Ian Allan
I’m trying to make sense of the final three weeks of the season. As best I can tell, the two New York teams are going to sneak in as wild cards, and the Cowboys and Ravens will be out.
The pivotal games in the AFC are next week, when the Ravens play the Steelers and the Jets are at the Colts. If Baltimore wins at Pittsburgh (and that’s a coinflip-type game), then the Ravens will finish 10-6 and make the playoffs. But if the Ravens lose there, then I believe the Jets will sneak in. New York will beat Atlanta easily this week. It’s final two games are against division leaders (Colts and Bengals), but both of those teams should rest players for those games, maybe clearing the way for the Jets to get a wild-card spot.
On the NFC side, it’s the Cowboys and Giants battling for the final wild-card spot. Both teams play at Washington (and with Washington playing better now, it might pull an upset in one of those games). Dallas plays at New Orleans on Saturday; an upset is possible – the Cowboys are the far hungrier team – but I’ve got the Saints winning that game. The Giants host Carolina next week. And then both the Giants and Cowboys in week 17 will play division leaders that should be resting players (Vikings and Eagles). If these teams finished tied, the Giants would get in – they beat the Cowboys twice this year.
First-round byes: Saints, Colts, Vikings, Chargers.
Other division winners: Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, Cardinals.
Wild cards: Broncos, Jets, Packers, Giants.
First-round matchups:
Denver at Cincinnati (rematch of opening-day game that ended with Brandon Stokley catching improbable long touchdown).
N.Y. Jets at New England (if Ravens win at Pittsburgh, it will be Denver at New England and Ravens at Cincinnati).
Giants at Philadelphia (Eagles are 2-0 against New York this year).
Green Bay at Arizona (these teams play in week 17).
PROJECTED WINS FOR EACH TEAM
W L
16 0 New Orleans
14 2 Indianapolis
13 3 Minnesota
12 4 San Diego
11 5 New England
11 5 Philadelphia
11 5 Green Bay
10 6 Arizona
10 6 Cincinnati
10 6 Denver
10 6 NY Giants
10 6 NY Jets
10 6 Dallas
9 7 Baltimore
9 7 Miami
9 7 Tennessee
8 8 Jacksonville
8 8 Pittsburgh
8 8 San Francisco
7 9 Atlanta
7 9 Houston
6 10 Buffalo
6 10 Seattle
5 11 Carolina
5 11 Chicago
4 12 Kansas City
4 12 Oakland
4 12 Washington
3 13 Cleveland
3 13 Detroit
2 14 Tampa Bay
1 15 St. Louis
SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
Different from previous weeks in that there’s more guesswork in trying to forecast which teams will take their foot off the gas in weeks 16 and 17. The Colts, for example, have been changed to losers in their final two games. The Vikings and Eagles may play only their backups in the final games, etc.
Arizona
loss San Francisco (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
bye week
win Houston (H)
win Seattle (A)
win NY Giants (A)
loss Carolina (H)
win Chicago (A)
win Seattle (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Tennessee (A)
win Minnesota (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
90% Detroit (A)
90% St. Louis (H)
20% Green Bay (H)
Atlanta
win Miami (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss New England (A)
bye week
win San Francisco (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss Dallas (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
win Washington (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss New Orleans (H)
10% NY Jets (A)
60% Buffalo (H)
45% Tampa Bay (A)
Baltimore
win Kansas City (H)
win San Diego (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
win Denver (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Pittsburgh (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
win Detroit (H)
95% Chicago (H)
45% Pittsburgh (A)
90% Oakland (A)
Buffalo
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
win NY Jets (A)
win Carolina (A)
loss Houston (H)
bye week
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Miami (H)
loss NY Jets (H)
win Kansas City (A)
40% New England (H)
40% Atlanta (A)
51% Indianapolis (H)
Carolina
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Dallas (A)
bye week
win Washington (H)
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Arizona (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
win Atlanta (H)
loss Miami (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss New England (A)
15% Minnesota (H)
25% NY Giants (A)
20% New Orleans (H)
Chicago
loss Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Detroit (H)
bye week
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Arizona (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Green Bay (H)
5% Baltimore (A)
15% Minnesota (H)
45% Detroit (A)
Cincinnati
loss Denver (H)
win Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Baltimore (A)
loss Houston (H)
win Chicago (H)
bye week
win Baltimore (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
loss Oakland (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Detroit (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
25% San Diego (A)
90% Kansas City (H)
20% NY Jets (A)
Cleveland
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Denver (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss Chicago (A)
bye week
loss Baltimore (H)
loss Detroit (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
loss San Diego (H)
win Pittsburgh (H)
43% Kansas City (A)
60% Oakland (H)
40% Jacksonville (H)
Dallas
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Kansas City (A)
bye week
win Atlanta (H)
win Seattle (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
loss Green Bay (A)
win Washington (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
loss San Diego (H)
43% New Orleans (A)
70% Washington (A)
80% Philadelphia (H)
Denver
win Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Oakland (A)
win Dallas (H)
win New England (H)
win San Diego (A)
bye week
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss San Diego (H)
win NY Giants (H)
win Kansas City (A)
loss Indianapolis (A)
90% Oakland (H)
25% Philadelphia (A)
90% Kansas City (H)
Detroit
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
win Washington (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
bye week
loss St. Louis (H)
loss Seattle (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
10% Arizona (H)
8% San Francisco (A)
55% Chicago (H)
Green Bay
win Chicago (H)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
win Detroit (H)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win Dallas (H)
win San Francisco (H)
win Detroit (A)
win Baltimore (H)
win Chicago (A)
45% Pittsburgh (A)
90% Seattle (H)
80% Arizona (A)
Houston
loss NY Jets (H)
win Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win Cincinnati (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Indianapolis (A)
bye week
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Seattle (H)
