Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis
The 256 regular season games are complete. Below, therefore, are the final strength of schedule numbers.
Based on our tabulations, the Ravens played the hardest schedule of any of the playoff teams, followed by the two AFC East teams – New England and the Jets.
Four NFC teams appeared to benefit from playing soft schedules – New Orleans, Green Bay, Arizona and Minnesota.
We have the strength of schedule info logged into a database for every year since 1993. Over those 17 seasons (525 teams total), only 18 teams have played schedules easier than what the Saints saw this year. So if you were to adjust their schedule to account for scheduling, they really might be more of an 11-5 team than a 13-3.
The complete numbers appear below. First we’ve got the data using our own system. Further below, see the official NFL version. We like our system better because the NFL system tends to get corrupted by the teams themselves. Notice, for example, that in the NFL system the Rams appear to have played a much harder schedule than the Colts. But that’s due in part because the Rams went only 1-15 (making their opponents look good), while the Colts went 14-2 (making their opponents look bad). Remove those games and the St. Louis schedule actually was easier than Indianapolis’ – and that’s the fairer, more meaningful analysis, since it would have played out that way had the teams switched schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, 2009 (Fantasy Index version)
Final strength of schedule numbers for the 2009 regular season, based on how opponents fared in games against other teams.
Win Loss Pct
106 134 .442 New Orleans
108 132 .450 Green Bay
108 132 .450 Arizona
109 131 .454 Minnesota
111 129 .463 Seattle
113 127 .471 San Diego
114 126 .475 Washington
114 126 .475 San Francisco
118 122 .492 St. Louis
118 122 .492 Pittsburgh
118 122 .492 Jacksonville
118 122 .492 Chicago
119 121 .496 Philadelphia
119 121 .496 Indianapolis
120 120 .500 Kansas City
120 120 .500 Detroit
120 120 .500 Dallas
120 120 .500 Cleveland
120 120 .500 Cincinnati
122 118 .508 Houston
122 118 .508 Buffalo
122 118 .508 Atlanta
124 116 .517 Oakland
125 115 .521 NY Jets
126 114 .525 New England
127 113 .529 Denver
127 113 .529 Baltimore
129 111 .538 Tampa Bay
129 111 .538 NY Giants
130 110 .542 Tennessee
130 110 .542 Carolina
134 106 .558 Miami
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, 2009 (NFL version)
Final strength of schedule numbers for the 2009 regular season, using the combined win-loss records of opponent (the standard NFL version).
Win Loss Pct
109 147 .426 New Orleans
113 143 .441 Minnesota
113 143 .441 Green Bay
114 142 .445 Arizona
116 140 .453 San Diego
121 135 .473 Indianapolis
122 134 .477 Seattle
122 134 .477 San Francisco
124 132 .484 Philadelphia
125 131 .488 Pittsburgh
125 131 .488 Dallas
126 130 .492 Washington
126 130 .492 Cincinnati
127 129 .496 Jacksonville
127 129 .496 Chicago
129 127 .504 Houston
129 127 .504 Atlanta
131 125 .512 Cleveland
132 124 .516 NY Jets
132 124 .516 New England
132 124 .516 Kansas City
132 124 .516 Buffalo
133 123 .520 St. Louis
134 122 .523 Detroit
134 122 .523 Baltimore
135 121 .527 Oakland
135 121 .527 Denver
137 119 .535 NY Giants
138 118 .539 Tennessee
138 118 .539 Carolina
142 114 .555 Tampa Bay
143 113 .559 Miami
—Ian Allan
- Comments [6]
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Posted by John Evans | Jan. 06 at 02:01 PM
Isn't strength of schedule a joke in a way? I mean...a winning team will have a easier strength of schedule than a losing team...and that is because simple mathematics. A 13-3 team will contribute to its opponents losing, whereas a 1-15 team will contribute to its opponents winning. If you look at the list, most of the other teams with easy schedules are also teams that had good records: Green Bay, Arizona, and Minnesota.
Posted by john stolzmann | Jan. 06 at 03:59 PM
John Evans is right that winning teams, on average, will have easier schedules due to the fact that they, in fact, won. However, he is probably thinking it has more of an effect than it really does. Suppose a team goes 16-0. If the teams they faced were average, then they would win (on average) 7.5 out of their other 15 games, for a win percentage of 7.5/16, or almost 47%. So New Orleans clearly did play a much easier than average schedule, even if the fact that they won 13 games skewed it slightly.
Posted by john stolzmann | Jan. 06 at 04:04 PM
Another way of looking at it. The teams that New Orleans faced had a combined record of 109-147. Take out the games that New Orleans themselves contributed to that record, and the teams still had a pretty bad 106-134 record (44.2%).
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jan. 07 at 12:22 AM
Apparently, I didn't explain myself clearly enough. For the strength of schedule info I'm compiling (and it's the first of the two charts), I'm setting aside teams own games. The Saints' opponents, for example, in GAMES AGAINST OTHER TEAMS, went 106-134. So just an average team, it seems, would have gone 9-7 (rather than 8-8) against that schedule. Including all games, the Saints' opponents went 109-147.
Posted by THOMAS WRIGHT | Jan. 07 at 10:09 AM
Ian Anyway you could post this same date for previous seasons? Have a bit of an argument going about the Steelers Schedule last year. Thanks!
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jan. 14 at 05:35 AM
Thomas: I'm just seeing your question now. The Steelers last year were expected to play the hardest schedule. They wound up playing the second-hardest schedule, behind the Browns. Combined win-loss record of Pittsburgh's opponents (in games against other teams) was 129-108-3.