24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson
Posted Dec. 11 at 07:55 PM
It's playoff time, and most are hoping they didn't start anyone in that ugly Steelers-Browns affair. If you're keeping score at home, we've now had seven Thursday games (including the three on Thanksgiving). Three were deadly dull low-scoring affairs: 10-6 Niners, 19-13 Jets, 13-6 Browns. Those games featured 4 total touchdowns. Three -- all of the Thanksgiving games -- were ugly blowouts. And then one good game between the Dolphins and Panthers (24-17). So while I like the idea of an extra day/night of football, the execution just isn't there, either because of the matchups (did the world really need another Browns-Steelers primetime battle?), the short week, or just bad luck.
OK, on to the games....
Saints at Falcons: I don't like Atlanta's chances in this one. Doesn't sound good for Matt Ryan or Michael Turner (although we won't know for sure until Sunday, I imagine) playing. Plus I just think the Saints, after getting lucky at Washington, will come through with their best game in the relatively friendly confines of a domed stadium. No Lance Moore, most likely. Also, Mike Bell may not play -- I'd happily start Pierre Thomas regardless, as the Saints should have a lot of success running the ball. (And since I'm facing Michael Murillo's team with Drew Brees in a playoff matchup, the more running, the better.)
Lions at Ravens: Ordinarily you'd think the Ravens would just pitch a shutout or something, but that's not the Ravens team I saw playing at Green Bay on Monday night. Didn't get much pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Had Joe Flacco throwing bombs down the middle of the field with Ray Rice open short (and yes, I did lose a game by 3 freaking points thanks to Rice's off-game, plus my opponent had Rodgers). I'm just not buying them right now. So yeah, they'll probably win, especially with Daunte Culpepper in for Matthew Stafford serving up sacks and fumbles, but I don't see playoffs in Baltimore's future. Stafford's the only noteworthy injury. Lions have an awful defense, so I can make a case for Flacco, Mason, Rice (obviously) and even McGahee vulturing a short score or two, even though he's not better in those situations than Rice. Mark Clayton may not play and is unreliable if he does.
Packers at Bears: Devin Hester almost certainly won't play. Probably wouldn't do much if he did. Chicago's defense is horrible and their offense has a lot of problems, too. I have no idea why I picked Chicago in a picks pool this week....wishful thinking, I suspect. I have seen Green Bay take a better team into Chicago and lose in the past, though, so you never know. Green Bay is banged up on the defensive line, which should help Matt Forte. (And he really needs it.) Short week, lots of positive media, yada yada. Still, I'd start any Green Bay players. And I'm starting Cutler somewhere because he's my only healthy quarterback in a league I got roped into that I never bothered with the waiver wire, just went about my business starting players each week. Doing fairly well, actually; Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. I suspect Cutler will struggle.
Seahawks at Texans: No Steve Slaton. Matt Schaub (shoulder) practiced fully on Friday, so it sounds like he's good to go barring a setback. Nice matchup -- and both teams will use running back tandems: Julius Jones and Justin Forsett for Seattle, Chris Brown and Ryan Moats for Houston. Unappealing. Two disappointing teams playing out the string. I like the wideouts and quarterbacks.
Broncos at Colts: I lived in Denver when the Colts used to kick the Broncos all over Mile High -- one really memorable snowy Monday night game -- and a couple of postseasons in a row at Indianapolis. This is a better Broncos defense, but it's a pretty similar Colts offense. I like them all, except for Donald Brown who won't play. For Denver, eh, there's Knowshon Moreno and Brandon Marshall, and not much else.
Dolphins at Jaguars: Strange to say, but the winner of this game has a really good shot at making the playoffs. The Dolphins will win a tie with several playoff hopefuls (like the Jets, and Jacksonville if they win this game), while the Jaguars would have one of the two best records of the wildcard contenders. (Although they've got games against Indy and New England left.) As for this game, you've got to be impressed with how tough the Dolphins have been this year. It's inexplicable how they've lost to some bad teams, like Buffalo, but they've also played the good teams tough. I don't think either team's defense is that great right now, but there's also not a ton of great offensive talent besides the running backs. Biggest news is that Mike Sims-Walker is doubtful - big negative for the Jags. Mike Thomas would fill in and might be OK; I like the guy.
Bills at Kansas City: I'm starting Fred Jackson in one league and Marshawn Lynch in another -- that's how little I think of Kansas City's defense. I actually recommended Ryan Fitzpatrick to someone the other day (although granted his other choices were even worse). Terrell Owens and Lee Evans have value. And I love Jamaal Charles -- and nothing else from Kansas City.
