Viva Murillo!

If you owned Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss or Tom Brady, there's a good chance you had a good year and made the playoffs. But if you have Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss and Tom Brady, there's a good chance you got bounced out of the playoffs if they started last week. And if you faced an owner who one of the great Johnsons (Andre or Chris) or Brandon Marshall, I hope you didn't need a win in week 14.

I must admit that I have a bias against head-to-head formats. It seems a little silly to base playoff participants on a random factor like a schedule. Your team doesn't really play against your opponent, so the weight of the contest is misplaced. I could alter a league's schedule and make most of the playoff teams bottom-feeders, and I could make "bad" teams playoff participants -- just by tinkering with a variable that has nothing to do with how well a person drafted or managed their team. Then your entire season can go down the drain based on one week's performance. While that happens to NFL franchises...it happens because another team faced them and defeated them. In fantasy football, we're just comparing unrelated numbers. Nobody's players defeated yours. They just happened to be compared together at the "wrong" week instead of the "right" week. I've always thought we put too much time into this hobby to let such powerful random elements determine the outcome.

That being said, I play in a couple head-to-head leagues, and I concur with the main argument in their favor -- they're fun. There's something to be said for rivalries and trash-talking, last-minute heroics and bitter losses. It's all manufactured since the teams aren't really playing each other, but it's still fun. And if a hobby is fun....isn't that the main reason why we play in the first place?

Well, it wasn't fun if you started Brady and Moss. It wasn't fun if you watched Anquan Boldin fumble away another Arizona possession Monday night, eliminating the chance for some of those garbage-time stats that we love. But if you're still in the hunt for your league's championship, try to remember that the pendulum swings both ways. Your players might be the ones destroying the competition next week, and your opponent might be looking for their players on milk cartons.

In other words, don't make wholesale changes based on what you saw last week. It's just another week -- even if it's one in which your entire season (and a lot of money) is on the line. This is the wrong time to make changes based entirely on what you saw last Sunday or Monday. I won't say you have to "start your starters" because you control your lineup. If you think you'll get more points with someone else, you have to start them. But that's a proactive decision. I'm saying to avoid making a reactive decision, based on what you just saw or what you fear might happen. The truth is that anything could happen. Expecting the worst all the time doesn't accomplish anything but put you in a negative mindset.

So think of it as just another week. If you wouldn't make wholesale changes in week 5, don't make them in week 15. After all, your strategies have gotten you this far. Don't change them now.

I have to admit, even I'm looking forward to some matchups this week. Sure, head-to-head is unpredictable and anything can happen. But on the bright side...it's unpredictable and anything can happen. So stay optimistic, trust your judgment and I'll see you in week 16.

You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.

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