80% St. Louis (A)
35% Miami (A)
40% New England (H)
Indianapolis
win Jacksonville (H)
win Miami (A)
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
win Tennessee (A)
bye week
win St. Louis (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Houston (H)
win New England (H)
win Baltimore (A)
win Houston (A)
win Tennessee (H)
win Denver (H)
60% Jacksonville (A)
45% NY Jets (H)
49% Buffalo (A)
Jacksonville
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Arizona (H)
win Houston (A)
win Tennessee (H)
loss Seattle (A)
win St. Louis (H)
bye week
loss Tennessee (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win NY Jets (A)
win Buffalo (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
win Houston (H)
loss Miami (H)
40% Indianapolis (H)
20% New England (A)
60% Cleveland (A)
Kansas City
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Dallas (H)
win Washington (A)
loss San Diego (H)
bye week
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Oakland (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
loss San Diego (A)
loss Denver (H)
loss Buffalo (H)
57% Cleveland (H)
10% Cincinnati (A)
10% Denver (A)
Miami
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
loss New Orleans (H)
win NY Jets (A)
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
win Carolina (A)
loss Buffalo (A)
win New England (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
40% Tennessee (A)
65% Houston (H)
60% Pittsburgh (H)
Minnesota
win Cleveland (A)
win Detroit (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Green Bay (H)
win St. Louis (A)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
win Green Bay (A)
bye week
win Detroit (H)
win Seattle (H)
win Chicago (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win Cincinnati (H)
85% Carolina (A)
85% Chicago (A)
40% NY Giants (H)
New England
win Buffalo (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Tennessee (H)
win Tampa Bay (A)
bye week
win Miami (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win NY Jets (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Miami (A)
win Carolina (H)
60% Buffalo (A)
80% Jacksonville (H)
60% Houston (A)
New Orleans
win Detroit (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Buffalo (A)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
win NY Giants (H)
win Miami (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Carolina (H)
win St. Louis (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
win New England (H)
win Washington (A)
win Atlanta (A)
57% Dallas (H)
92% Tampa Bay (H)
80% Carolina (A)
NY Giants
win Washington (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Arizona (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss San Diego (H)
bye week
win Atlanta (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Dallas (H)
loss Philadelphia (H)
55% Washington (A)
75% Carolina (H)
60% Minnesota (A)
NY Jets
win Houston (A)
win New England (H)
win Tennessee (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Miami (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Oakland (A)
loss Miami (H)
bye week
loss Jacksonville (H)
loss New England (A)
win Carolina (H)
win Buffalo (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
90% Atlanta (H)
55% Indianapolis (A)
80% Cincinnati (H)
Oakland
loss San Diego (H)
win Kansas City (A)
loss Denver (H)
loss Houston (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss San Diego (A)
bye week
loss Kansas City (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Dallas (A)
win Pittsburgh (A)
loss Washington (H)
10% Denver (A)
40% Cleveland (A)
10% Baltimore (H)
Philadelphia
win Carolina (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
win Kansas City (H)
bye week
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Oakland (A)
win Washington (A)
win NY Giants (H)
loss Dallas (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Chicago (A)
win Washington (H)
win Atlanta (A)
win NY Giants (A)
80% San Francisco (H)
75% Denver (H)
20% Dallas (A)
Pittsburgh
win Tennessee (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win San Diego (H)
win Detroit (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Minnesota (H)
bye week
win Denver (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss Kansas City (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Cleveland (A)
55% Green Bay (H)
55% Baltimore (H)
40% Miami (A)
San Diego
win Oakland (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
win Miami (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
bye week
loss Denver (H)
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
win NY Giants (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
win Denver (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Dallas (A)
75% Cincinnati (H)
30% Tennessee (A)
57% Washington (H)
San Francisco
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Atlanta (H)
bye week
loss Houston (A)
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
win Chicago (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Seattle (A)
win Arizona (H)
20% Philadelphia (A)
92% Detroit (H)
80% St. Louis (A)
Seattle
win St. Louis (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Chicago (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Arizona (H)
bye week
loss Dallas (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss Arizona (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (A)
win San Francisco (H)
loss Houston (A)
80% Tampa Bay (H)
10% Green Bay (A)
40% Tennessee (H)
St. Louis
loss Seattle (A)
loss Washington (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Detroit (A)
bye week
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Arizona (H)
loss Seattle (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Tennessee (A)
20% Houston (H)
10% Arizona (A)
20% San Francisco (H)
Tampa Bay
loss Dallas (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss Carolina (H)
loss New England (H)
bye week
win Green Bay (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Carolina (A)
loss NY Jets (H)
20% Seattle (A)
8% New Orleans (A)
55% Atlanta (H)
Tennessee
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Houston (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss New England (A)
bye week
win Jacksonville (H)
win San Francisco (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win Houston (A)
win Arizona (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win St. Louis (H)
60% Miami (H)
70% San Diego (H)
60% Seattle (A)
Washington
loss NY Giants (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Detroit (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss Kansas City (H)
loss Philadelphia (H)
bye week
loss Atlanta (A)
win Denver (H)
loss Dallas (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
win Oakland (A)
45% NY Giants (H)
30% Dallas (H)
43% San Diego (A)
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