Bengals at Vikings: Considered the Vikings in my suicide pool, which I've somehow hung on all the way since week 3. Didn't take them in part because the Bengals kicked me out of another one when they beat the Packers way back in week 2, and in part because the Bengals are a decent team. I do, however, think Minnesota will bounce back here. Percy Harvin is questionable with migraines -- didn't practice all week. I won't give the guy any grief because I know he's plenty tough and because I know migraines can be, too. But, be careful using him; make sure he's active. Everyone else of value on both sides should be good to go. Both teams are better stopping the run than the pass.
Panthers at Patriots: Tom Brady practiced at least some on Friday. Officially he's questionable, but I can't imagine he'd miss this must-win game. No Jake Delhomme. Carolina weaker against the run, but who can tell how the Patriots will use their backs. New England weaker against the pass, but it's Matt Moore, so... DeAngelo Williams is back and good to go. I'm using Steve Smith and hoping Moore is better this week than he was last.
Jets at Bucs: Two songs I can't handle: Santa Baby -- it's just cloying; seems like it's on the wrong speed or something. And then that dreadful Paul McCartney song about simply having a wonderful Christmastime. It's just horrible. Speaking of which, the Jets are starting Kellen Clemens, who was scary bad in relief of Mark Sanchez in Buffalo last Thursday. Hopefully a full week of practice with the first team will help. (Couldn't hoit.) Regardless, I'm wary of Jets receivers, although it's a soft matchup. I like Dustin Keller OK. I'm considering Shonn Greene in a league, that's how bad the Bucs defense is. Thomas Jones is obvious. And I want no part of anything to do with the Bucs this week. I'll go Jets 17, Bucs 7. You can thank me later.
Rams at Titans: The suicide pool pick. And oh yeah, a rematch of a 10-year-old Super Bowl. 10 years! Wow. I like Steven Jackson, even though he didn't practice all week, and nothing else for St. Louis. For Tennessee, Chris Johnson is questionable, but he's playing, no worries. Vince Young also says he'll play, but there's some uncertainty with him. I probably wouldn't use him; he shouldn't have to do much this week. Justin Gage isn't even on the injury report, but again, I don't see the Titans passing a lot, and Kenny Britt might be better than Gage right now. I'm not crazy about this as a suicide pick -- I've been talking up the Rams a lot of weeks as better than their record -- but the other options left to me were worse.
Washington at Raiders: Late in the season, the games get uglier and uglier. I mean sure, there are some good games (see below) but then you get ones with teams that were bad to start the season, and now they've got backups all over the field. Quinton Ganther starts. For Washington, for those of you who have never heard of the guy. Er, at running back. The Raiders will use Justin Fargas, but they don't have the excuse of having their top two running backs on injured reserve. I like the running games more than the passing games here, although "like" is kind of a strong word.
Chargers at Cowboys: The Cowboys need to talk to their schedule-makers. I mean, some of these "late-season collapses" might be because they get Tampa Bay and Kansas City early in the season and San Diego and New Orleans in weeks 14 and 15. Anyway, Jerry Jones wants the Cowboys to use Marion Barber differently. Kind of sounds like the end of the Wade Phillips era when the Cowboys miss the playoffs again. I like both passing games here, and Barber could be OK, too.
Eagles at Giants: DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin both practiced fully on Friday, so it sounds like both will play. No Brian Westbrook. Ahmad Bradshaw should play. My biggest worry about this game is weather; it's the Sunday night game at the Meadowlands, so cold and wind are kind of a given. Might be even nastier than that, so careful with these guys. Giants defense is soft and the Eagles have some problems too, but I'm not expecting a shootout. Definitely the time of season to check weather.com Sunday mornings.
Cardinals at 49ers: Frank Gore is fully healthy, but a lot of people wonder if they should play him. That 15 carries for 20 yards when the teams met in week 1 works against him, his 2 TDs when they met works for him. I'm starting him, cause it's week 14 and he's Frank Gore. But both defenses are better against the run than the pass, I'm not touching Wells or Hightower. It would be a big game if the 49ers hadn't blown a win in Seattle last week. As is, it's still a pretty good Monday night game, with a lot of fantasy playoff starters.
Enjoy the games.
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Posted by JOHN RUPPE | Dec. 11 at 09:48 PM
In last night's update Ian has Quinton Ganther ranked higher than Benson and D. Williams. I have both this week in different leagues and they are definitely not good match ups. Would you guys really play him over the 2 "must starts?" If so, how do you guys get your pants on over your huge webos?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 11 at 09:55 PM
I've personally made the decision to go with Ganther over Marshawn Lynch in a league; both have nice matchups, but Ganther should be close to full-time. I personally WOULD start him over Benson against a very tough Vikings run defense, but I would not bench DeAngelo Williams for a guy like Ganther. If Ian ranks them that way, he would; he's not afraid to go with the strong matchup over the star player. That's not a risk I'm willing to take, myself, but I can certainly see Ganther finishing with better numbers than either player.
