and while that means you could gain if you don't and he goes down again, you could also lose if you don't and he doesn't. Check the injury report, keep your fingers crossed, stick it out. That's probably what I'll do; I've been riding Brady / Rodgers / Schaub most weeks and it's worked fine. My main strategy is to keep using the guys I slotted as low-percentage difference-makers (Fitz, Jennings, like that) and hope they finally do have a few huge games between them. If it doesn't happen I'll finish 30th overall in the $50K points game; if it does I'll finish somewhere better than my current 15th.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Dec. 10 at 07:15 AM
James: I really like Holmes tonight. He's getting a ton - a TON - of work lately and might well be one of those low-percentage difference-makers for you. Spending a purchase on Hartley and using Holmes with him wouldn't scare me at all. On sitting Rodgers and Rice ... unless you're hearing things I'm not, I think that's overthinking. Rodgers is one of the very most dynamic players in the league - it's no accident he's been so great all season - and sitting his middling salaries is asking to lose. Same with Rice's cheapcheap salaries. You are more likely to cost yourself big points than to gain big points with those guys on the bench, and to me that makes the moves non-starters.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Dec. 10 at 12:24 PM
11 more targets for Holmes, but boy oh boy do these Steelers stink. No heart whatsoever. I don't care what the weather is; you can't lose a game to CLE when you're 6-6 and looking at sitting out the playoffs. Separately, how lucky has ESPN been with the Monday games relative to NFL Network and week after week of unwatchable dreck on Thursdays?
Posted by James Baker | Dec. 12 at 02:37 AM
Cleveland played great defense... I'm from Pittsburgh and I hope the Browns keep playing defense like that.
Posted by James Baker | Dec. 12 at 02:45 AM
Justin, I'm leaning towards starting the Warner/V. Jackson combo over Favre/Moss this week. Benching AP would free up a lot of room, with ___________, Turner, Forte, and Deangelo Williams on my bench. That game was terrible, but Cleveland may have turned a corner.
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Dec. 12 at 11:05 PM
James: Agree with Warner/V. over Favre/Moss given what I'm hearing about the weather and Brady's injuries and the Pats' gameplan for today. Benching Peterson ... for which of those guys would it make sense? Benson at MIN? Certainly not Turner (he's not likely to play) or Forte (he's not likely to play well). I guess Williams could work, but I wouldn't do it. And I'd give you 3-to-1 that Cleveland has not indeed turned a corner. PIT's O-line is awful. Last year they couldn't run, but this year that's mostly solved by Rashard Mendenhall genuinely running hard. Now the problem is that the line still stinks, and it isn't meshing too well with Big Ben's keep-extending-the-play approach. He waits for plays to develop downfield; the pocket is collapsing on every play. Even against CLE.
Posted by James Baker | Dec. 12 at 11:48 PM
Mike Sims Walker is a game time decision... the easiest move is swapping Drew/Walker combo for D. Williams/S. Smith NYG... Drew/Walker looks better but if walker's out should I bench Drew or look for cap relief elsewhere?
Posted by James Baker | Dec. 12 at 11:51 PM
If that was 4 o'clock game I'd sit walker... looks like he's out and I'm scrambling to make things fit.
Posted by James Baker | Dec. 13 at 01:35 AM
Walker/Drew it is