Andy Richardson
Lot of questions came in regarding lineup decisions on Saturday, a reminder that it's playoff time, and people tend to agonize more about minutiae than in other weeks. It makes sense, but it's also dangerous to overthink things. I usually try to set my lineups early in the week, then go back and look them over based on new information or developments.
My general feeling is that if I lose, I want to lose with choices I can live with. I can live with starting Quinton Ganther if I bench Marshawn Lynch for him, because Lynch hasn't given me much reason to beat myself up over benching him. (A move that paid off.) But if I bench somebody like DeSean Jackson, who's capable of huge numbers in any given week, for a lesser player with a seemingly better matchup, and lose because of it, I'll remember that one for years. It's not, strictly speaking, "Don't bench your studs." It's not benching guys who you believe in, for one reason or another, in favor of a guy who everybody else likes a lot more than you do. I can deal with losing when I trust my instincts. It's when I don't that I'll lament it deep into the offseason.
OK, on to the games.
Bengals at Vikings: I watched most of this game, and am left wondering if the Bengals are really particularly good. We got all excited about them sweeping their division, but now that doesn't look quite as impressive. I think their offense lost a lot when Chris Henry was knocked out for the year -- he was only the No. 4 receiver, but he gave their offense a dimension they don't seem to have right now. Playing conservative might work fine against the Browns and Lions, but against the Vikings? No. I was impressed by Cedric Benson, who's running well, but Carson Palmer and the passing game didn't get it done.
With the Vikings, as they've been in most of their games, they're a really good team. Strong defense, that benefited from getting Antoine Winfield back; he was all over the place. And the offense is basically the Brett Favre to Sidney Rice show, with Adrian Peterson doing everything else. Favre targeted Rice on almost every pass in close, including one that was knocked away at the last second and a touchdown that was erased because Favre was about 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage when he threw it -- oops. But, the Vikings are good. Even without Percy Harvin on the field.
Packers at Bears: It's funny; there are situations where you know Ryan Grant won't do anything, and games where you know he'll be huge. This was one of the latter; a rare game where Aaron Rodgers didn't do much but the Bears couldn't do anything with Grant. This is the cruel part of fantasy football: taking a strong team into the playoffs, facing a lousy team that's been relying on the likes of Ryan Grant, and losing in large part because of his big day. Er, not that it necessarily happened to me. Greg Jennings had a touchdown erased on a questionable ruling; Earl Bennett also lost one, although Johnny Knox caught one shortly thereafter. Green Bay is going to the playoffs, and Aaron Rodgers' fantasy owners, assuming they got through this week, will benefit from his likely bounce-back.
As for the Bears, well, they've got problems on the line. Both of them. And they don't have their top two picks next year. I still like Jay Cutler, at least in terms of talent and bounce-back potential, but part of it is also that the team has so many other problems. Shaky receiving corps (at best). Poor offensive line. Matt Forte doesn't look like a good running back. Probably time to change coaching staffs. If you're holding anything connected with this team this year, you're probably not in the playoffs. And if you've got them in a dynasty league, you're not feeling too good about somebody you thought was part of your nucleus.
Lions at Ravens: If you're reading this site, and you followed our rankings even a little bit, you probably have Ray Rice on your team. And it was a beautiful day to have him, too. More than 200 total yards, a touchdown, a couple of runs of 50ish yards. Imagine if the Ravens hadn't won so easily that Rice didn't get an early rest so Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain could chip in several MORE touchdowns. Joe Flacco finished with decent numbers, too, thanks largely to a short pass to Derrick Mason that turned into an amazing touchdown: he was sandwiched between two tacklers, who bounced off him, fell to the ground, and lay there as he romped 62 yards for a touchdown. Pretty cool play, and nice for those who started either Flacco or Mason -- because neither of those guys were needed for most of the game. I'm just hoping Rice saved something for next week, when I need him even more.
For the Lions, guess no one can doubt Jim Schwartz's decision to go with Matthew Stafford over Daunte Culpepper this season; Culpepper could easily have thrown more than the 2 interceptions he did. But, it was a pretty tough spot for Daunte against an angry Ravens team -- where was that Monday night when they could have used a little more emotions? Guess the flag-happy refs took it away from them. Anyhoo, it's abundantly clear that the head coach isn't the problem with the Lions; probably wasn't the problem a year ago. Instead it's the guy who ran the team's drafts for several years, leaving them with what they've got right now. Which is Matthew Stafford, when healthy; Calvin Johnson; and precious little else. Oh yeah: Kevin Smith is probably done for the year with a knee injury; we'll find out for sure today.