Posted by Jay Tennant | Dec. 11 at 11:03 PM
I have Flacco and Rivers. Lately it's been a no-brainer, but with Flacco at Detroit- I'm considering him. I'm leaning to Rivers since he's playing indoors and there is a good chance of rain tomorrow in Baltimore. Any thoughts?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 11 at 11:08 PM
I wouldn't even consider benching Rivers for Flacco. San Diego probably won't run very well against Dallas, and Dallas' offense should have some success making it more of a high-scoring game - good spot for Rivers. I like Flacco's matchup, but I also get worried when it seems Baltimore might do well enough running that they don't have to throw much (like a recent win over Cleveland). Plus Rivers is just better and productive almost every week. I'd move Flacco ahead of some better QBs, but not Rivers.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 12 at 12:06 AM
Andy: I have Cotchery in my lineup as of now with Devin Thomas on bench (ppr league). I still like Gage some, but Fisher has since come out and said that Gage will not be ready to play a full compliment of snaps his first week back from injury. Other available FA's are James Jones, Hartline, Thomas (JAX), Aiken, Lou. Murphy and Schilens. I guess I shouldn't be leery of playing Cotchery in this situation, but I am. He's a good receiver, but with Clemens @ QB and a matchup where Jets could run for 300 yards and win game that way, I can't help but think there may be better value elsewhere. What do you think? Also, in a standard scoring league, my starting RB's as of now are D-Will and Benson. F-Jax and K. Smith are on my bench. I'm not willing to take the risk on Ganther either (he's a FA) but I'm seriously considering F-Jax. What are your thoughts on playing F-Jax over either of my current starting RB's? Thanks, as always, for your help.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 12 at 12:57 AM
I'd use FJax over Benson. I just don't think Benson is so dynamic that he'll do well against a good Vikings run defense, and KC can't stop anyone. If it were me I'd go with Cotchery, he's just most likely to catch a few balls and put up decent yardage. Nothing huge but he's safer than your other options, none of whom look particularly good....total hit or miss guys. If Clemens passes for 175 yards, I could see 75-80 going to Cotchery.
Posted by RYAN OTTE | Dec. 12 at 02:36 AM
Do you think S. Jax will play? I have Jackson, Moreno and Jamaal Charles. Moreno and Charles both play at 1, while Jackson plays at 4. So if he doesn't play and I start him I screwed. What do you guys think?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 12 at 04:03 AM
My feeling is that he'll play -- I'm starting him in a playoff matchup myself. He didn't practice all week last week either and played and was fine. Says he may not practice again all season. I'm going with him, but I'll be watching for news Sunday morning. There's a slight risk, but not too much for me to go with him.
Posted by BILL REHOR | Dec. 12 at 04:38 AM
Have one of those "anything goes" flex positions to fill. Oddly, it's Finley vs. Maclin vs. Chris Brown. TD-heavy scoring with some yardage bonuses. I'm leaning towards Finley right now, but I feel foolish playing a TE when I don't have to. Any thoughts? Appreciate it!
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 12 at 04:55 AM
The Packers sure are throwing to Finley a lot. I would rule out Brown -- the Texans might use all three running backs (Brown, Moats, and Arian Foster -- and give Finley a slight edge over Maclin. Ian also has Finley the highest, incidentally. Finley is a tight end, but he doesn't block; he's essentially a downfield receiver.
Posted by Ryan Osgood | Dec. 12 at 07:52 AM
Love your insight Andy. Would love it more if you can tell me who to start as my 2nd RB in my playoff game (yardage league no PPR): I am starting Grant and have to choose between (excuse me while I choke on bile...) J. Jones, J. Forsett or J. Fargas...I promise not to blame you if you fail me, but will have my undying loyalty if you guide me into the next round...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 12 at 08:20 AM
I'd use Fargas, grudgingly. The division of carries is just too uncertain with the Seattle backs, and the run defense they're facing is better.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 12 at 11:01 PM
Andy: I have seen reports that past couple of days that GB will match Woodson up against Olsen this week. That strategy worked well in their first meeting as he held him to 1 catch. Scaife vs. STL, Heap vs. DET, Scheffler @ Indy and D. Thomas @ ATL are FA options (ppr league). 2 catches for 1 yard from Olsen killed me last week. What do you think?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 13 at 12:03 AM
Peter - I personally would stick with Olsen. My sense is that the other two good options (I exclude Scheffler and Thomas) are for teams that won't have to pass much. Don't hesitate to go with your gut, however.