Chargers at Cowboys: Maybe the Cowboys aren't chokers; they might just not be that good. We'll find out for sure when they go to New Orleans next week, probably to lose their third straight game. Dallas spent the first half looking like they wouldn't do anything in this game. They gave the ball to Marion Barber three straight times from the 1-yard line and came up empty, and later missed a short field goal. To their credit, they later drove 99 yards to tie the game at 10 in the third quarter, and played fairly solid defense against a very good San Diego offense. But things don't look good for them. Tony Romo finished with decent numbers, but it wasn't a great offensive day. And Nick Folk again missed a makeable field goal. The Chargers roll on; eight straight wins, a nice return to form by Vincent Jackson, a value-saving touchdown by LaDainian Tomlinson, and more Philip Rivers starring in relative obscurity, except in fantasy leagues.
During the game, DeMarcus Ware got hurt on the kind of play that seems to happen in every game, but usually doesn't result in serious injury -- except for the times it does. His neck got jammed while trying to make a tackle, and the game was stopped for a good 10 minutes, before he was finally carted off. Tough to explain an injury like that to a four-year-old; tough to explain, period, why such things don't happen more often. Ware's injury was described as a neck sprain; sounds like he'll be OK. But it was just the kind of scary reminder you get every once in a while that the guys who play this game are risking an awful lot. Worth remembering when you get them on for screwing up, celebrating too much, or having too much fun out there.
Eagles at Giants: I scoffed at Vegas' 48-point over-under on this game. Yeah; turns out it was way too low. I figured a defensive struggle; instead both teams struggled to play defense. Horrible tackling, blown coverages, turnovers, and the officiating was kind of awful, too. The Eagles should have been able to kick a field goal before the half, I thought Eli Manning got robbed on a fumble....bizarre game with huge plays all over the yard, and one that no doubt turned a lot of playoff fantasy fortunes, not to mention probably deciding the NFC East.
Interesting game for Hakeem Nicks. First, he flat-out dropped a perfectly thrown bomb that would have gone for an 86-yard touchdown. Manning went back to Nicks on the next play with another long throw near the sideline, and he dropped that one too (although it was a tougher catch). So two plays later, Nicks catches a shorter pass, shakes one tackler and spins free of another, and is gone for a long touchdown. DeSean Jackson's punt return touchdown was a thing of beauty; then he got free for a long receiving touchdown, probably winning a playoff matchup for me where I had him, and possibly losing another where I faced McNabb. How do the Giants let Jackson run free in the secondary like that? How has their defense fallen apart so dramatically? Crazy game, for the NFL and for fantasy leagues.
Monday, Monday: After Eagles-Giants, nothing would surprise me out of this one. Defensive battle like the week 1 meeting, or a wild shootout? I like the passing games; someone asked me about starting Alex Smith over Tom Brady and I actually said yes, a move that might pay off. I personally need Larry Fitzgerald and Vernon Davis to come through to save a 2 seed from losing to a 7 -- did I mention I hate eight-team playoffs? And I think Arizona keeps things rolling with something like a 24-20 win.
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Posted by Brian Barrett | Dec. 14 at 04:15 AM
You should probably have given a little review of the NE game as most of your customers probably ended up drafting Moss (he was #6 on the final yardage + td rankings prior to the season). Also, the way Fisher ran CJ until the end of the game when they had a huge lead. 30 pt lead and going for it on 4th from the 1 with a few minutes left. I was half expecting an onsides kick after that td. Was Fisher trying to improve his BCS ranking? He gets the douchebag of the year award if you ask me. Yes, I had Moss and was going against CJ.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 14 at 05:54 AM
Andy: Despite the best efforts of Messers. Cotchery and Olsen to prevent it, it appears that barring something unforeseen, I will be making the playoffs in my 12 team ppr league as the wildcard team. The good part of being the wildcard is that I would get the #1 waiver priority this week. My current RB's are LT, Wells, Ganther (thank you Ian) and Norwood. Current WR's are Welker, S. Smith (NYG), Cotchery, Wallace and D. Thomas. I don't see Norwood as being worth a roster spot over the next two weeks, so I'm considering claiming Arian Foster (Greene, Weaver and DET RB's are also FA's). Kubiak has said he will be the featured back going forward. Sound like a good plan, or should I go with a WR (Gage, James Jones, Hartline, Camarillo, Stuckey, Cribbs, Thomas (JAX), Reg. Brown, Stovall, Lou. Murphy, Schillens are FA's)? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 14 at 06:42 AM
I haven't watched much of the NE-Carolina game yet, although I too may lose a playoff game where I started Moss (and Jeremy Maclin, ouch). What are you gonna do? It was a poor matchup for Moss and a bad week for him not to show up. Regarding Johnson, the Titans are trying to get him to 2,000 yards, so it wasn't overly surprising that he kept playing. I guess if you had Johnson on your team, you're happy. Peter, I imagine I'd take a flier on Foster, with Camarillo second, but I can't imagine actually starting either of them. Good luck.
Posted by Brian Barrett | Dec. 14 at 08:43 AM
Not blaming you guys on Moss, just ranting. As always, great work again this yr. Not used to my season ending this quickly but the CJ death matchup and Romo padding stats after his team was out of it probably did me in. Only V Davis having a subpar game tonight can save me... Thanks for another year of great insight. Best in the biz.